042 
FXUS63 KEAX 020837
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
237 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Milder Weather Next Few Days

- Possible Light Precipitation Northern and Northeast Missouri 
  Wednesday

- Overall Cold, Slightly Warmer Today, But Very Cold End of Week 
  Again

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Trough axis that brought Monday's snowfall has moved east of the 
Mississippi River overnight. Mid to upper-level flow is still 
northwesterly, which will maintain cold air through the early 
Tuesday morning hours. There is another trough just off the coast of 
the Pacific Northwest Region, but this is helping to promote a 
modest ridge axis in the Northern High Plains this morning. This has 
led to an AVA regime across most of the Central CONUS and is 
providing reinforcement of the surface anticyclone. Lingering 
stratiform cloud deck is starting to deteriorate with this 
subsidence and is pushing eastward. For the very short term forecast 
through 14z this morning, will need to watch fog and freezing fog 
potential where this stratus clears out. However, drier air has been 
filtering in, which may inhibit fog development. For the remainder 
of Tuesday, the Pacific Northwest trough gradually erodes the AVA 
regime, and deamplifies the modest mid-level ridge axis. By the 
afternoon, mid-level flow will be zonal, though may have decent 
velocity to it with a stronger height gradient, as well as colder 
air from the Central Canadian Prairie Provinces helping to 
strengthen that gradient. A lobe of vorticity is progged to eject 
across the Front Range and toward the OK/TX panhandle region later 
this afternoon, and will attempt to develop a surface cyclone there, 
while pushing the anticyclone in our area eastward. This will turn 
our low-level flow south to southwesterly through the afternoon, and 
provide modest WAA, especially for west-central Missouri and eastern 
Kansas. Some model guidance suggests our afternoon highs will hit 
the upper 30s this afternoon as it occurs. However, varying degrees 
of model snow depth has created a decent spread in output solutions, 
and the bias corrected inputs into some of the blends may be playing 
a role in that. With the fresh snowpack on the ground, with a lot of 
areas seeing 2 to 3 inches, would expect the lower range of 
temperatures for this afternoon. Therefore, have trended slightly 
below the NBM 50th percentile for highs this afternoon, especially 
western Missouri and eastern Kansas. Most locations though may still 
be able to reach air temperatures above freezing for a few hours 
this afternoon for the southwestern third of the forecast area. 
North-central and northeast Missouri may stay below 32F today.

Wednesday, weather activity is not expected to be notable for our 
region. However, large scale synoptic pattern across the CONUS will 
have multiple features that will play a role in how things progress 
through the end of the week. The aforementioned Pacific Northwest 
trough digs into the southern Rockies region, while a deep closed 
low system sits between the Northern Great Lakes and Hudson Bay. 
This sets up strong mid to upper-level northwesterly flow for the 
Central CONUS, and will push a strong surface anticyclone and Arctic 
Airmass southeastward. With the preceding modest WAA from Tuesday, 
this will setup a baroclinic zone, with the northwesterly flow 
pushing this boundary as a cold front. Most soundings are showing a 
fairly moisture deprived troposphere as this moves through. However, 
convergence along this front will be quite strong, and may produce 
some light snow in north-central and northeastern Missouri. Most of 
the deterministic global scale NWP is dry with respect to QPF. 
Respective ensembles indicate some low end potential for detectable 
precipitation, which based on the temperatures would be all snow. 
00z HREF depicts few hundredths of an inch of QPF, which would 
translate to a few tenths of an inch of snow. For now, forecast will 
include slight chance POPs for north-central Missouri. Slightly 
stronger forcing will be located just outside of our forecast area 
in northeast Missouri, primarily east and northeast of Kirksville. 
The main story with this airmass though will be the return to very 
cold temperatures, with our northeast counties perhaps only seeing 
highs in the upper teens, with upper 20s elsewhere. This may result 
in wind chill values between 10 below to 15 below zero from Harrison 
County MO eastward to Adair and Schuyler Counties. 

For the weekend, another trough will move across the Central CONUS 
and provide forcing for some precipitation. Current guidance 
depictions favor our northeast and eastern counties with this, as 
well as better ensemble probabilities for detectable precipitation 
for central Missouri and eastern Missouri. Temperatures over the 
weekend into the start of next week fluctuate between the mid 20s 
and upper 30s for afternoon highs, with lows generally in the teens. 
Inner-quartile spread amongst NBM and other ensemble systems though 
is fairly large, given the passage of multiple waves. Strongest 
signal for the coldest temperatures are kept more for northeast and 
east-central Missouri. A westward shift though could change
that. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

MVFR stratus deck is slowly moving off to the east, and should
be clear of the KC metro and STJ terminals between 08z-10z
Tuesday morning. Watching the potential for fog on the backside
of the stratus deck, but unsure if cooling in clear skies will
allow for fog development. The fresh snowpack may impact this.
Winds remain less than 10kts for most of 06z TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Krull