National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEPZ Received: 2018-05-21 18:12 UTC


832 
FXUS64 KEPZ 211812
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1212 PM MDT Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist unstable air will flow into southern New Mexico and west
Texas this afternoon and tonight. As a result there will 
thunderstorms across much of the region with large hail, damaging
winds and heavy rains falling over some locations this afternoon 
and tonight. More thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday mainly 
east of the Rio Grande with dry seasonably warm weather elsewhere.
Westerly winds will produce mostly dry weather with very warm 
temperatures Wednesday through early next week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Low level east to southeast winds are transporting moist unstable
air into much of southern New Mexico and west Texas early this
afternoon with surface dewpoints above 50 F as far west as Deming
as of noon. Thus air mass rather unstable with MUCAPES already 
from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Upper low was meanwhile located over 
southern Nevada and weak short waves are expected to eject ahead 
of it to the northeast across the southern Rockies with these 
features acting as possible storm initiation mechanisms. In 
addition convective inhibition was minimal with surface heating 
possibly initiating updrafts. Finally upslope flow will likely 
force storms over high or sloping terrain. Thus deep convection 
expected across at least eastern half of the CWA with storm 
outflows also sustaining activity into the evening. 

Southwest winds around 35 kt will support 0-6 km shear from 30 to
40 kt which in turn will enhance and sustain updrafts. Wet bulb 
zero heights were also rather low below 9000 feet agl while DCAPE 
values were above 1300 J/kg for much of the region. These factors
indicate risk of severe thunderstorms with large hail and 
damaging winds. Abundant low level moisture inflow/flux will also 
support isolated storms producing very heavy rains with a flash 
flood threat. 

The upper low will drift slowly east the next several days which
will cause low level winds to gradually become more southwesterly
from west to east. Consequently expect moist unstable air and 
thus thunderstorms will be confined mostly eastern Otero and
Hudspeth Counties Tuesday through Thursday followed by warm dry
weather all locations Friday through next Monday. 

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 22/00Z-22/00Z... 
VFR conditions expected through forecast period. Expect P6SM SCT-BKN 
060 100-130 250 SE WINDS 12G22KTS PSBL E OF RIO GRANDE 21Z-06Z  LCL 
BKN-OVC010 1SM +TSRAGR WINDS VRB35G50KT. AFT 06Z SCT 060 130 250 
WINDS 12012KT. AREAS BKN030 6SM -TSRA OVER ERN OTERO/HUDSPETH 
COUNTIES TIL 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Following a change of air mass last night and a switch to SE winds, 
Gulf of Mexico moisture continues to stream into our area. An upper 
level low pressure system continues to develop over southern 
California. This will provide a moist unstable environment to set of 
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, developing near the Rio 
Grande in New Mexico and increasing in coverage as they spread 
eastward. Some storms may produce damaging winds and large hail. 
Drier conditions are expected for much of rest of the week with 
temperatures climbing back into the 90s by Wednesday, and maybe 
approaching the 100 degree mark in the lowlands heading into the 
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 63  90  64  93 /  40   0   0   0 
Sierra Blanca           60  86  62  89 /  80  20  20  20 
Las Cruces              57  88  57  89 /  20   0   0   0 
Alamogordo              58  85  59  88 /  70  10   0   0 
Cloudcroft              44  66  45  67 /  80  20  10  20 
Truth or Consequences   58  87  57  89 /  20   0   0   0 
Silver City             51  81  52  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Deming                  53  88  52  89 /  10   0   0   0 
Lordsburg               53  87  53  87 /   0   0   0   0 
West El Paso Metro      64  89  64  92 /  40   0   0   0 
Dell City               58  87  59  91 /  80  20  20  20 
Fort Hancock            63  91  65  94 /  80  20  10  10 
Loma Linda              59  85  61  88 /  70  10  10   0 
Fabens                  60  92  60  93 /  50   0  10   0 
Santa Teresa            57  89  58  90 /  30   0   0   0 
White Sands HQ          63  87  63  89 /  40   0   0   0 
Jornada Range           55  88  54  90 /  30   0   0   0 
Hatch                   55  90  54  91 /  20   0   0   0 
Columbus                59  90  57  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Orogrande               61  87  61  89 /  60  10  10   0 
Mayhill                 47  74  49  76 /  80  20  10  20 
Mescalero               48  74  48  76 /  80  20  10  20 
Timberon                45  72  46  74 /  80  20  10  20 
Winston                 47  80  48  83 /  20   0   0   0 
Hillsboro               52  84  53  86 /  20   0   0   0 
Spaceport               56  87  55  89 /  30   0   0   0 
Lake Roberts            43  79  43  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Hurley                  49  82  47  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Cliff                   43  85  43  85 /   0   0   0   0 
Mule Creek              50  84  50  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Faywood                 51  82  50  84 /  10   0   0   0 
Animas                  52  88  52  89 /   0   0   0   0 
Hachita                 52  88  52  90 /   0   0   0   0 
Antelope Wells          54  88  52  89 /   0   0   0   0 
Cloverdale              52  82  52  84 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash/20 Novlan