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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDGRR Received: 2019-12-02 20:22 UTC
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802 FXUS63 KGRR 022022 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 322 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 LATEST UPDATE... Synopsis/Discussion/Marine .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 322 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 -Benign weather pattern this week with near to above normal temperatures && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Monday) Issued at 322 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 An extended break from the recent active pattern is in store this week. It would seem the threat of freezing fog tonight is lower since the stratus deck is not clearing as guidance had suggested. If we manage to keep these clouds around tonight, and it looks like we will, it will prevent the good radiational cooling needed to form fog. May need to raise the low temps a bit too. The best chance of any clearing is north of I-96 this evening. A shortwave and weak sfc cold front/trough passes east through the region late Tuesday. However moisture is lacking and the chance of measurable precip is quite low. Guidance is however showing some very light precipitation in the cold advection/cyclonic flow pattern behind this feature late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Given the shallow moisture profiles, this would probably just be flurries and/or drizzle if anything at all. Sfc ridge comes across on Thursday before another cold front slides through Thursday night. ECMWF and Canadian/Gem are trying to form a sfc low over cntl Lwr MI with some light snow accumulations across nrn Lwr MI. It's possible some of this could impact the U.S. 10 corridor, especially if it trends farther south. Next weekend looks potentially mild in southwest flow regime around a sfc high over the Mid Atlantic Region. Could see highs well into the 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1252 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 The shallow stratus deck with bases of 1000-1500 ft is being quite stubborn. Latest thinking is that these clouds will probably hang on this afternoon, especially south and east of GRR, although we should see some breaks or thin spots at times. Even if any clearing takes place later today and this evening, the expectation is for more stratus to redevelop tonight. Went with MVFR cigs tonight, but some IFR is also possible. Do not think fog will be an issue since the stratus will prevent radiational cooling, but any place that experiences clear skies for a few hours tonight could fog in. Numerous MVFR cigs lingering into Tuesday as well, with winds becoming southerly around 10 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 Although the current marine headlines expire this evening, new ones will likely be needed for Tuesday as southwest winds increase ahead of incoming front. Hazardous winds and waves continuing in the northwest flow behind the front Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1249 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 All rivers in the Grand and Muskegon basins are running very high for this time of year, due to continued wetter than normal conditions. The good news is that the Saturday Night storm dropped snow over the bulk of these areas, so a gradual snowmelt will be much more manageable for the rivers compared to another rain storm. The middle and lower portions of the Grand River are near bankfull, with the lowest streets along the river near Comstock Park and Robinson Township the most likely to see a little water over the next few days. No significant flooding is expected, and quiet weather over the next week should provide a much-needed breather for the rivers to recover from all this rain. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ848- 849. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ844-845. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Meade DISCUSSION...Meade AVIATION...Meade MARINE...Meade HYDROLOGY...AMD