National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEPZ Received: 2022-03-04 21:58 UTC


690 
FXUS64 KEPZ 042158
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
258 PM MST Fri Mar 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds diminish overnight most locations, however, breezy to windy
conditions return for the weekend. Sunday will be the windier of
the two days, with the potential for patchy dust, especially for
Hudspeth county. Cooler conditions take hold into the earlier
portions of next week, with the potential for scattered area 
mountain snow showers later on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Very dry air is moving into the region thanks to strong 
southwesterly winds this afternoon. The storm system that's 
bringing not only this airmass, but the strong wind and blowing 
dust, in is currently located over southern Nevada. Dewpoints over
the region this morning were in the 30s. Already, there are 
pockets of single digit dewpoints (for example Dona Ana County 
Airport) and teens (El Paso International Airport); all areas will
fall into or below the teens this afternoon. The wind has been 
behaving as forecasted thus far, with the strongest southwest 
winds at 25 to 35 mph, with gusts up to 50 mph. Dust has been the 
wildcard going into today. Areas south of the International Border
to Luna, N. Dona Ana, and E Sierra counties received from a T to 
0.08" or so or rain last night. Looking at split window Goes 
satellite imagery... streamers of blowing dust are moving in from 
the Chihuahuan dust sources, so that small amount of precip isn't 
doing much for dust inhibition. 

Going into tonight, wind shifts westerly. There will still be a 
stout 40+/- knot jet overhead. While the atmosphere will slowly 
decouple aiding to keep the high wind speeds aloft in most 
locations, mountain wave turbulance will aid in continued wind gusts 
along east-slope locations. The aforementioned wind shift signifies 
a cooler airmass moving in overnight, therefore low temperatures 
across the area will be roughly ~10 degrees below this morning's 
lows. 

Saturday will be a transition day between weather systems as one 
system departs into the central Plains and another approaches 
southern Nevada. Winds are not expected to be as strong with WSW 
winds in the 15 to 25 mph range in the afternoon. I left blowing 
dust in the forecast as the surface dust concentration on the Air 
Quality Forecast Guidance indicates a small amount could be out 
there blowing around. Highs on Saturday will be roughly 10 degrees 
cooler than Friday, and right around seasonal average for this time 
of the year. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Breezy conditions will return once again on Saturday, generally 15
to 25 mph. Temps top out around 70 degrees as rather potent upper
level energy drops south around Las Vegas. This energy will move
east into Sunday, with an accelerating jet aloft, and a tightening
pressure gradient at the sfc midday to afternoon hrs. As a 
result, windy conditions are expected, with the chance for blowing
dust (especially/mainly for west TX given the west trajectories).

Cooler, below avg air will push into the Borderland as the next 
system drops down from the northwest Monday into Tuesday. East 
flow will shift to northwest flow at the sfc on Tuesday, with high
temps likely remaining in the 50s. Additionally, area mountain 
snow showers will be possible as the energy aloft clips portions
of the northern CWA, with some light accumulation not out of the 
question. This will quickly move east Wednesday, with continued 
cool temps relative to average and westerly flow. Temps likely 
warm up by the end of next week with no major weather impacts 
anticipated at this time, although some breezy winds cannot be 
ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
Deteriorating flying conditions as we move into the afternoon 
thanks to a passing storm system. MVFR to IFR conditions will be 
possible due to blowing dust from strong gusty winds in the 
lowlands. VIS reductions down to 2 SM are possible. Isolated areas
with lower VIS are possible too. We'll be watching KDMN closely 
as it's had visibilities reduced to 0.5 miles the past few dust 
events due to a localized dust source. Currently, and this 
afternoon, expect SW wind speeds at 15-30 kts and gusts up to 
45-50 kts. Winds start to subside in the early evening, but the 
passage of a cold front will keep gusty winds during the evening, 
especially along east- slope locations. An AWW for KELP currently 
ends at 8Z Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wind and dewpoint are acting as forecasted today, with critical 
fire weather issues across much of the region. Going into tonight,
wind will begin to die down after dark, however east-facing 
slopes will remain gusty through the overnight hours. RH recovers 
overnight range from 90% (western areas) to 50% (eastern areas).

Tomorrow, we are going to remain breezy to windy as we remain under 
the influence of a broad upper trough. West of the Rio Grande River 
will see the strongest winds of 15-25 mph. RH will be in the teens 
in the lowlands. SPC is highlighting eastern Otero and eastern 
Hudspeth County for elevated fire weather conditions. At this time, 
I'm not confident the wind will be there to issue a Red Flag Warning 
for that area.  There is another storm system expected on Sunday. 
West to southwest winds rise up again to 20 to 35 mph with stronger 
gusts across the area, while min RH remains dry in the lowlands.
 Thus, critical fire weather conditions are possible again on 
Sunday. 

Early next week, dry weather continues. Monday winds are overall 
light, but a  backdoor cold front brings breezy to windy conditions 
on Tuesday, while the next wave brings back another chance for light 
rain.  Ventilation ates will be very good to excellent today and 
through the weekend, then deteriorate a bit early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 44  71  42  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Sierra Blanca           38  66  37  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Las Cruces              38  69  37  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Alamogordo              35  66  37  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Cloudcroft              25  43  28  39 /   0   0   0   0 
Truth or Consequences   38  67  36  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Silver City             32  57  31  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Deming                  35  68  34  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Lordsburg               31  67  31  56 /   0   0   0   0 
West El Paso Metro      42  70  42  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Dell City               38  68  33  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Hancock            39  73  36  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Loma Linda              37  63  37  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Fabens                  39  72  36  69 /   0   0   0   0 
Santa Teresa            37  69  37  63 /   0   0   0   0 
White Sands HQ          42  68  41  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Jornada Range           37  66  36  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Hatch                   37  68  36  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Columbus                37  71  36  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Orogrande               38  67  38  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Mayhill                 31  57  33  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Mescalero               28  54  31  49 /   0   0   0   0 
Timberon                26  53  29  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Winston                 24  63  22  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Hillsboro               35  63  33  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Spaceport               33  66  35  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Lake Roberts            28  57  25  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Hurley                  29  60  27  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Cliff                   25  66  22  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Mule Creek              32  58  30  49 /  20   0  10   0 
Faywood                 32  61  31  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Animas                  30  69  33  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Hachita                 30  68  33  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Antelope Wells          34  69  34  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Cloverdale              32  62  33  54 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ110>112.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ402>411.

     Wind Advisory until 2 AM MST Saturday for NMZ415-416.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

33-Reynolds/35-DeLizio/33