National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEWX Received: 2019-02-18 11:47 UTC

FXUS64 KEWX 181147 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
547 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

/12z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected across all area terminals through late
tonight. High clouds will be present all day long as upper level
moisture pushes into our area from the northern part of Mexico. Cigs
and vsbys are expected to lower into the MVFR category by 09z
Tuesday along the I-35 airports. Added a Prob30 line to the I-35 
sites showing the potential of lower end MVFR near day break with 
this package. Also, mentioned drizzle from day break to midday
Tuesday as an upper level disturbance moves across the area in 
combination with a surge of elevated moisture across the region.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019/ 

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
An abundance of mid and high level clouds continues to stream across
the area within a strong jet axis across the southern CONUS.
Temperatures are currently in the 40s across much of the area with
moderate northeast winds continuing. For today, dry weather is
expected to continue with a large amount of dry air underneath the
moistening mid-levels. With the continued cloud cover, high
temperatures today will top out in the 50s in the north to the middle
60s in the south and west. 

A deep trough axis is currently located in the the southwest CONUS
which is oddly enough bringing snow to Las Vegas at the present time.
This trough axis will slowly translate to the east today and tonight
and the low-levels of the atmosphere will begin to moisten mainly
after 6z. Therefore, will keep a dry forecast through 6z and will
begin to show some PoPs mainly in the southeast CWA for the remainder
of the night. This activity should remain light in intensity with 
average rainfall amounts remaining less than a tenth of an inch.

For tomorrow, rain chances will increase further as a coastal low
develops. This feature should increase low-level lift across our
eastern counties tomorrow morning and will show PoPs ranging from the
20 percent near the Rio Grande to 80 percent across the northern
counties. This activity should begin to shift to the east in the
afternoon as the surface trough moves east. Rainfall accumulations
during the day tomorrow will average less than a quarter of an inch.
The continued cloud cover and areas of light rain should keep
temperatures cool and opted to side with the cooler members of
guidance and will show highs tomorrow ranging from the 40s where rain
chances remain highest to the lower 60s near the Rio Grande. 

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Rain chances will decrease Tuesday night as a weak cold front moves
through the area. Some of the high-res guidance and ECMWF are 
showing some possible light rain or drizzle along the front.
Wednesday will be the only other dry day in the work week besides
today as slightly drier air filters into the area. West winds will
help temperatures warm with highs in the 60s across the CWA. Rain
chances return to the forecast late Wednesday night and Thursday as a
weak upper level disturbance moves near the region and another
coastal low develops. Rain chances will continue through Saturday
afternoon as southwest flow aloft promotes weak ascent within low-
level warm air advection. A dry west wind is expected by Saturday
afternoon which is expected to finally clear things out. Sunday
should also remain dry. Highs Thursday will be int he 50s and 60s
with the clouds and rain, but will warm into the 70s on Saturday with
the west winds back in the area. Highs Sunday will be slightly


Austin Camp Mabry              58  42  48  41  64 /   0  30  70  20  10 
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  58  42  47  41  63 /   0  40  70  20  10 
New Braunfels Muni Airport     61  43  50  41  65 /   0  30  60  20  10 
Burnet Muni Airport            53  39  44  37  62 /   0  20  70  20  -  
Del Rio Intl Airport           65  47  62  43  66 /   0  10  20  10   0 
Georgetown Muni Airport        54  40  45  39  62 /   0  30  80  20  10 
Hondo Muni Airport             62  45  54  41  67 /   0  20  40  20  -  
San Marcos Muni Airport        60  42  49  41  65 /   0  40  60  20  10 
La Grange - Fayette Regional   60  45  50  43  62 /   0  40  70  30  10 
San Antonio Intl Airport       62  44  51  43  67 /   0  20  50  20  -  
Stinson Muni Airport           63  45  53  44  67 /   0  20  50  20  -