National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2019-02-12 01:08 UTC


230 
FXUS64 KEWX 120108
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
708 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.UPDATE... /EXTENDED POPS & ADDED FOG/
Updated to continue rain chances through midnight for much of the
area and shift chances to east of I-35 after midnight per radar and
rapid refresh solutions. Surface analysis would suggest that the
decoupling ahead of the front and the amount of residual moisture
should lead to a return of patchy fog tonight. Would not expect to
see the fog get particularly dense as the westerly shifting of winds
behind the rain area should provide some mixing before the frontal 
wind shift clears out the moisture late tonight. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

AVIATION...
Ceilings at all sites are now MVFR but some areas of IFR continue
across the Hill Country. An area of light rain continues between Del
Rio and the I35 corridor. This rainfall will continue to slowly shift
east and the I35 sites should see some light rain with very low
accumulations. After 5z, VFR and rainfree conditions are expected to
prevail as drier air moves into the area behind a cold front. VFR 
should then prevail for the remainder of the period. North winds 
tomorrow will be breezy with speeds in the 12-22 knot range. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Low stratus and patchy fog continues to linger across portions of 
the Edwards Plateau this afternoon. Surface analysis shows 2 PM 
temperatures range from the upper 40s across the plateau to the 70s 
in the Coastal Plains. As a shortwave trough dives out of 
Colorado/New Mexico later this evening, a deepening Texas Panhandle 
surface low will quickly eject across the Southern Plains and drag an
attendant Pacific cold front across the region. A weak surface 
pressure gradient and persistent shallow inversion will allow for 
additional fog and patchy drizzle or light right to redevelop across 
South Central Texas ahead of the cold front this evening. Some 
locally dense fog may be possible, but is expected to be short-lived 
as increasing and veering winds ahead of the cold front begin to lift
the fog by midnight. Rain will also shift east out of the region 
overnight as these low level winds begin to veer.

12Z and preliminary inspection of 18Z model guidance remained fairly
consistent on the cold front reaching the Hill Country by midnight, 
the Interstate 35 corridor by 3 AM, and clearing the region by 
sunrise. Northwest to north winds are expected to increase into the 
10-15 MPH range behind the front Tuesday morning. Low level wind 
profiles behind the front show very strong winds just off the surface
(925 MB winds in the 35-40 knot range) and any kind of mixing may 
mean wind gusts in the 20-30 MPH range are possible as the post 
frontal layer deepens Tuesday morning. Surface ridging quickly 
building into South Central Texas behind the front will allow for 
winds to quickly decrease Wednesday afternoon, but a brief window for
elevated fire weather conditions may exist along the Rio Grande as 
much drier air filters into the region behind the front. Clearing 
skies as this drier air filters into the region will allow for 
temperatures near to slightly warmer than what has been observed the 
past few days. If you've enjoyed living in the Seattle of the South 
over the past few days, soak up these last few hours because the sun 
will come out tomorrow. Dry and clear conditions will continue into 
Tuesday night as surface ridging begins to slide east with excellent 
conditions for radiational cooling allowing for temperatures to fall 
into the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Quasizonal flow aloft and the return of southerly low level flow 
with the surface ridges departure will allow for warmer but dry 
weather to settle in across the region Wednesday and Thursday. Highs 
in the 60s on Wednesday are expected to warm into the 70s on 
Thursday. An approaching upper disturbance Thursday and Thursday 
night will result in another round of surface cyclogenesis over the 
High Plains, dragging another cold front across the region on Friday.
With limited moisture return ahead of this second front, have kept 
the forecast dry with another window for elevated fire weather 
conditions possible along the Rio Grande behind the front on Friday. 
Dry conditions are expected to persist Saturday into Sunday, but the 
approach of another frontal system by Monday will result in low rain 
chances returning to the forecast at the beginning of next week. 
Medium range guidance has trended considerably colder with this next 
frontal system and will have to keep an eye on these temperatures and
any potential impacts on precipitation type/winter weather potential
for Monday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              45  64  38  65  51 /  30   0   0   0   0 
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  46  63  33  65  51 /  30   0   0   0   0 
New Braunfels Muni Airport     45  65  34  65  50 /  40   0   0   0   0 
Burnet Muni Airport            43  62  34  63  49 /  20   0   0   0   0 
Del Rio Intl Airport           44  68  38  68  48 /  10   0   0   0   0 
Georgetown Muni Airport        43  62  33  64  51 /  20   0   0   0   0 
Hondo Muni Airport             43  67  34  67  49 /  20   0   0   0   0 
San Marcos Muni Airport        46  64  35  65  50 /  40   0   0   0   0 
La Grange - Fayette Regional   50  64  36  65  51 /  40   0   0   0   0 
San Antonio Intl Airport       47  66  36  66  51 /  30   0   0   0   0 
Stinson Muni Airport           47  67  36  66  51 /  30   0   0   0   0 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Hampshire
Short-Term/Long-Term...Oaks