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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Received: 2018-11-09 02:49 UTC
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907 FXUS64 KFWD 090249 AAB AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 849 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018 .UPDATE... The inherited forecast is in pretty good shape, but made some adjustments to the near-term PoPs based on radar and observational trends. Water vapor satellite loops and upper-air observations depict a fairly vigorous shortwave trough digging into Oklahoma this evening, although its orientation is such that the core of the large scale height falls will remain north of the Red River. However, strong isentropic ascent/warm advection induced by 30-40 kt southwesterly flow atop the expansive post-frontal airmass will result in continued shower/isolated thunderstorm develop this evening. The strongest warm advection is currently focused along and south of I-20/30, and I've nudged PoPs upwards into the 70-90 percent range into the Metroplex to account for this northward- building activity. Still anticipate additional showers and storms will fill in across Central Texas through the overnight hours, but the timing has been delayed just a bit. Can't rule out some embedded claps of thunder across the Metro for the next few hours, but instability will be waning here shortly as drier air quickly rushes south of the Red River with the next reinforcing cold front. This invasion of drier air should effectively end precip chances from northwest to southeast around or shortly after midnight across the Metroplex, but precip chances will continue through late tonight/early Friday morning across Central Texas. Can't rule out some small hail (dimes to nickels) in any of the over-achieving elevated cores south of a Goldthwaite to Hillsboro to Athens line this evening. Updated products have been sent. Carlaw && .AVIATION... /Issued 553 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018/ /00z TAFs/ Warm advection will continue to increase this evening in response to a digging shortwave currently dropping into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Instability across the Metroplex appears a bit too meager to warrant a VCTS, but we'll keep an eye on radar trends over the next few hours. The better thunder chances will be at Waco, but even these should be fairly short-lived as elevated instability will be decreasing after 02-03z. Precipitation chances should come to an end just after midnight in the Metroplex and a few hours later at Waco. The next cold front is currently dropping south of the Red River and will move across the Metroplex TAF sites around midnight. North winds will become breezy behind this feature, occasionally gusting to 25 kts or so, and cloud bases will gradually rise as drier low-level air filters into the region. VFR conditions should return by late Friday morning. Similar trends are expected at Waco, but delayed by a few hours compared to the Metroplex sites. Carlaw && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 322 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018/ /Through Tonight/ Fast zonal flow will remain in place across the Southern Plains through tonight despite a strong upper trough digging through the Upper Midwest. This system will ultimately send a stronger cold front through the region this evening. Winds have gradually backed to a more northerly direction with colder air expected to filter southward tonight. Prior to the arrival of colder and drier air, ample moisture and instability is in place through and above the frontal layer. This will continue to result in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through the mid/late evening hours. Coverage of showers will likely increase this evening as large scale forcing for ascent increases around the base of the upper trough to the north. Strong isentropic ascent between 900-700 mb where an ample supply of moisture will be located, should result in numerous showers developing and persisting through late evening. The strongest convection will be able to produce some small hail and frequent lightning given around 500 J/kg of elevated instability, but the overall severe threat is low. All of this activity should end from north to south tonight as drier air filters into the region. Despite an end to the precipitation, overcast skies will continue into early Friday morning with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s and lower 40s north of I-20 and mid to upper 40s across the southern half of the region. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 322 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018/ /Friday through Thursday/ Dry and cool air will filter into North and Central Texas on Friday behind another cold front. A few showers may linger near the cold front across the southern zones, especially during the morning hours. Otherwise it will remain cool and breezy Friday with highs in the lower and middle 50s. Low clouds will clear through the day but some high clouds will remain through Friday night. We anticipate that temperatures will cool rapidly after sunset as wind speeds decrease. Lows should cool into the 30s across all but the far south by Saturday morning with some freezing temperatures likely north of the I-20 corridor. We will leave the freeze watch in place for now and also the mention of patchy frost. We will keep Tarrant and Dallas counties out of the Freeze Watch for now, however, a few outlying areas may still briefly reach 32 degrees. After a cool start to the morning Saturday, temperatures will steadily warm as surface winds turn back to the south/southeast in response to a developing surface trough across the Central High Plains. Highs on Saturday will warm into the lower 50s in most locations. A few showers (isolated thunderstorms) will be possible across the southern zones Saturday and Saturday night as moisture slowly increases. Rain chances will increase Sunday afternoon/Sunday night as an upper trough moves southeast out of the Central Rockies and another cold front crosses the Red River. This system will bring numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms to much of the region with the best rain chances on Monday. There are some indications in the models that a brief rain/snow mix will be possible across the northwest zones on Monday, but this solution is not supported by all the models and the more likely scenario is that the deep cold air will lag behind the precipitation. Even if there was a brief rain/snow mix across the northwest zones, surface temperatures would likely be above freezing (mid to upper 30s) with no impacts. The upper trough axis will move east of the region Monday night with dry and cold air moving in behind it. Tuesday morning will likely be the coldest morning thus far this season with many areas seeing their first freeze. Temperatures Tuesday will also be cool with highs generally in the 40s and lower 50s. A slow warming trend is expected the remainder of next week with the return of light southerly surface winds and weakening northwest flow aloft. Temperatures should still remain below normal Wednesday through Friday with no precipitation expected. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 45 53 36 51 42 / 80 0 0 5 5 Waco 46 55 37 51 43 / 70 10 0 20 20 Paris 44 53 30 49 38 / 50 5 0 5 10 Denton 42 52 32 50 40 / 50 0 0 5 0 McKinney 43 52 32 50 40 / 60 0 0 5 5 Dallas 45 54 36 51 43 / 80 0 0 5 5 Terrell 45 54 34 51 42 / 90 5 0 5 5 Corsicana 46 54 37 51 42 / 100 10 0 10 20 Temple 46 54 40 50 42 / 80 20 0 20 20 Mineral Wells 43 53 32 51 40 / 50 0 0 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for TXZ091>095-100>106-116-117. && $$ 90/24