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690
FXUS64 KEPZ 042158
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
258 PM MST Fri Mar 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Winds diminish overnight most locations, however, breezy to windy
conditions return for the weekend. Sunday will be the windier of
the two days, with the potential for patchy dust, especially for
Hudspeth county. Cooler conditions take hold into the earlier
portions of next week, with the potential for scattered area
mountain snow showers later on Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Very dry air is moving into the region thanks to strong
southwesterly winds this afternoon. The storm system that's
bringing not only this airmass, but the strong wind and blowing
dust, in is currently located over southern Nevada. Dewpoints over
the region this morning were in the 30s. Already, there are
pockets of single digit dewpoints (for example Dona Ana County
Airport) and teens (El Paso International Airport); all areas will
fall into or below the teens this afternoon. The wind has been
behaving as forecasted thus far, with the strongest southwest
winds at 25 to 35 mph, with gusts up to 50 mph. Dust has been the
wildcard going into today. Areas south of the International Border
to Luna, N. Dona Ana, and E Sierra counties received from a T to
0.08" or so or rain last night. Looking at split window Goes
satellite imagery... streamers of blowing dust are moving in from
the Chihuahuan dust sources, so that small amount of precip isn't
doing much for dust inhibition.
Going into tonight, wind shifts westerly. There will still be a
stout 40+/- knot jet overhead. While the atmosphere will slowly
decouple aiding to keep the high wind speeds aloft in most
locations, mountain wave turbulance will aid in continued wind gusts
along east-slope locations. The aforementioned wind shift signifies
a cooler airmass moving in overnight, therefore low temperatures
across the area will be roughly ~10 degrees below this morning's
lows.
Saturday will be a transition day between weather systems as one
system departs into the central Plains and another approaches
southern Nevada. Winds are not expected to be as strong with WSW
winds in the 15 to 25 mph range in the afternoon. I left blowing
dust in the forecast as the surface dust concentration on the Air
Quality Forecast Guidance indicates a small amount could be out
there blowing around. Highs on Saturday will be roughly 10 degrees
cooler than Friday, and right around seasonal average for this time
of the year.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Breezy conditions will return once again on Saturday, generally 15
to 25 mph. Temps top out around 70 degrees as rather potent upper
level energy drops south around Las Vegas. This energy will move
east into Sunday, with an accelerating jet aloft, and a tightening
pressure gradient at the sfc midday to afternoon hrs. As a
result, windy conditions are expected, with the chance for blowing
dust (especially/mainly for west TX given the west trajectories).
Cooler, below avg air will push into the Borderland as the next
system drops down from the northwest Monday into Tuesday. East
flow will shift to northwest flow at the sfc on Tuesday, with high
temps likely remaining in the 50s. Additionally, area mountain
snow showers will be possible as the energy aloft clips portions
of the northern CWA, with some light accumulation not out of the
question. This will quickly move east Wednesday, with continued
cool temps relative to average and westerly flow. Temps likely
warm up by the end of next week with no major weather impacts
anticipated at this time, although some breezy winds cannot be
ruled out.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
Deteriorating flying conditions as we move into the afternoon
thanks to a passing storm system. MVFR to IFR conditions will be
possible due to blowing dust from strong gusty winds in the
lowlands. VIS reductions down to 2 SM are possible. Isolated areas
with lower VIS are possible too. We'll be watching KDMN closely
as it's had visibilities reduced to 0.5 miles the past few dust
events due to a localized dust source. Currently, and this
afternoon, expect SW wind speeds at 15-30 kts and gusts up to
45-50 kts. Winds start to subside in the early evening, but the
passage of a cold front will keep gusty winds during the evening,
especially along east- slope locations. An AWW for KELP currently
ends at 8Z Saturday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Wind and dewpoint are acting as forecasted today, with critical
fire weather issues across much of the region. Going into tonight,
wind will begin to die down after dark, however east-facing
slopes will remain gusty through the overnight hours. RH recovers
overnight range from 90% (western areas) to 50% (eastern areas).
Tomorrow, we are going to remain breezy to windy as we remain under
the influence of a broad upper trough. West of the Rio Grande River
will see the strongest winds of 15-25 mph. RH will be in the teens
in the lowlands. SPC is highlighting eastern Otero and eastern
Hudspeth County for elevated fire weather conditions. At this time,
I'm not confident the wind will be there to issue a Red Flag Warning
for that area. There is another storm system expected on Sunday.
West to southwest winds rise up again to 20 to 35 mph with stronger
gusts across the area, while min RH remains dry in the lowlands.
Thus, critical fire weather conditions are possible again on
Sunday.
Early next week, dry weather continues. Monday winds are overall
light, but a backdoor cold front brings breezy to windy conditions
on Tuesday, while the next wave brings back another chance for light
rain. Ventilation ates will be very good to excellent today and
through the weekend, then deteriorate a bit early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 44 71 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 38 66 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 38 69 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 35 66 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 25 43 28 39 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 38 67 36 57 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 32 57 31 47 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 35 68 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 31 67 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 42 70 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 38 68 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 39 73 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 37 63 37 59 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 39 72 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 37 69 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 42 68 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 37 66 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 37 68 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 37 71 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 38 67 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 31 57 33 52 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 28 54 31 49 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 26 53 29 48 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 24 63 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 35 63 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 33 66 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 28 57 25 47 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 29 60 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 25 66 22 56 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 32 58 30 49 / 20 0 10 0
Faywood 32 61 31 51 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 30 69 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 30 68 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 34 69 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 32 62 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ110>112.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ402>411.
Wind Advisory until 2 AM MST Saturday for NMZ415-416.
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for TXZ055-056.
&&
$$
33-Reynolds/35-DeLizio/33