National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Received: 2019-03-16 08:08 UTC


057 
FXUS64 KFWD 160808
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
308 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019


.SHORT TERM...
/Today and tonight/

Weak ridging aloft and a slowly modifying Continental Polar 
airmass will result in a mostly sunny and cool day with afternoon 
highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Even though these 
temperatures will be very similar to Friday, it should feel a bit 
warmer today since wind speed will be much lighter (in th 5 to 10 
mph range).

The upper ridge axis will shift eastward tonight while a shortwave
trough translates across the region. Mid level moisture (between
700 mb and 500 mb)associated with the shortwave will result in an
increase in clouds tonight. Although a few elevated showers may
accompany the shortwave, it is unlikely any raindrops will
survive the journey through the very dry air below 10K ft. The
increase in clouds will keep temperatures up a bit tonight with 
mainly upper 30s and lower 40s expected. 

79

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Sunday through Friday/

A sprawling upper level longwave trough will linger over the 
eastern CONUS through Tuesday, with North Texas remaining on the 
western flank of this feature. This pattern will reinforce the 
cool nights and mild, dry days through Tuesday, with readings 
remaining near to somewhat below seasonal norms. A vigorous 
shortwave and accompanying cold front will slide southeastward 
across our area Wednesday afternoon, accompanied by some increase 
in cloudiness but devoid of sufficient moisture/instability to 
trigger any precipitation. 

Any cooling in the wake of this front will be modest and brief, 
as a shortwave ridge promptly develops over the Southern Plains 
by Thursday. This ridging will amplify ahead of a vigorous trough
which quickly moves into NM by Friday, promoting increased 
southerly low level flow and large-scale forcing for ascent across
North Texas by afternoon/evening. Moisture advection and mid- 
level cooling should combine to produce modest amounts of 
instability across most of our area Friday, and have continued 
with a mention of scattered showers and thunderstorms generally 
west of a Bowie to Lampasas line. A few showers may make it to
I-35 by late in the day.

Just beyond this forecast period, it does appear this large scale
trough will slide eastward through the region on Saturday and
Saturday night, so would expect fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm
coverage during the first half of the weekend. Too early at this 
point to define the severe risk, but given the amplified solution 
offered by the GFS (and the time of the year), conditions 
certainly appear unsettled next weekend, and will need to be 
monitored. 

Bradshaw 

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1142 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/
/06 TAFs/

VFR conditions will persist through the respective TAF periods.
Only potential concern will be the possibility of a few isolated
showers around 00-06Z Saturday evening, with the passage of a weak
shortwave trough. While not explicitly shown in TAFs, an overcast
deck may form around FL100 and brief precipitation could reach the
surface in a couple spots. However, given dry air beneath 10K ft
and lack of more robust forcing for ascent, this potential seems
far too low at any one site to include in TAFs at this time.
Aviation impacts would likely be minimal, as well.

Winds will remain light from the north overnight, before veering
to NE/ENE by mid-morning. A return to light northerly flow is
expected Saturday night, as the center of a surface ridge remains
anchored to the north.

Picca

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    60  38  63  40  66 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                60  38  62  39  64 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               58  37  63  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Denton              58  37  62  38  65 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            58  38  62  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              60  40  64  41  67 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             59  38  63  39  66 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           60  40  62  40  65 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Temple              59  39  62  39  64 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       59  36  62  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/66