National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDGYX Received: 2017-10-28 20:01 UTC


569 
FXUS61 KGYX 282001
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
401 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm, moist air will continue to be transported northward on a
southerly wind tonight and Sunday as a frontal system moves
toward New England from the west. Low pressure will develop over
the Carolina coast and track northward along this front into New
England Sunday night. The low will strengthen as it moves
northward, bringing a period of heavy rain and strong wind as it
moves by. A cold front pushes through early Monday as the low
exits to the north, ushering in colder air on a gusty west wind.
High pressure builds in from the west through the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
Tonight should be rather tranquil compared to the following 
24-36 hours, as sfc high begins to shift across the maritimes. 
Will see clouds overspread the region, especially later tonight,
and there's an outside chance of shower after midnight in NH, 
especially in the mtns. Lows in the mid 40s to low 50s, will 
occur this evening, with temps steady or slowly rising after 
midnight. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND MONDAY/...
Sunday will see develop low pres over the mid-Atlantic region,
merge with weak tropical system moving N along the Atlantic 
coast, which will begin to intensify late in the day. Will see 
a increasing chc for showers from W to east, but steady rain is
expected to hold off until late in the day in NH and probably 
until Sun evening in ME. SE winds will begin to increase in the 
afternoon, but will generally stay in the 10-20 mph range 
through the day. Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. 

Sunday night will see the bulk of the effects from the coastal
storm passing across far wrn New England. The two impacts of
concern will be the potential for flooding and strong damaging
winds. Still some uncertainty on both these fronts, not so much
as to whether we will get some strong winds and heavy rain, that
looks likely, but more on the intensity of both the rain and 
the winds, which will affect their impact. 

Wind: There will be a rather strong low-mid level jet which will
likely be in excess of 60 kts moving through generally between 
midnight and 8-9 AM. The question will be the potential for
these winds to mix down to the sfc given decent inversion in
place N occlusion. History says its hard to mix down warning
winds in this S-SE flow event, but not impossible. Some signs
that we may see a brief break into warm sector, at least enough
to mix close to these winds around and shortly after daybreak
Monday, especially on the coast, so the watch was left in place,
and can take a look at another model run before making decision.
Also, 12Z Euro show slower development as the low crosses our
latitude to the west, and showing slightly lower 925 mb winds 
than previous runs. Will likely need a wind advisory across the 
entire area as well. Winds will diminish somewhat for a couple 
hours mid to late morning on Monday, but will likely pick up 
again to around advisory levels when they switch to west Monday 
afternoon.

Rain: The rain will be heaviest during Sunday and into early
Monday. as the low level surges tropical moisture over the
inversion. The bulk of the rain from this system will fall
Sunday and could see most of it fall then. Localized flash 
flooding is possible Sunday along with a better likelihood of 
urban and poor drainage flooding. Also watching river flooding 
in the mountains, particularly the Pemi, Saco and Swifts 
rivers. The rain will taper off to showers during Monday 
morning. Highs Monday will be in the morning generally in the 
upper 50s to low 60s and then the temps will fall on the gusty 
winds in the afternoon. 


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Colder air will continue to rush in on a westerly wind Monday
night. Pressure gradient remains pretty tight with the intense
low pressure off to our north and high pressure over the
Southeast states. Thus we may not lose our wind gusts overnight,
allowing the low levels to stay mixed. High pressure builds
toward the area on Tuesday with temperatures only rising into
the mid 50s which is actually above normal for this time of 
year believe it or not. The high will slide by Thursday night,
so we will get some decent radiational cooling conditions again
with the cold spots dropping below freezing. 

High pressure moves east on Wednesday with a return southerly
flow setting up once again. Models are not very clear on the
details of the waves that move toward our area later next week,
but the broader idea is that another frontal system will
approach from the west with rain chances primarily from 
Wednesday night through Friday depending on when the various
frontal features move through. This is not looking like an
overly wet system like the past couple, as the source region is
out of the center of the country rather than the tropical
Atlantic. 

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Conds deteriorate on Sunday especially in the
afternoon in rain and low clouds, with IFR or lower expected Sun
night into early Monday. Sunday night will see strong S-SE 
winds, especially along the coast with gusts of 35-45 kt 
possible. The winds shift to the West during Monday morning, but
some gusts to 30 kt will be possible at all terminals. Look for
improvement to VFR by midday Monday, with mainly VFR through 
Wed

Long Term...Should see VFR conditions with a stiff west wind
continuing through the Tuesday. Calmer conditions arrive on
Wednesday with continued VFR conditions. The next system may
begin bringing IFR conditions and some rain as early as
Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Will hold the storm watch as is for now, although
confidence is still pretty good for a period of Storm force
winds between midnight and 8 AM Monday. SCA conditions will
develop during Sunday, and ramp up through the evening. Seas of
up to 20 ft are expected as well late Sunday night into early 
Monday. Winds will diminish on Monday, but should stay gales 
through the day. 

Long Term...West southwesterly winds behind the front will
likely remain near gale force through Monday night while slowly
diminishing. Winds may not fall below 25 KT until Tuesday night.
Wave heights will be slow to fall as well. The most calm
conditions will be on Wednesday when high pressure crosses the
Gulf of Maine. A southerly flow sets up again for Thursday as
the high moves east.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Given current forecast QPF, will likely see some
minor flooding on rivers in the mtns, with the Pemi, the Saco, 
and the Swift all rising above flood. Since there is the 
possibility of locally higher amounts, especially in these 
areas, do need to watch for more significantly flooding on these
rivers. 
 

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flash Flood Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon 
     for MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
     High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning 
     for MEZ018>028.
NH...Flash Flood Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon 
     for NHZ001>015.
     High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning 
     for NHZ014.
MARINE...Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for 
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Cempa
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Kimble