National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Received: 2019-03-15 07:58 UTC


974 
FXUS64 KFWD 150758
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
258 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019


.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/ 

Elevated moisture associated with a fairly broad upper trough off
the coast of Southern California will keep a stream of mid and 
high clouds from the Rio Grande Valley to the Arklatex and points 
south today. Dry and cool air will remain in place in the low 
levels of the atmosphere as surface high pressure builds southward
from the Central High Plains. This dry air should keep any light 
precipitation that falls from the mid level clouds across Central 
Texas from reaching the ground.

Temperatures today will be a bit cool due to continued cold air
advection, and breezy north winds will make it feel even cooler.
Afternoon highs should still manage to reach the mid and upper
50s. Temperatures tonight will fall rapidly after sunset as the 
boundary layer decouples and wind speeds drop below 10 mph. The 
only thing that will offset the radiational cooling will be some 
lingering high clouds, especially across Central Texas. Lows 
tonight will be some of the coldest we have seen in awhile with 
mainly lower and middle 30s. Some of the western and northern 
zones may briefly reach freezing just before sunrise Saturday. 

79

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Saturday through Thursday/

A quiet weather pattern is expected this weekend through much of
the coming week with generally west to southwest flow aloft and a
very slow return of low level moisture. Some weak shortwaves will
translate across the state the first half of the week, but will
produce little more than an increase in clouds. The upper pattern
will become a bit more amplified the second half of the week as
another low pressure system develops across the Desert Southwest,
resulting in ridging across the Central and Southern Plains. Low
level moisture will increase in response to the approaching 
system, yielding warmer temperatures and more clouds. The upper 
low is progged to reach the Four Corners region around Thursday 
before lifting to the Central Plains on Friday or Saturday. There
are timing differences among the GFS and ECMWF, but regardless 
all precipitation associated with this system should occur beyond 
this forecast valid time. 

After a cool start to the weekend with highs Saturday generally
around 60, a gradual warmup will occur through the week. Highs 
should reach the lower 60s Sunday, mid 60s Monday and Tuesday with
upper 60s and lower 70s returning Wednesday and Thursday. Lows 
will be generally in the 40s, with the exception of Sunday and 
Monday mornings when many locations will fall into the middle and 
upper 30s. 

79

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1133 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019/
/06Z TAFs/

A dry airmass across the lower levels will lead to a continuation
of VFR conditions through the next 24-30 hours across North and 
Central Texas. Northerly winds continue to be on the breezy side, 
with sustained winds anywhere between 12-18 kts. It is possible 
that those wind speeds remain through the rest of the night given
the 25+ knots above 500 feet AGL. 

With a surface ridge situated across West Texas and a weak 
shortwave moving across the Southern Plains on Friday, the surface
pressure gradient will increase in the afternoon, leading to a 
slight increase in the winds along with increasingly gusty 
conditions. Given the northerly wind direction, no major crosswind
concerns are anticipated with the north-south oriented runways. 

The aformentioned shortwave will help draw moisture northward 
through the afternoon, bringing a veil of mid-level clouds mainly
into Central Texas. No impacts are expected given VFR will
continue. 

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    36  56  39  60  42 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Waco                35  55  38  60  39 /   0   5  20   0   0 
Paris               34  55  36  59  39 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Denton              34  55  36  60  39 /   0   0   5   0   0 
McKinney            34  54  36  59  39 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Dallas              36  56  39  60  42 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Terrell             34  56  37  60  39 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Corsicana           35  54  39  58  40 /   0   0  10   0   0 
Temple              36  54  38  59  39 /   0   5  20   0   0 
Mineral Wells       33  54  35  59  39 /   0   0  10   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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