National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFGF Received: 2022-02-10 20:25 UTC


562 
FXUS63 KFGF 102025
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
225 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 225 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022

Much of our forecast area will be in the warm sector this 
afternoon into the overnight hours, along with temperatures above 
freezing and windy conditions.

The main challenge and focus then turns to the strong cold front
later this evening and overnight, and have issued a blizzard
warning within the valley with winter weather advisories on either
side. Strong CAA along with 925mb winds 40-45 knots will lead to
north winds 30-40mph gusts up to 55mph. This is a classic arctic 
front blizzard set up. The main issue is that the warm 
temperatures ahead of the cold front will make the current 
snowpack nearly unblowable. With that said, water vapor imagery 
indicates an upper level wave (currently way upstream) that 
should lead to an area of very light falling snow behind the cold 
front, and combined with the strong winds would lead to a 3-5 hour
period of blizzard conditions. Most guidance does indicate very 
light QPF. Typically, in these CAA regimes we tend to develop 
additional convective snow showers, which would prolong the 
blizzard type impacts. However, the development and intensity of 
these convective snow showers is uncertain. If the snow showers 
persist, blizzard conditions would last into Friday afternoon. 
With all of that said, headlines are ending at 9am as this is the 
timeframe we are most confident in blizzard impacts. As the event 
unfolds and we gain more confidence, the end time of the blizzard 
warning may need to be extended. The other impact we are messaging
is that with temperatures above freezing and then a sharp drop to
below freezing temperatures, icy conditions may quickly develop. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) 
Issued at 225 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022

Temperatures start off on the cold side in the wake of an arctic 
cold front. The surface high pressure slides southeast fairly 
rapidly ahead of another clipper for Sunday and return flow will 
help moderate temperatures ahead of the system.

Temperatures cool a bit behind the clipper as it traverses the area 
but will not be as cold as the start of the period. The upper ridge 
begins to rebound again to start the week, and will see a gradual 
warm up continue through the week to near normal values. Otherwise, 
little precipitation is forecast through the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 130 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022

IFR/MVFR conditions will continue across a portion of NW and WC MN
into this evening, along with gusty winds across the entire
region. A strong cold front will bring additional gusty winds to
the region, up to 55 mph in some places, along with significantly
reduced visibilities in falling/blowing snow. LIFR/IFR to MVFR
conditions expected most sites by Friday morning. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday 
     for NDZ038-049-052.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for NDZ006-007-014-015-
     024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

     Blizzard Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday for 
     NDZ007-008-016-027-029-030-054.

     Blizzard Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for 
     NDZ039-053.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST 
     Friday for NDZ006-014-015-024-026-028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday 
     for MNZ027-030-031-040.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ027-
     030-031.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for MNZ005-006-008-
     009-013>017-022>024-028-032.

     Blizzard Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday for 
     MNZ001-002-004-007.

     Blizzard Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for 
     MNZ003-029.

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Hopkins