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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEPZ Received: 2019-01-17 11:43 UTC


145 
FXUS64 KEPZ 171143
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
443 AM MST Thu Jan 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
One more pleasant day today as southwest flow aloft continues,
pushing some higher clouds across the area but also keeping
temperatures about 5 to 8 degrees above normal. A rapidly moving
winter storm pushes into our area on Friday, spreading some
showers to the Borderland, though limited mostly to the mountains,
where 1-3 inches of snow are possible above 7000 feet. Winds will
increase across the entire area by late morning and afternoon,
with west winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph. The storm
exits Friday evening, leaving behind a sunny but cooler Saturday.
High pressure moves in Sunday and Monday for much warmer
temperatures. However more winds on Monday as weaker Pacific storm
passes by just our north. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Looks like a bit of a rollercoaster weather wise over the next 
week as we bounce back and forth between unseasonably warm 
weather and cool weather. In the near term, continued split flow 
will bring a weak disturbance over the Baja across northern Mexico
through this evening. This will continue to push some higher 
clouds over the area through this evening, but little else.

Friday...our winter storm is still on schedule but models have
backed off relatively high QPF numbers. This makes sense as models
have been advertising PWs of .30-.40 inches over the mountains for
several runs. Associated surface cold front will drop down from
the northwest, with strong winds ahead of it. Have decided to
issue Wind Advisory due to this. Models show low level winds of
30-35 mph. Mixing heights from prog soundings only look to be
about 750 mb, which show about 40-45 mph. Snow levels will fall
quickly to around 6000 ft by late afternoon. Both NAM/GFS show
rapid drying out (dewpoints of 15-25 degrees) behind front, so
precip should end by late afternoon. Mountains could still see 1-3
inches of snow, especially above 7000 ft. Temperatures tricky to
forecast. Most places will probably see early day highs not too
much cooler than today (the northern zones may see midnight or
early morning highs).

Saturday and Sunday...upper ridge builds in rapidly behind 
exiting storm and ahead of next Pacific storm system. Highs 
Saturday should be about 5-10 degrees cooler than Friday, but then
warm back above normal on Sunday.

Monday (Martin Luther King Day)...warm temperatures will continue
but next storm sweeps across northern New Mexico and the central
Rockies. Precip likely will remain north of the area but strong
upper trough does reach the mountains Monday night, so did include
low POPs for the mountains Monday night. Winds will pick up again,
perhaps into the low end Wind Advisory criteria. 

Remainder of next week...looks to remain dry as upper ridge 
builds over the western U.S. and we remain in the dry northwest 
flow. Temperatures will remain a bit below normal. 

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 17/12Z-18/12Z... 
P6SM SCT150 SCT-BKN250 through much of the period. Winds less 
than 10 kts this morning; becoming south/southwest 7-12 kts this 
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
One last sunny, warm day today with highs well above normal.
Pacific winter storm moves in Friday with some light mountain snow
and a few lowland rain showers expected. Winds will increase
significantly, reaching 25-35 mph by late morning and afternoon.
Clear skies again for the weekend, with below normal high
temperatures Saturday warming back above normal on Sunday. Another
storm moves across New Mexico Monday. Just a few mountain snow
showers possible, but winds will increase back to 25-35 mph. 

Min RHs will remain mostly 25-35 percent through the weekend. Vent
rates will be poor today but should be good-excellent Friday with
the strong winds moving in. Vent rates back to poor for the
weekend as winds subside.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 67  46  63  37 /   0   0  10   0 
Sierra Blanca           67  41  63  35 /   0   0   0   0 
Las Cruces              65  41  60  34 /   0   0  10   0 
Alamogordo              63  40  58  32 /   0   0  20   0 
Cloudcroft              47  31  37  22 /   0   0  30   0 
Truth or Consequences   61  39  56  32 /   0   0  20   0 
Silver City             60  37  44  30 /   0  10  40   0 
Deming                  65  39  58  31 /   0   0  10   0 
Lordsburg               64  39  55  31 /   0   0  20   0 
West El Paso Metro      66  45  61  37 /   0   0  10   0 
Dell City               68  40  63  35 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Hancock            70  43  66  36 /   0   0   0   0 
Loma Linda              64  42  57  34 /   0   0  10   0 
Fabens                  68  44  64  36 /   0   0   0   0 
Santa Teresa            65  42  62  35 /   0   0  10   0 
White Sands HQ          65  42  60  35 /   0   0  10   0 
Jornada Range           64  39  59  32 /   0   0  10   0 
Hatch                   65  39  60  33 /   0   0  10   0 
Columbus                66  40  61  33 /   0   0   0   0 
Orogrande               63  40  60  33 /   0   0  10   0 
Mayhill                 58  38  46  27 /   0   0  30   0 
Mescalero               55  35  44  25 /   0   0  30   0 
Timberon                54  34  45  25 /   0   0  30   0 
Winston                 59  34  47  25 /   0  10  40   0 
Hillsboro               63  38  53  30 /   0   0  20   0 
Spaceport               62  38  58  32 /   0   0  10   0 
Lake Roberts            59  33  43  26 /   0  10  50   0 
Hurley                  61  38  44  29 /   0   0  30   0 
Cliff                   62  35  48  26 /   0  10  40   0 
Mule Creek              60  38  48  28 /   0  10  50   0 
Faywood                 62  38  45  30 /   0   0  20   0 
Animas                  65  39  58  32 /   0   0   0   0 
Hachita                 65  37  59  30 /   0   0   0   0 
Antelope Wells          66  40  60  31 /   0   0   0   0 
Cloverdale              65  40  55  32 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Friday for NMZ401>417.

TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Friday for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

17 Hefner