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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDGRR Received: 2019-01-11 23:40 UTC
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849 FXUS63 KGRR 112340 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 640 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 312 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019 - Winter storm largely misses us to the south. - Dry Sunday through Tuesday. - Highs 30-35. && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Friday) Issued at 312 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019 Forecast concerns focus on a winter storm moving across the Midwest and Tennessee Valley. The ecmwf and gfs are in good agreement and pretty consistent for several runs showing a winter storm moving from north Texas across Tennessee Saturday. The ecmwf continues to push light snow into southern Lower, which is a bit farther north compared to the gfs. Given how far south this system is, we didn't get carried away with pops. We continue to show 60 pops over the far southern counties lowering to around 15 percent near I-96 Saturday afternoon. Snow conditions will range from flurries in Grand Rapids to a half inch or so of snow south of I-94. We could see some impacts on I-94 though. Sometimes these half inch accumulations coupled with temperatures a degree or two below freezing can lead to icy roads. After the low moves east, high pressure will build in and dry weather is anticipated from Sunday through Tuesday. A clipper moving across Ontario Wednesday may provide a slight chance of rain/snow, but we're not expecting much if anything. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 640 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019 VFR conditions will continue through Saturday morning, then some lower clouds and snow will affect far southern Lower Michigan in the afternoon. Visibility and ceilings will lower by 18Z from AZO to JXN with some IFR possible. Winds will be east 5 to 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 312 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019 Wind and waves will remain favorable for small craft through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 330 PM EST Wed Jan 9 2019 Water levels are dropping across the area as cold and dry conditions have settled into the area. The Maple River at Maple Rapids continues to slowly recover from the multiple rain events earlier in the month. Water levels are still near bankfull, but will continue to drop over the coming days. Meanwhile, with the return of cold temperatures, ice production has kicked into high gear on many of the streams in the area. A small ice jam formed overnight along the Looking Glass River, causing the river near Eagle to rise to near bankfull. No flooding was reported, and water levels have dropped back down significantly today as temperatures have warmed. Additional, likely smaller, ice jams are possible each of the next several days as temperatures stay below freezing at night. Ice formation is also evident on the Flat River, but is not expected to cause any issues at this time. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...04 DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...Ostuno HYDROLOGY...AMD MARINE...04