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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDGRR Received: 2019-01-11 23:40 UTC

FXUS63 KGRR 112340

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
640 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019


Issued at 312 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

- Winter storm largely misses us to the south.

- Dry Sunday through Tuesday.

- Highs 30-35.


.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 312 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

Forecast concerns focus on a winter storm moving across the Midwest 
and Tennessee Valley.

The ecmwf and gfs are in good agreement and pretty consistent for 
several runs showing a winter storm moving from north Texas across 
Tennessee Saturday. The ecmwf continues to push light snow into 
southern Lower, which is a bit farther north compared to the gfs. 
Given how far south this system is, we didn't get carried away with 
pops. We continue to show 60 pops over the far southern counties 
lowering to around 15 percent near I-96 Saturday afternoon. Snow 
conditions will range from flurries in Grand Rapids to a half inch 
or so of snow south of I-94. 

We could see some impacts on I-94 though. Sometimes these half inch 
accumulations coupled with temperatures a degree or two below 
freezing can lead to icy roads.

After the low moves east, high pressure will build in and dry 
weather is anticipated from Sunday through Tuesday. A clipper moving 
across Ontario Wednesday may provide a slight chance of rain/snow, 
but we're not expecting much if anything.   


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 640 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

VFR conditions will continue through Saturday morning, then some
lower clouds and snow will affect far southern Lower Michigan in
the afternoon. Visibility and ceilings will lower by 18Z from AZO
to JXN with some IFR possible. Winds will be east 5 to 10 knots. 


Issued at 312 PM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

Wind and waves will remain favorable for small craft through the 


Issued at 330 PM EST Wed Jan 9 2019

Water levels are dropping across the area as cold and dry conditions 
have settled into the area. The Maple River at Maple Rapids 
continues to slowly recover from the multiple rain events earlier in 
the month. Water levels are still near bankfull, but will continue 
to drop over the coming days. 

Meanwhile, with the return of cold temperatures, ice production has 
kicked into high gear on many of the streams in the area. A small 
ice jam formed overnight along the Looking Glass River, causing the 
river near Eagle to rise to near bankfull. No flooding was reported, 
and water levels have dropped back down significantly today as 
temperatures have warmed. Additional, likely smaller, ice jams are 
possible each of the next several days as temperatures stay below 
freezing at night. Ice formation is also evident on the Flat River, 
but is not expected to cause any issues at this time.