National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDGRR Received: 2019-12-02 20:22 UTC

FXUS63 KGRR 022022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
322 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019


Issued at 322 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019

-Benign weather pattern this week with near to above normal


.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019

An extended break from the recent active pattern is in store this

It would seem the threat of freezing fog tonight is lower since 
the stratus deck is not clearing as guidance had suggested. If we
manage to keep these clouds around tonight, and it looks like we 
will, it will prevent the good radiational cooling needed to form
fog. May need to raise the low temps a bit too. The best chance 
of any clearing is north of I-96 this evening. 

A shortwave and weak sfc cold front/trough passes east through 
the region late Tuesday. However moisture is lacking and the
chance of measurable precip is quite low. Guidance is however 
showing some very light precipitation in the cold
advection/cyclonic flow pattern behind this feature late Tuesday 
night and Wednesday. Given the shallow moisture profiles, this 
would probably just be flurries and/or drizzle if anything at 

Sfc ridge comes across on Thursday before another cold front
slides through Thursday night. ECMWF and Canadian/Gem are trying 
to form a sfc low over cntl Lwr MI with some light snow 
accumulations across nrn Lwr MI. It's possible some of this could 
impact the U.S. 10 corridor, especially if it trends farther 

Next weekend looks potentially mild in southwest flow regime around
a sfc high over the Mid Atlantic Region. Could see highs well 
into the 40s. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019

The shallow stratus deck with bases of 1000-1500 ft is being quite
stubborn. Latest thinking is that these clouds will probably hang
on this afternoon, especially south and east of GRR, although we 
should see some breaks or thin spots at times. 

Even if any clearing takes place later today and this evening, 
the expectation is for more stratus to redevelop tonight. Went 
with MVFR cigs tonight, but some IFR is also possible. Do not 
think fog will be an issue since the stratus will prevent 
radiational cooling, but any place that experiences clear skies 
for a few hours tonight could fog in. 

Numerous MVFR cigs lingering into Tuesday as well, with winds 
becoming southerly around 10 kts. 


Issued at 322 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019

Although the current marine headlines expire this evening, new
ones will likely be needed for Tuesday as southwest winds 
increase ahead of incoming front. Hazardous winds and waves 
continuing in the northwest flow behind the front Tuesday night 
and Wednesday. 


Issued at 1249 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019

All rivers in the Grand and Muskegon basins are running very high 
for this time of year, due to continued wetter than normal 
conditions. The good news is that the Saturday Night storm dropped 
snow over the bulk of these areas, so a gradual snowmelt will be 
much more manageable for the rivers compared to another rain storm.

The middle and lower portions of the Grand River are near bankfull, 
with the lowest streets along the river near Comstock Park and 
Robinson Township the most likely to see a little water over the 
next few days. No significant flooding is expected, and quiet 
weather over the next week should provide a much-needed breather for 
the rivers to recover from all this rain.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ848-

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ844-845.