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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFGF Received: 2022-02-10 20:25 UTC
562 FXUS63 KFGF 102025 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 225 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 225 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 Much of our forecast area will be in the warm sector this afternoon into the overnight hours, along with temperatures above freezing and windy conditions. The main challenge and focus then turns to the strong cold front later this evening and overnight, and have issued a blizzard warning within the valley with winter weather advisories on either side. Strong CAA along with 925mb winds 40-45 knots will lead to north winds 30-40mph gusts up to 55mph. This is a classic arctic front blizzard set up. The main issue is that the warm temperatures ahead of the cold front will make the current snowpack nearly unblowable. With that said, water vapor imagery indicates an upper level wave (currently way upstream) that should lead to an area of very light falling snow behind the cold front, and combined with the strong winds would lead to a 3-5 hour period of blizzard conditions. Most guidance does indicate very light QPF. Typically, in these CAA regimes we tend to develop additional convective snow showers, which would prolong the blizzard type impacts. However, the development and intensity of these convective snow showers is uncertain. If the snow showers persist, blizzard conditions would last into Friday afternoon. With all of that said, headlines are ending at 9am as this is the timeframe we are most confident in blizzard impacts. As the event unfolds and we gain more confidence, the end time of the blizzard warning may need to be extended. The other impact we are messaging is that with temperatures above freezing and then a sharp drop to below freezing temperatures, icy conditions may quickly develop. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 225 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 Temperatures start off on the cold side in the wake of an arctic cold front. The surface high pressure slides southeast fairly rapidly ahead of another clipper for Sunday and return flow will help moderate temperatures ahead of the system. Temperatures cool a bit behind the clipper as it traverses the area but will not be as cold as the start of the period. The upper ridge begins to rebound again to start the week, and will see a gradual warm up continue through the week to near normal values. Otherwise, little precipitation is forecast through the rest of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 130 PM CST Thu Feb 10 2022 IFR/MVFR conditions will continue across a portion of NW and WC MN into this evening, along with gusty winds across the entire region. A strong cold front will bring additional gusty winds to the region, up to 55 mph in some places, along with significantly reduced visibilities in falling/blowing snow. LIFR/IFR to MVFR conditions expected most sites by Friday morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for NDZ038-049-052. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for NDZ006-007-014-015- 024-026-028-038-049-052-054. Blizzard Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday for NDZ007-008-016-027-029-030-054. Blizzard Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for NDZ039-053. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday for NDZ006-014-015-024-026-028. MN...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for MNZ027-030-031-040. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ027- 030-031. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for MNZ005-006-008- 009-013>017-022>024-028-032. Blizzard Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday for MNZ001-002-004-007. Blizzard Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for MNZ003-029. $$ SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...Hopkins AVIATION...Hopkins