National Weather Service Raw Text Product

653 
FXUS63 KGLD 061624
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1024 AM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 AM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022

Went ahead with blowing dust warning across SW Nebraska and a
large portion of NW Kansas. Started getting several reports of
zero visibility and decided an upgrade to a warning was necessary.
Expanded the advisory to include Graham and Norton counties as
dust being observed both at Norton AWOS (7 miles) and satellite.

UPDATE Issued at 957 AM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022

Widespread dust developing across the area now. A couple distinct
larger areas are showing themselves on satellite. The first is
across SW Nebraska and into Cheyenne, Rawlins, and Decatur
counties in NW Kansas. The second one includes Kit Carson and
Cheyenne Counties in E Colorado, extending southeast into Wallace
and Greeley counties in NW Kansas. This is a potentially dangerous
situation developing. For the moment, issued a blowing dust
advisory for the locations of the bigger plumes. However, it's
quite possible that warnings will be needed soon as we're starting
to get a few reports of near zero visibility. So far, those
reports are confined to very localized situations. If things
become more widespread with near zero visibility, warnings could
be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 447 AM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022

At the beginning of the short term period, the latest RAP analysis 
shows the CWA underneath the base of a trough with an upper air low 
over the MN/SD border. Current satellite imagery and obs show a good 
amount of cloud cover along and south of the KS/NE border with the 
clouds moving eastward. As passed by the prior shift, there looks to 
be a wave cloud action coming off the Rockies that is allowing for 
some nocturnal mixing that is speeding winds up for a bit and 
kicking up blowing dust in the CO counties as reduced visibilities 
were seen. There is a concern that this cloud cover may keep 
overnight low temperatures a little bit warmer, so that winds may 
pick up earlier than expected in previous forecast due to earlier 
mixing brought on by daytime heating. Because of this, the start of 
High Wind Warning for today was extended by a few hours. During the 
day on Wednesday, models continue to show the upper air low moving 
towards the western Lake Superior shoreline by the evening hours 
allowing for the CWA to have a west-northwesterly flow aloft. On 
Thursday, forecast guidance depicts the upper air low strengthening 
and moving southward into northern WI. This movement will place the 
back end of the trough over the CWA yielding a north-northwesterly 
flow aloft throughout the day as the low continues its movement 
towards the southern Lake Michigan shoreline. On Friday morning, the 
CWA's flow aloft turns northerly as the low moves eastward taking 
the trough along with it a bit and a trailing upper air ridge moves 
over the Rockies. By Friday night, the flow over the CWA turns 
northwesterly as the slightly positively tilted axis of the ridge is 
expected to move over the area just west of the CWA.

At the surface, strong winds are expected for the first two days of 
the short term period within the Tri-State area with lighter, but 
still windy conditions on Friday. High Wind Warnings and Red Flag 
Warnings are in effect for the entire Tri-State area on Wednesday 
and Thursday. For Wednesday, models show northwesterly wind winds 
gusting up to 65 mph with minimum RH values as low as 16 percent 
during the afternoon hours. Model forecast soundings have been quite 
consistent with this and wind gusts up to 45 kts have been seen 
overnight already at a few sites in the western half of the CWA. 
Added some silent PoPs in the northeastern portions of the CWA 
during the afternoon as the HRRR shows a potential for some light 
rain around 20Z, but do not have the greatest confidence. For 
Thursday, opted to upgrade the High Wind Watch and the Fire Weather 
Watch to a High Wind Warning and Red Flag Warning because north-
northwesterly wind gusts up to 60 mph are anticipated along with 
minimum RH values as low as 18 percent. The decision to upgrade the 
fire weather product was made due to the expected strong winds, 
partner requests, dry fuels, and GFDI values near or above 100 even 
though the minimum RH looks to stay above but near fire weather 
criteria. As for the winds, continued to stay the course of
collaboration with using a blend of the NBMEXP/NBM 90th 
percentile on Thursday. Latest GFS soundings show a good chance to
meet and exceed high wind criteria during Thursday afternoon, 
while NAM is borderline in some areas. Patchy to areas of blowing
dust still remains a concern on both Wednesday and Thursday 
during the high wind events. Visibilities could drop down to 1 to 
3 miles in some locations based on similar past events though will
monitor in case conditions warrant an advisory. Local research 
blowing dust parameters were used to approximate the blowing dust 
potential in the grids in 3-hr blocks. Will be continuing to 
monitor Friday's fire weather potential, but it looks like peak 
wind gusts are not expected to occur at the same time as the 
lowest RH. Elevated to near-critical fire weather may be possible 
if they start to coincide. 

