National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEPZ Received: 2018-10-22 21:10 UTC


073 
FXUS64 KEPZ 222110
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
310 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level disturbances will bring a slight chance of
thunderstorms this evening, mostly focused over southwestern New 
Mexico, followed by widespread rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the entire region on Tuesday. A few
thunderstorms on Tuesday may become strong or severe, especially
if we can get some breaks in the cloud cover to develop. Drier and
quieter conditions will prevail Thursday and through the weekend,
with temperatures slowly climbing up towards seasonal levels by
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough extending from central Nevada into northern
Arizona will graze New Mexico this afternoon and evening, bringing
a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly to areas west of the Rio
Grande through tonight, with the highest chances over Grant and
Hidalgo Counties, where instability has increased thanks to
temperatures rising into the 70s with mid-50s dewpoints. (Note
some fairly healthy cu building up in the Bootheel and Cochise
County AZ). One or two storms in this area could become severe, 
with large hail the main threat.

A second, stronger shortwave trough currently off the southern 
California coast will move across Arizona and New Mexico Tuesday 
and Wednesday, bringing widespread light to moderate rainfall to 
the area, especially Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. 

The stronger forcing for lift looks to ramp up starting at 18Z
(Tue), as PVA increases in SW flow well ahead of the trough, and
upper level divergence increases in response to a 75 knot jet
streak nosing into west Texas. There is a conditional threat for
strong to severe thunderstorms...entirely dependent on the amount
of breaks in cloud cover which can develop in the late morning
hours. Several convection-allowing models indicate at least
isolated embedded convection Tue afternoon, with potentially
stronger storms in far SW New Mexico or SE Arizona during the
early evening hours, in stronger shear (being closer to the main
trough). Overall, this looks like more of a "widespread showers
with embedded isolated thunderstorms" situation with a few 
developing under breaks in the cloudcover potentially becoming 
severe, and racing off to the NE. 

With afternoon PW values increasing to 1.05 to 1.15 inches (a 
little over 2x the median for late Oct), expect localized moderate
to heavy downpours. Most areas will likely see precip in the 0.25
to 0.50 inch range, with embedded areas up to 1" through noon Wed.

The main trough will cross the Rio Grande by dawn Wednesday, with
a sharp cutoff in precip likely (perhaps even a line of
thunderstorms). Some lingering showers will persist through Noon
over the far east, then isolated showers will be possible later in
the afternoon mainly over the higher terrain in weak instability
and cyclonic flow aloft.

Dry northwest flow aloft will persist for the remainder of the
week and through the weekend as an upper ridge builds over Arizona
and Sonora. Temperatures will climb to near normal by the weekend,
for the first time in about two weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/00Z-24/00Z... 
Upper level trough moves over the region bringing showers and 
thunderstorms. VFR conditions early in most locations up to 6Z then 
MVFR conditions are possible due to lower ceilings around 2-4 kft 
and visibilities to 3SM, as the trough approaches the area. The 
mountains and localized portions of the lowlands could observe some 
fog in the early morning hours. Areas near thunderstorms could 
experience lower VIS and CIGS as well as stronger winds. Generally 
winds will be from the east and southeast around 5 to 15 kts.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper level trough moving east is going to bring showers and 
thunderstorms before we go back to a warming and drying trend. The 
approach of the trough brings slight chances for storms overnight, 
but tomorrow numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms should 
be expected area wide. Some of these storms may be capable to 
produce large hail and strong damaging winds. Localized areas of 
heavy rain and flash flooding could be possible too. This also means 
that the minimum relative humidity values are going up, from the 40s 
and 50s into the upper 60s and above. 

On Wednesday, the upper trough leaves the region and we remain with 
some slight rain chances in the eastern zones. The warming trend 
starts right after this as temperatures start to climb up as more 
drier and warmer air comes in as an upper ridge starts developing 
over in the West Coast. Min RH values will start decreasing from 
west to east, until they reach the upper 20s and 30s. Those values 
along with usually light winds indicate that we do not expect any 
critical fire weather conditions for this period. However, vent 
rates remain quite poor due to the low mixing levels combined with 
the aforementioned light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 59  65  54  67 /  20  80  80  20 
Sierra Blanca           54  63  49  62 /  10  60  80  30 
Las Cruces              55  64  52  66 /  20  80  80  30 
Alamogordo              54  63  50  64 /  20  80  80  50 
Cloudcroft              39  46  35  48 /  10 100  90  60 
Truth or Consequences   54  63  50  66 /  30  90  70  20 
Silver City             49  60  46  64 /  30  90  70  20 
Deming                  56  65  51  68 /  20  80  70  20 
Lordsburg               55  67  51  69 /  30  80  70   0 
West El Paso Metro      58  65  53  66 /  20  80  80  20 
Dell City               56  63  51  64 /  10  70  80  30 
Fort Hancock            57  68  54  68 /  10  60  80  20 
Loma Linda              54  61  47  62 /  10  70  70  30 
Fabens                  57  67  52  68 /  10  70  80  20 
Santa Teresa            57  65  52  66 /  20  80  80  20 
White Sands HQ          57  63  53  66 /  20  80  90  40 
Jornada Range           55  63  52  65 /  20  80  80  40 
Hatch                   56  65  52  67 /  20  80  80  20 
Columbus                57  66  53  68 /  20  80  60  10 
Orogrande               57  64  51  65 /  10  80  80  40 
Mayhill                 43  51  39  53 /  10  90  90  60 
Mescalero               44  52  40  54 /  10  90  90  60 
Timberon                45  53  41  54 /  10  90  90  60 
Winston                 45  57  41  62 /  40  90  80  30 
Hillsboro               50  61  47  66 /  30  90  80  30 
Spaceport               53  63  50  65 /  20  90  80  30 
Lake Roberts            44  60  41  64 /  40  90  80  10 
Hurley                  50  61  47  65 /  30  80  70  20 
Cliff                   50  66  46  69 /  40  80  70  10 
Mule Creek              51  64  45  67 /  50  80  80  10 
Faywood                 51  61  48  64 /  30  80  70  20 
Animas                  55  67  52  70 /  30  70  60   0 
Hachita                 55  66  51  69 /  20  70  70  10 
Antelope Wells          54  67  51  69 /  30  70  60  10 
Cloverdale              53  66  50  68 /  30  60  50   0 

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman / 29-Crespo