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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Received: 2019-03-15 19:56 UTC
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859 FXUS64 KFWD 151956 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 256 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019 .SHORT TERM... /Rest of Today and Tonight/ A weak perturbation is currently zipping through the southwest flow aloft, and this is facilitating some increase in mid and high cloud cover and radar echos across parts of the Hill Country and Upper Texas Coast. Point soundings reveal the presence of some mid-level instability with lapse rates in the 600-500 mb layer running around 7-7.5 C/km, and this is corroborated by the area of ACCAS on visible satellite imagery. Interestingly, there have been a few upstream reports of sleet or small hail across parts of the Hill Country. While surface temperatures are running in the mid and upper 50s, the very dry sub-cloud layer is resulting in a wet bulb temperature trace that could potentially support a couple sleet pellets (or small hail given the aformentioned ACCAS and more convective look to the clouds to our south). Think the potential for any measurable precipitation will remain under 10 percent or less, but we'll advertise some sprinkles in the worded forecast across our far southeast into the mid-evening hours. High pressure will continue to nose into the region tonight. As this occurs, winds will subside as the pressure gradient relaxes and the boundary layer decouples. Mostly clear skies and dry low- levels should promote some decent radiational cooling potential across the northwestern 2/3rds of the area, and I've sided with the cooler guidance here as a result. Mid-high cloud cover will probably hold fast through much of the evening across Central Texas, tempering the cooling potential a bit. Carlaw && .LONG TERM... /This Weekend Through Thursday/ A dry split-flow/confluent mid level configuration will set up right over the Southern Plains this weekend, as a piece of energy sets up camp over the Desert Southwest this weekend. At the surface, we'll continue to see a large high pressure ridge dominate an area from the Upper Midwest and westward across the Plains through Monday which will result in partly to mostly sunny conditions with occasional spurts of mid-high clouds racing eastward with associated shortwave energy moving through the fast, confluent flow just to the north across Oklahoma. Dry and cool temperatures just below seasonal normals can be expected with no rain chances expected, as highs gradually warm their way into the lower-middle 60s. The first system taking residence across the Desert Southwest lifts eastward while shearing/weakening, as it enters the confluent flow over the Southern Plains the early half of the week. With surface ridging keeping richer surface moisture at bay well to the south and little in the way of theta-E advection below 850mb, I don't expect anything more than a period of increasing cloudiness and the potential for some virga, or at most, a few sprinkles here and there. A cold front or surface trough arrives on Wednesday, bringing in mainly mP type of air and little in the way of low level cold advection. This may actually assist in a warm up Wednesday into Thursday as low level flow veers. Combined with a residual dry low level airmass across the region, highs should start surpassing the 70 degree threshold across much of the area, especially as mid level ridging across the Southern High Plains amplifies in advance of a more impressive, more vigorous mid level system and energy surging southward toward the Desert Southwest. The upstream, vigorous mid level energy across California/Arizona appears to become cut off and will be slow to move east into the latter half of next week. An omega block pattern developing to the north across the Pacific Northwest will likely hold this system longer than what the GFS is trying to advertise currently. Another culprit is the aforementioned, strongly amplified ridging downstream across the Plains. In a nutshell and as one would expect, there's plenty of model variability on timing and motion with ensembles and their spreads over a week out in time. My intuition tells me slower is better here all things considered and with typical model biases being too progressive with such deep energy across the southern latitudes. As such, I buy off more on the slower Canadian/European solutions versus the more progressive 12z GFS. I suspect my increasing convective chances by Friday night may be too ambitious, as a fairly stout elevated mixed layer will likely form overhead by Thursday and Friday with better storm chances holding off until next weekend. 05/ && .AVIATION... /Issued 1224 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/ /18z TAFs/ VFR with no major aviation concerns through the valid TAF cycle. Breezy and occasionally gusty northerly winds will persist this afternoon, but these will subside quickly this evening as the boundary layer decouples and high pressure builds in overhead. Surface winds will veer more out of the NE on Saturday at speeds generally under 6-8 kts. A passing sprinkle can't be ruled out at Waco as a weak disturbance pivots across the area, but no operational impacts are expected. Carlaw && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 37 58 40 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 35 57 40 61 39 / 5 0 5 0 0 Paris 34 57 37 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 31 57 38 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 32 57 38 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 37 59 42 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 34 58 39 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 37 58 40 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 35 57 40 61 40 / 5 5 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 32 58 37 61 38 / 0 0 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 90/05