National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2019-01-13 04:44 UTC

FXUS64 KEWX 130444

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1044 PM CST Sat Jan 12 2019

No significant changes from the previous TAFs. High pressure is 
settling over the region and flying conditions will be VFR at all 
area airports through the entire forecast period. Winds will be 
out of the north at less than 10 kts overnight. We expect winds to 
become around 10 kts late morning Sunday. A mid-level ceiling will 
develop during the late morning in San Antonio and spread northward 
to Austin by late evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST Sat Jan 12 2019/ 

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
Cooler air is filtering in behind the cold front that moved through
last night. Highs today have only reached the mid 50s across the Hill
Country under mostly sunny skies. With winds tonight becoming light
under mostly clear skies overnight lows will drop into the 30s across
most of South Central Texas. A light freeze will be possible across
the Edwards Plateau and through parts of the Hill Country. Zonal flow
aloft will establish itself Sunday as the trough that brought the 
cold front through last night exits eastward. With northerly flow and
high pressure at the surface Sunday will be another cool mostly 
sunny day with highs in the low to mid 50s. Sunday night will be cold
once more with overnight lows dropping again into the 30s for most 
of the area and near 40 along the Coastal Plains. Another light 
freeze will be possible in parts of the Edwards Plateau and Hill 
Country by Monday morning. These cool highs are running about 5-10 
degrees below normal for the mid part of January with overnight lows 
around where they should be for this time of year. 

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
500mb flow will remain zonal into Monday leaning to more cool weather
for Monday. An increase in low level moisture will bring the return
of cloud cover though for the day on Monday with surface winds
becoming light and more easterly. The first of two weather systems
that will impact the area approaches Monday night into Tuesday. A
weak disturbance aloft and surface low will push across South Texas
during the day on Tuesday. The best chances of rain will be along the
Coastal Plains and further south towards Corpus Christi and
Brownsville. A few showers could reach as far north as Austin, but
chances remain low. The low shifts off to the east over the Gulf of
Mexico, but the weakness in the ridge remains (possibly as a weak
Coastal Low) and an overrunning patter sets up across the eastern
half of the area for Wednesday and Thursday. Slight rain chances
remain for these two days east of the I-35 corridor while light
southerly flow develops on the backside of the surface low allowing
for temperatures to being to warm into the 60s, and 70s by Thursday. 
This is all ahead of a polar trough that plunges south across the
western U.S. Thursday into Friday. While models continue to keep the
main trough across north Texas and the Red River Valley it will drag
a front across South Central Texas increasing rain chances for Friday
night into Saturday. Rain ahead of the front will bring the best
chance of rain to areas east of I-35 for the entire week. Models 
which were about 12 hours off (mainly the ECMWF being slow than the 
GFS/Canadian) have come into better agreement with the 12z runs. The 
best chances of rain will be Friday night, primarily along and east 
of the I-35 corridor with the front arrive by Saturday morning. The 
big story will this front will be the polar airmass behind it with 
highs on Saturday only reaching into the lower 50s for most, and 
overnight lows Saturday night into Sunday dropping down into the 
upper 20s and lower 30s across South Central Texas. 


Austin Camp Mabry              37  52  37  53  39 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  36  52  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0   0 
New Braunfels Muni Airport     37  54  38  54  40 /   0   0   0   0  -  
Burnet Muni Airport            33  50  35  52  36 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Del Rio Intl Airport           38  57  40  57  42 /   0   0   0   0  -  
Georgetown Muni Airport        34  51  36  52  36 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Hondo Muni Airport             37  57  39  58  42 /   0   0   0   0  10 
San Marcos Muni Airport        36  53  38  54  39 /   0   0   0   0   0 
La Grange - Fayette Regional   37  53  38  54  40 /   0   0   0  -    0 
San Antonio Intl Airport       38  55  39  55  42 /   0   0   0   0  -  
Stinson Muni Airport           39  55  40  56  43 /   0   0   0   0  10