National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDGRR Received: 2019-01-12 04:53 UTC

FXUS63 KGRR 120453

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1153 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019


Issued at 312 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

- Winter storm largely misses us to the south.

- Dry Sunday through Tuesday.

- Highs 30-35.


.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 312 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

Forecast concerns focus on a winter storm moving across the Midwest 
and Tennessee Valley.

The ecmwf and gfs are in good agreement and pretty consistent for 
several runs showing a winter storm moving from north Texas across 
Tennessee Saturday. The ecmwf continues to push light snow into 
southern Lower, which is a bit farther north compared to the gfs. 
Given how far south this system is, we didn't get carried away with 
pops. We continue to show 60 pops over the far southern counties 
lowering to around 15 percent near I-96 Saturday afternoon. Snow 
conditions will range from flurries in Grand Rapids to a half inch 
or so of snow south of I-94. 

We could see some impacts on I-94 though. Sometimes these half inch 
accumulations coupled with temperatures a degree or two below 
freezing can lead to icy roads.

After the low moves east, high pressure will build in and dry 
weather is anticipated from Sunday through Tuesday. A clipper moving 
across Ontario Wednesday may provide a slight chance of rain/snow, 
but we're not expecting much if anything.   


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1153 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

Ceilings will hold steady at 6000-7000 feet at MKG/GRR/LAN 
through the TAF period. At AZO/BTL/JXN, ceilings will decrease
toward 3500 ft by early afternoon. While areas along the 
Indiana/Michigan border will experiencing light snow with 
associated restrictions in visibility and ceiling heights, it
seems AZO/BTL/JXN will remain just north of the light snow with 
VFR conditions prevailing. Should the snow end up tracking over
AZO/BTL/JXN, ceilings and visibilities would drop toward 2000 ft
and 3 miles, respectively. Easterly winds at 5-10 knots will 
prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period.


Issued at 312 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

Wind and waves will remain favorable for small craft through the 


Issued at 330 PM EST Wed Jan 9 2019

Water levels are dropping across the area as cold and dry conditions 
have settled into the area. The Maple River at Maple Rapids 
continues to slowly recover from the multiple rain events earlier in 
the month. Water levels are still near bankfull, but will continue 
to drop over the coming days. 

Meanwhile, with the return of cold temperatures, ice production has 
kicked into high gear on many of the streams in the area. A small 
ice jam formed overnight along the Looking Glass River, causing the 
river near Eagle to rise to near bankfull. No flooding was reported, 
and water levels have dropped back down significantly today as 
temperatures have warmed. Additional, likely smaller, ice jams are 
possible each of the next several days as temperatures stay below 
freezing at night. Ice formation is also evident on the Flat River, 
but is not expected to cause any issues at this time.