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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Received: 2018-11-09 05:23 UTC

FXUS64 KFWD 090523 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1123 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018

/06z TAFs/

The next cold front has pushed through the Metroplex TAF sites and
will be arriving at Waco shortly with breezy north winds. The
strongest warm advection is beginning to shift south and east of 
the Metroplex, and precipitation chances will be over with by 
around 07z. Rain chances will persist for a little while longer at
Waco, and we'll show a VCSH through 10z. 

Based on upstream observations, cloud bases are pretty uniformly
low-MVFR, so while some temporary fluctuations between MVFR and
VFR are presently occurring across the Metroplex with the frontal
passage, we'll prevail BKN015 cigs through the rest of the night.
The blanket of low stratus will finally erode during the mid-late
morning hours on Friday, and VFR conditions are expected to return
around 17Z in the Metroplex and an hour or two later at Waco.
Breezy northerly winds around 15-20 kts with occasional gusts to
25 kts will persist on Friday, but speeds will decrease Friday 
evening. Advection of drier air from the north and slightly 
elevated overnight winds will greatly limit the potential for fog 
development on Saturday morning. 



.UPDATE... /Issued 849 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018/
The inherited forecast is in pretty good shape, but made some
adjustments to the near-term PoPs based on radar and observational

Water vapor satellite loops and upper-air observations depict a
fairly vigorous shortwave trough digging into Oklahoma this
evening, although its orientation is such that the core of the
large scale height falls will remain north of the Red River.
However, strong isentropic ascent/warm advection induced by 30-40
kt southwesterly flow atop the expansive post-frontal airmass will
result in continued shower/isolated thunderstorm develop this
evening. The strongest warm advection is currently focused along
and south of I-20/30, and I've nudged PoPs upwards into the 70-90
percent range into the Metroplex to account for this northward-
building activity. Still anticipate additional showers and storms
will fill in across Central Texas through the overnight hours, but
the timing has been delayed just a bit. 

Can't rule out some embedded claps of thunder across the Metro for
the next few hours, but instability will be waning here shortly as
drier air quickly rushes south of the Red River with the next
reinforcing cold front. This invasion of drier air should
effectively end precip chances from northwest to southeast around
or shortly after midnight across the Metroplex, but precip chances
will continue through late tonight/early Friday morning across 
Central Texas. Can't rule out some small hail (dimes to nickels) 
in any of the over-achieving elevated cores south of a 
Goldthwaite to Hillsboro to Athens line this evening. Updated 
products have been sent. 



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 322 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018/
/Through Tonight/

Fast zonal flow will remain in place across the Southern Plains
through tonight despite a strong upper trough digging through the
Upper Midwest. This system will ultimately send a stronger cold
front through the region this evening. Winds have gradually backed
to a more northerly direction with colder air expected to filter
southward tonight. Prior to the arrival of colder and drier air, 
ample moisture and instability is in place through and above the 
frontal layer. This will continue to result in scattered showers 
and a few thunderstorms through the mid/late evening hours. 
Coverage of showers will likely increase this evening as large 
scale forcing for ascent increases around the base of the upper
trough to the north. Strong isentropic ascent between 900-700 mb
where an ample supply of moisture will be located, should result
in numerous showers developing and persisting through late
evening. The strongest convection will be able to produce some
small hail and frequent lightning given around 500 J/kg of
elevated instability, but the overall severe threat is low.  All 
of this activity should end from north to south tonight as drier 
air filters into the region. Despite an end to the precipitation,
overcast skies will continue into early Friday morning with
temperatures dropping into the upper 30s and lower 40s north of
I-20 and mid to upper 40s across the southern half of the region.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 322 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018/
/Friday through Thursday/  

Dry and cool air will filter into North and Central Texas on
Friday behind another cold front. A few showers may linger near
the cold front across the southern zones, especially during the
morning hours. Otherwise it will remain cool and breezy Friday 
with highs in the lower and middle 50s. Low clouds will clear
through the day but some high clouds will remain through Friday
night. We anticipate that temperatures will cool rapidly after
sunset as wind speeds decrease. Lows should cool into the 30s
across all but the far south by Saturday morning with some
freezing temperatures likely north of the I-20 corridor. We will
leave the freeze watch in place for now and also the mention of 
patchy frost. We will keep Tarrant and Dallas counties out of the
Freeze Watch for now, however, a few outlying areas may still 
briefly reach 32 degrees. 

After a cool start to the morning Saturday, temperatures will 
steadily warm as surface winds turn back to the south/southeast in
response to a developing surface trough across the Central High 
Plains. Highs on Saturday will warm into the lower 50s in most 
locations. A few showers (isolated thunderstorms) will be 
possible across the southern zones Saturday and Saturday night as 
moisture slowly increases. 

Rain chances will increase Sunday afternoon/Sunday night as an
upper trough moves southeast out of the Central Rockies and
another cold front crosses the Red River. This system will bring 
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms to much of the region
with the best rain chances on Monday. There are some indications
in the models that a brief rain/snow mix will be possible across 
the northwest zones on Monday, but this solution is not supported 
by all the models and the more likely scenario is that the deep 
cold air will lag behind the precipitation. Even if there was a 
brief rain/snow mix across the northwest zones, surface 
temperatures would likely be above freezing (mid to upper 30s) 
with no impacts. 

The upper trough axis will move east of the region Monday night
with dry and cold air moving in behind it. Tuesday morning will 
likely be the coldest morning thus far this season with many areas
seeing their first freeze. Temperatures Tuesday will also be cool
with highs generally in the 40s and lower 50s.

A slow warming trend is expected the remainder of next week with 
the return of light southerly surface winds and weakening 
northwest flow aloft. Temperatures should still remain below
normal Wednesday through Friday with no precipitation expected. 



Dallas-Ft. Worth    45  53  36  51  42 /  80   0   0   5   5 
Waco                46  55  37  51  43 /  70  10   0  20  20 
Paris               44  53  30  49  38 /  50   5   0   5  10 
Denton              42  52  32  50  40 /  50   0   0   5   0 
McKinney            43  52  32  50  40 /  60   0   0   5   5 
Dallas              45  54  36  51  43 /  80   0   0   5   5 
Terrell             45  54  34  51  42 /  90   5   0   5   5 
Corsicana           46  54  37  51  42 / 100  10   0  10  20 
Temple              46  54  40  50  42 /  80  20   0  20  20 
Mineral Wells       43  53  32  51  40 /  50   0   0   5   0 


Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for