National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Received: 2019-02-12 03:55 UTC


738 
FXUS64 KFWD 120355
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
955 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019


.UPDATE...
/Overnight/

Updated the grids to focus any thunder mention late this evening 
very close to the Red River. Recent trends in satellite/lightning 
data suggest any notable chance for convection should be focused 
very close to the low over Oklahoma. Still, someone could hear a 
quick rumble across our far northern areas late this evening so 
maintained a mention of isolated thunder. Elsewhere, reduced PoPs 
to slight chance towards East Texas as essentially all deep 
precipitation has departed to our east. A lingering light shower 
or two could still develop east of the I-35 corridor, though, 
prior to winds veering more westerly.

Based on satellite and near-term guidance trends, also added some
passing low-level cloud cover along/north of I-20 with the 
passage of the main cold front around 3-6am.

Picca

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 607 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/
/00Z TAFs/

Continued improving flight categories at all TAF sites this
evening, with DFW and Dallas Love recently returning to VFR
levels. Regional radar shows fairly rapid drying across the
Metroplex early this evening, and this trend is expected to
continue. While KACT has briefly fallen to IFR visibility with 
passing rain, it too should rise to VFR by approximately 01Z.

Winds shift to westerly around 05-06Z and then northwesterly 1-2
hours thereafter, following cold frontal passage. A very small
potential exists for a thunderstorm or two across North Texas with
this initial wind shift, but current expectation is for all
deep convection (associated with this boundary) to remain in 
Oklahoma. Northwest winds will be gusty by 08-09Z, and confidence 
was high enough to include gusts to 30 kt during the time of 
initial morning arrivals. Isolated gusts up to 32-33 kt will be 
possible. Additionally, there is a small window for brief MVFR 
CIGs around 09-13Z at Metroplex sites with the frontal passage. 
However, this potential appears too low to include anything more 
than a SCT025 in TAFs.

Winds slowly subside through the mid-day and afternoon hours.
North flow through approximately 13/00Z, before winds back to the
south/southwest by 02-03Z, allowing a return to south flow ops. 

Picca

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 320 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/
/Through Tonight/

A swath of mid-level moisture continues to spread into the
forecast area from the west this afternoon on the southeastern
periphery of a potent upper trough. This cloud deck is about 8 kft
AGL with increasing dry air in the sub-cloud layer. So despite a
fairly active radar presentation thus far this afternoon, a lot 
of this activity has been virga. The more robust showers have 
been relatively light, resulting mostly in traces, with only a 
few locations managing to pick up around .05 to .10" per hour. 
This activity will continue to spread east over the next several 
hours, making for an occasionally damp evening commute. As this 
wave of ascent exits to the east this evening, rainfall will taper
off from west to east as wind fields continue to veer to the 
west. 

Around sunset or shortly after, there is some potential for
additional isolated showers or perhaps a thunderstorm to develop
behind the main wave of rainfall. This will be due to the main 
energy associated with the upper low pivoting eastward through 
southern Oklahoma. A pocket of elevated instability will accompany
this mid-level energy eastward through northern Texas with 
MUCAPEs around 500 J/kg. If lift is strong enough across North 
Texas, isolated showers and a couple thunderstorms would be able 
to develop near or north of I-20 during this time period. Will 
maintain some low PoPs in these locations through midnight to 
account for this low possibility. The RAP/HRRR have been the most 
aggressive among high-res guidance with this scenario, but have 
begun to back off in the latest 19z run. 

Later tonight, this sytem's cold front will sweep through the 
forecast area, preceded briefly by a Pacific front. Winds will 
turn northwesterly at 20-30 mph with some higher gusts late 
tonight, persisting through daybreak Tuesday. The cold front will 
deliver a surge of cooler and substantially drier air, sending 
Tuesday morning's low into the 30s and low 40s with dewpoints 
several degrees lower. Skies will clear quickly from west to east 
as moisture becomes scoured from the area. 

