National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEPZ Received: 2019-04-26 10:17 UTC


215 
FXUS64 KEPZ 261017
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
417 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Our warm and quiet weather pattern will continue today through
Sunday. On Monday we will see breezy to windy conditions with a
slight chance for rain in area mountains. We will dry out on
Tuesday, but will again see breezy to windy conditions in the
afternoon. For the middle of next week we will be dry with
seasonal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Despite an upper level ridge aloft keeping our temperatures above
average and our winds light we still have weak convergence at the
surface, so I can't rule out a stray shower our thunderstorm 
across the northern part of the area today. By this evening, the 
upper level ridge will flatten out as drier westerly surface winds
spread across the region. For Saturday and Sunday we see some 
great outdoor weather, not much wind (maybe a little breezy each 
afternoon) and high temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above 
average.

For Monday and Tuesday we will see the approach of an upper level
trough. There is still somewhat of a timing difference between the
GFS and ECMWF, with the GFS still being about 6 to 12 hours faster
with moving the low across northern New Mexico. Right now, neither
model is hitting the winds too hard, so breezy to windy 
conditions on both days still looks good. In addition to some 
increased winds, as the upper low lifts across northern New Mexico
it will help give us a slight chance for rain Monday night into 
Tuesday. The best chances for rain will be in area mountains and 
east of El Paso. Slightly cooler and drier air will work in behind
the upper level trough after it moves to our east, this will give
us seasonal temperatures for the middle of next week. Looking 
just beyond the forecast period, both the extended models bring a 
back door cold front across the region for the end of next week. 
The GFS is cooler with a good chance for rain, while the ECMWF is 
cooler but much drier. It will be interesting to see which model 
verifies. 

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 26/00Z-27/00Z... 
VFR conditions through the period. P6SM SKC through 12Z. Winds VRB 
<10KTS through 15Z-18Z then shifting around to the S-SW and 
eventually the W at 10-15KTS. Winds will be westerly AOB 11KT's 
after 03Z. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Zonal flow over the region will help to warm temperatures back 
up to the upper 80s to lower 90s lowlands for the next several 
days. Relative humidities will also be falling into the teens and 
even single digits, but winds through the weekend will not meet 
crtical strenghth. An upper low moving through southern CA and 
eventually lifting out through central NM will bring increasing 
winds for early next week. Critical conditions are possible with the 
speeds, especially east, but some moisture moving in could bring the 
dew points back up into the 30s and 40s. Min RH look to be in the 
teens in the lowlands during this time, but over higher terrain 
(>6,000FT AGL) jumps into the 20's. Mostly dry conditions and W 
- SW winds return to close out next week. Vent rates look 
generally very good to excellent for the coming days as mixing 
heights go above 11-12kft. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 91  65  91  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Sierra Blanca           84  59  85  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Las Cruces              88  59  88  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Alamogordo              87  59  88  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Cloudcroft              63  48  66  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Truth or Consequences   87  59  89  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Silver City             80  53  78  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Deming                  89  55  88  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Lordsburg               89  56  86  53 /   0   0   0   0 
West El Paso Metro      91  65  90  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Dell City               88  60  92  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Hancock            91  62  92  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Loma Linda              85  61  85  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Fabens                  92  64  92  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Santa Teresa            90  62  89  58 /   0   0   0   0 
White Sands HQ          88  63  88  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Jornada Range           88  57  88  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Hatch                   89  57  89  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Columbus                91  60  89  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Orogrande               88  60  88  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Mayhill                 73  52  77  49 /  10   0   0   0 
Mescalero               73  51  76  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Timberon                72  51  73  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Winston                 80  48  80  44 /  10   0   0   0 
Hillsboro               85  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Spaceport               87  56  89  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Lake Roberts            79  45  80  44 /   0   0   0   0 
Hurley                  83  52  82  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Cliff                   87  51  86  44 /   0   0   0   0 
Mule Creek              83  54  81  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Faywood                 84  54  83  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Animas                  90  56  89  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Hachita                 90  55  88  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Antelope Wells          89  56  87  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Cloverdale              85  54  82  53 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Dhuyvetter