National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP Received: 2019-03-16 01:25 UTC


020 
FXUS64 KCRP 160125
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
825 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...

00Z CRP sounding indicated some (albeit small) elevated CAPE this
evening. This combined with a relatively strong short wave moving
through Deep South Texas has led to the development of a few
thunderstorms. Thus far, they have stayed mainly south of the
forecast area, however expect these to push into Kleberg and
possibly eastern portions of Nueces county over the next few
hours. Have added thunder mention into forecast grids for the
night as this disturbance moves eastward into marine zones. Have
also adjusted temperatures a bit with cooling occurring a bit
slower than forecast indicated. Will not make changes to forecast
min temps at this time, thinking it's just taking a bit longer to
come down. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 642 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

Have let the CFW expire as we go into a lower tide period at most
sites. Will monitor for the possibility of another CFW tomorrow. 

AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through the period with mainly mid and
high level clouds over the region. A few showers will be possible
mainly east during the day on Saturday as isentropic lift develops.
Winds remain out of the NE at light to moderate levels. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 329 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019/ 

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday night)...

Upper level disturbances are predicted by the deterministic 
models to move across the Midwest/Great Lakes tonight, and across 
the NRN Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley Saturday, which will 
maintain the surface ridge/cool airmass over the CWA/MSA during 
the period. The upper system currently over NW Mexico/south of 
the Four Corners region is predicted to provide increasing 
synoptic scale lift over Texas late tonight/Saturday, yet with the
bulk of the forcing north of the CWA/MSA. Nevertheless, isentropic
lift is expected to develop/increase tonight and persist 
Saturday/Saturday night. Anticipate isolated/scattered showers 
over portions of the CWA/MSA for much of the period. Greatest 
chance south and east based on predicted PWAT values. The tide 
level at Bob Hall Pier reached 2ft MSL today near the time of high
tide, and have since fallen below that level. Will allow the CFW 
to expire at 23z. Due to the Ekman spiral owing to persistent NE 
flow expected during the period, 2ft MSL tide levels may occur 
again Saturday afternoon near the time of high tide.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

A cloudy and cool pattern will persist through Tuesday across the 
CWA as northeasterly low level flow persists with overrunning 
moisture aloft.  Rain chances during this time-frame will peak on 
Monday with the approach of a shortwave trough axis of modest 
strength.  Stable conditions should preclude the development of 
thunder except perhaps over the far offshore waters.  A shortwave 
ridge axis will then build into the CWA from Tuesday into Thursday. 
As a result, the airmass is expected to slowly dry out through this 
particular time period.  A slow warming trend is also expected 
during this time period.  By Friday, the next stronger shortwave 
will be approaching.  An increasing veering wind profile will aid 
the warming and moistening process.  Rain and thunderstorm chances 
will be increasing by late in the extended due to this shortwave.  

MARINE... 

Will allow the SCA to expire at 21z over the SRN bays based on 
expected wind trends, and extended the SCA over the nearshore 
waters until 01z based on anticipated sea heights. SCA conditions 
over the offshore coastal waters should persist overnight owing to
the persistent MSLP gradient (greater MSLP gradient to the north 
combined with the surface low/trough near the Bay of Campeche) and
high seas. Extended the SCA over the offshore waters until 18z 
Saturday. The combination of upper disturbances and isentropic 
lift is expected to generate isolated/scattered showers tonight 
through Saturday night.

Elevated seas will persist through the middle of next week as 
moderate to occasionally strong E/NE flow prevails over the waters. 
Borderline SCA conditions will be possible, especially on Tuesday. 
Winds will veer to a more SE component by the end of the week in 
response to the approaching strong shortwave.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    48  56  47  62  49  /  30  30  20  20  20 
Victoria          46  55  44  64  45  /  20  20  10  20  10 
Laredo            49  57  46  63  49  /  10  10  10  10  20 
Alice             47  56  45  62  47  /  20  30  20  20  10 
Rockport          48  56  48  62  51  /  30  30  20  20  10 
Cotulla           46  56  43  64  46  /  10  10  10  10  10 
Kingsville        47  56  46  62  48  /  30  30  20  20  20 
Navy Corpus       51  57  50  62  54  /  40  30  20  30  20 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday For the following 
     zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 
     NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel 
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

PH/83...SHORT TERM