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 320 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/
/Tuesday through Next Weekend/

Breezy and cool conditions are anticipated to start the forecast
period with a warming trend likely through the end of the week.
The end of the work week will feature much cooler conditions with
temperatures falling below normal values. At this time, little to
no precipitation is expected. Even colder conditions are expected
next weekend and this is where our next chance for precipitation
occurs.

Tuesday and Wednesday---Breezy north-northwest winds are expected
in the wake of a cold front early on Tuesday. Surface pressures 
rises will near 2mb/hr which should equate to 15 to 20 MPH winds 
with gusts to near 35 MPH. At this time, sustained winds should 
remain shy of wind advisory criteria and at this time, we have no 
plans to hoist an advisory. Winds should subside through the day.
Despite the passage of the cold front, mostly sunny skies should 
allow temperatures to climb to near seasonal values with readings 
in the mid to upper 50s areawide. With winds subsiding Tuesday 
night into Wednesday, very dry air at the surface and clear skies,
decent radiational cooling is anticipated. I've lowered 
temperatures by a few degrees from the previous forecast with most
locations falling into at least the mid 30s. Some of the 
sheltered/low-lying spots could fall into the mid 20s by Tuesday
morning.

Wednesday should be noticeably warmer as southerly breezes 
increase rather quickly in response to broad lee-side roughing. 
With low level moisture likely being scoured out rather 
efficiently by previous FROPAs, I don't expect much in the way of 
cloud cover. The slight westerly component to the winds should 
mean that temperatures climb well above normal with readings in 
the upper 60s to near 70 degrees west of US HWY 281.
 
Thursday and Friday---Thursday should feature the warmest day in
the outlook period as strong southwesterly winds overspread the 
area. High temperatures should easily climb into the 70s for most 
locales with the warmest conditions across the Big Country where 
downsloping may be the greatest. GFS forecast profiles across East
Texas suggest that perhaps enough moisture will lift northward 
for a thin layer of stratus. This stratus deck may persist into 
the afternoon and could hold temperatures in check for parts of 
East Texas. Farther west, there could be an elevated fire weather 
threat west of I-35 on Thursday afternoon where min humidity 
values will be low and sustained wind speeds may approach 25 mph.

Changes in terms of temperatures are expected on Friday as a 
strong cold front is forecast to plow southward through much of 
North and Central Texas. At this time, it appears that the front 
will clear most of the area by midday Friday and with strong winds
at 925mb, very breezy conditions are probable. While low level 
moisture may have returned northward, it appears unlikely that 
it'll be in sufficient quantity for any type of precipitation and 
I've left the forecast rain-free.

Next Weekend---The weekend will be cooler as strong CAA
overspreads much of the area. Temperatures will be below normal
though a majority of the weekend looks dry. The rain-free forecast 
may change as 700mb WAA commences atop the colder near-surface 
airmass late Sunday. The degree of this is somewhat unknown as 
model guidance offers varying solutions. What appears most 
probable is that precipitation chances increase late Sunday and 
into next Monday as an upper low tracks eastward out of West 
Texas. Depending on the degree of cold air in place, there will be
at least a risk for a rain/snow mix along the Red River and 
across the Big Country. 

Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    41  58  33  67  51 /  20   5   5   5   5 
Waco                42  58  28  67  50 /  20   5   5   5   5 
Paris               40  55  33  65  47 /  50   5   5   5   5 
Denton              39  56  27  67  51 /  20   5   5   5   5 
McKinney            40  56  28  67  50 /  30   5   5   5   5 
Dallas              41  58  36  69  52 /  30   5   5   5   5 
Terrell             41  56  31  66  50 /  40   5   5   5   5 
Corsicana           42  57  38  67  50 /  30   5   5   5   5 
Temple              41  59  34  65  50 /  10   5   5   5   5 
Mineral Wells       36  58  28  70  50 /  10   5   5   5   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

11/30