Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDGYX Received: 2015-12-21 20:26 UTC
953
FXUS61 KGYX 212026
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
326 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH CANADA WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW TO NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY... BRINGING RAIN
TO THE REGION. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK OF FAIR WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL THREATEN LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND
DAY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON TAP.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING FROM VERY HIGH UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND MUST FALL THROUGH
A WARM BUT DRY MID TO LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. THUS MUCH OF THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY TO REACH THE GROUND AND WILL SERVE TO
COOL THE MID LEVEL WARM/DRY AIR AS IT EVAPORATES. EVENTUALLY SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
POSSIBLY EAST TOWARD THE BANGOR AREA. THE COOLING OF THE WARM
LAYER BY THE EVAPORATING PRECIPITATION MAKES THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE RATHER COMPLICATED AND UNCERTAIN. THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM
LAYER WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER... THE COOLING OF THIS
LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR A CLEANER TRANSITION BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THIS TIME THOUGH A FEW POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. EXPECT THE RAIN
TO MOVE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON. TEMPERATURES
REACH THE 40S TO LOW 50S. NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY BUSY PERIOD OF WEATHER COMING UP WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
AND AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND EVERY 18-24 HOURS. LARGE SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HELPS TO STEER SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH.
WE REMAIN VERY WARM OVERALL WITH THE HELP OF DEEP SPRING-LIKE
CYCLONES DEEPENING TO OUR WEST WORKING IN TANDEM WITH THE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PULL WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE
REGION. 925MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE
AND DAY APPROACH 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMALS...TRANSLATING
TO THE 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS CHRISTMAS EVE. IT IS SAFE TO SAY
SANTA COULD WEAR BERMUDA SHORTS THIS YEAR.
WITH THIS WARMTH COMES QUITE A BIT OF RAIN AS WELL HOWEVER...WITH
NOTABLE PW ANOMALIES (+4 TO MORE THAN +6!). EXPECT WHEN IT DOES
RAIN FOR IT TO RAIN FAIRLY HARD WITH WARM RAIN PROCESSES IN
PLACE. A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH TRAIL THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE). THE SURFACE LOW
WILL HAVE SPIRITED AWAY TO THE NORTH AND DEEPENED CLOSE TO A 970MB
CYCLONE. WITH THIS HEAT IT IS VERY POSSIBLE WE WILL SEE SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES/ CONVECTION AS THE BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES NORMALIZE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOMEWHAT AS DRIER
COOLER AIR MOVES IN. CHRISTMAS DAY ITSELF SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE AN ODD UPSLOPE SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
A QUICK MOVING OCCLUSION CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS
ONE POSSIBLY ACTUALLY BRINGING SNOW AS WELL AS RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS STAY VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT
CLOUDS AND RAIN BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN ON TUESDAY... IMPROVING TO
VFR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...CEILINGS AND TO SOME EXTENT VISIBILITIES WILL VARY
FROM LIFR TO VFR AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN
TIME OF CONCERN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN
HEAVY RAIN /AND PERHAPS MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS IN PATCHY DENSE FOG.
FINALLY GUSTS WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING FOR TERMINALS NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL GUSTING TO AROUND GALE FORCE SO
WILL LET THE GALE WARNING CONTINUE UNTIL ITS NATURAL EXPIRATION.
WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE ABLE
TO BE DROPPED BY MORNING.
LONG TERM...LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING EXPECT
SEAS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. GALES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS
WHILE THE BAYS WILL MOST LIKELY SUFFICE WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HANES