Daytime highs on Wednesday expect to range between the upper 40s and 
upper 50s followed by highs on Thursday in the lower to middle 50s 
Highs on Friday warm up a bit to around the 60 degree mark. 
Overnight lows for Wednesday expect to be between the middle 20s and 
middle 30s with lows on Thursday night between the lower 20s and 
lower 30s. Friday's overnight low temperatures look to be in the 
middle 20s to lower 30s range.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022

In the extended forecast period models have a strong upper level 
ridge developing back across the region by Saturday. The upper
level ridge shifts east on Sunday. Models develop an upper level
low across eastern CO/parts of KS/southern NE region next
Wednesday. Models having some differences which would impact
the weather across the Tri-State Region. 

On Saturday a warm front is expected to be across eastern CO
region by 12z. By Sunday morning a surface low pressure is
projected to be across Kansas with a warm front across
central/eastern KS and a cold front across western KS. By Monday
the cold front is across parts of eastern and southern KS and
becomes stationary across parts of CO. By Tuesday the front
becomes stationary across parts of western KS. On next Wednesday 
a strong low pressure system develops across Kansas. 

Elected to increase temperatures slightly on Saturday with the
ridge building in and increase precipitation chances slightly with
strong system next Wednesday. We will have to monitor fire weather
potential this weekend with the greatest threat for potential on 
Saturday at this time. 

Afternoon high temperatures in the extended are to be warmer by 
Saturday and then cooler the remainder of the extended period. 
High temperatures will be in the 70s on Saturday. Temperatures 
are currently projected to decrease to lower 60s to lower 70s by 
Sunday. Temperatures are currently expected to decrease to the
lower 50s to lower 60s by Tuesday and into the 40s and lower 50s
by next Wednesday. 

Expect overnight low temperatures to be in the lower 30s to lower
40s Saturday night. Overnight low temperatures currently projected
to be mainly in the 30s Sunday Night and Monday Night. By Tuesday
Night overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 20s to lower
30s. 

Main Concern in the extended forecast at this time is fire 
potential on Saturday and the strong system approaching by next
Wednesday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 543 AM MDT Wed Apr 6 2022

Strong winds are expected today at both terminals with a High 
Wind Warning in effect this afternoon. KGLD expects VFR conditions
throughout the 12Z TAF period beginning with northwesterly winds
at 25G35 kts that increase to 31G46 kts at 15Z with blowing dust
possible. By 17Z, KGLD winds speed up to 28G52 kts before
decreasing to 28G38 kts at 00Z. By 04Z, KGLD sees north-
northwesterly LLWS of 50 kts at 2 kft that lasts until 08Z with 
winds around 20G30 kts. KMCK also sees VFR conditions throughout 
the forecast period starting with northwesterly winds at 20G30 kts
with LLWS of 50 kts at 2 kft. By 15Z, KMCK sees blowing dust
chances begin with winds speeding up to 30G40 kts and then the
winds increase to 35G52 kts at 17Z. KMCK winds expect to slow down
to around 22 kts at 02Z, but then become 20G30 kts by 06Z with a
broken cloud ceiling at 5 kft. 


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for 
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM 
     CDT/ Thursday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for 
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM 
     CDT/ Thursday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     Blowing Dust Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for 
     KSZ001>003-013>015.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for 
     KSZ004-016-027-041.

CO...High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Thursday for COZ090>092.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ252>254.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ091-092.

     High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ090>092.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254.

NE...High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for 
     NEZ079>081.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM 
     CDT/ Thursday for NEZ079>081.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for 
     NEZ079>081.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM 
     CDT/ Thursday for NEZ079>081.

     Blowing Dust Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for 
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...076