National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Received: 2019-03-15 17:24 UTC


352 
FXUS64 KFWD 151724 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1224 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019


.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

VFR with no major aviation concerns through the valid TAF cycle.
Breezy and occasionally gusty northerly winds will persist this
afternoon, but these will subside quickly this evening as the
boundary layer decouples and high pressure builds in overhead.
Surface winds will veer more out of the NE on Saturday at speeds
generally under 6-8 kts. A passing sprinkle can't be ruled out at
Waco as a weak disturbance pivots across the area, but no 
operational impacts are expected. 

Carlaw

&&


.UPDATE... /Issued 959 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/
Main update to the going forecast was to beef up sky cover 
based on morning satellite trends mainly for locales south of I-20.
Reinforcing cooler (and drier) air continues to filter into the 
region on breezy northwest winds and, as a result, high 
temperatures today will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than they 
were on Thursday. A shortwave riding along the southwesterly flow 
aloft should result in the development of mid-high level radar 
echoes this afternoon, but the very dry airmass below 700 mb 
should hold any of this activity to mainly virga. Can't rule out a
couple sprinkles across parts of Central Texas, but chances for 
measurable precipitation will remain under 10 percent. Updated 
products have been transmitted. 

Carlaw

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 258 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/
/Today and Tonight/ 

Elevated moisture associated with a fairly broad upper trough off
the coast of Southern California will keep a stream of mid and 
high clouds from the Rio Grande Valley to the Arklatex and points 
south today. Dry and cool air will remain in place in the low 
levels of the atmosphere as surface high pressure builds southward
from the Central High Plains. This dry air should keep any light 
precipitation that falls from the mid level clouds across Central 
Texas from reaching the ground.

Temperatures today will be a bit cool due to continued cold air
advection, and breezy north winds will make it feel even cooler.
Afternoon highs should still manage to reach the mid and upper
50s. Temperatures tonight will fall rapidly after sunset as the 
boundary layer decouples and wind speeds drop below 10 mph. The 
only thing that will offset the radiational cooling will be some 
lingering high clouds, especially across Central Texas. Lows 
tonight will be some of the coldest we have seen in awhile with 
mainly lower and middle 30s. Some of the western and northern 
zones may briefly reach freezing just before sunrise Saturday. 

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 258 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/
/Saturday through Thursday/

A quiet weather pattern is expected this weekend through much of
the coming week with generally west to southwest flow aloft and a
very slow return of low level moisture. Some weak shortwaves will
translate across the state the first half of the week, but will
produce little more than an increase in clouds. The upper pattern
will become a bit more amplified the second half of the week as
another low pressure system develops across the Desert Southwest,
resulting in ridging across the Central and Southern Plains. Low
level moisture will increase in response to the approaching 
system, yielding warmer temperatures and more clouds. The upper 
low is progged to reach the Four Corners region around Thursday 
before lifting to the Central Plains on Friday or Saturday. There
are timing differences among the GFS and ECMWF, but regardless 
all precipitation associated with this system should occur beyond 
this forecast valid time. 

After a cool start to the weekend with highs Saturday generally
around 60, a gradual warmup will occur through the week. Highs 
should reach the lower 60s Sunday, mid 60s Monday and Tuesday with
upper 60s and lower 70s returning Wednesday and Thursday. Lows 
will be generally in the 40s, with the exception of Sunday and 
Monday mornings when many locations will fall into the middle and 
upper 30s. 

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  37  61  40  63 /   0   0   0   5   0 
Waco                58  36  60  39  62 /   5   0   5  10   0 
Paris               56  34  60  38  64 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Denton              58  34  60  37  63 /   0   0   0   5   0 
McKinney            57  34  59  37  62 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              59  38  62  41  64 /   0   0   0   5   0 
Terrell             58  35  61  39  63 /   0   0   0   5   0 
Corsicana           58  37  60  40  62 /   0   0   0   5   0 
Temple              58  36  59  39  62 /  10   0  10  10   0 
Mineral Wells       58  34  60  37  63 /   0   0   0   5   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

90/05