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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP Received: 2019-02-12 10:45 UTC


937 
FXUS64 KCRP 121045
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
445 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

The cold front pushed through South Texas early this morning with 
showers lingering behind the front. Will expect showers to diminish 
through the morning as drier and cooler air builds into the
region. Leaned toward the cooler side of guidance with CAA through
the day especially across the eastern CWA toward the Victoria
Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend. The northerly flow and 
drier air will also allow for clearing of fog across the bays and 
nearshore waters today and Wednesday. Moderate to strong offshore
flow will develop today for the waters, with Small Craft
Advisories in effect for the offshore waters. Will expect winds to
gradually diminish through tonight and become onshore Wednesday as
surface high pressure shifts eastward. Clearing skies and weak
winds tonight will allow lows to dip into the upper 30s to low 
40s for much of the inland areas with mid to upper 40s along the 
coast. Minor modifications to the airmass Wednesday should
maintain rather similar cool temperatures Wednesday as today, with
highs generally in the low to mid 60s across areas generally east
of I-37, and highs in the upper 60s for areas generally west of
I-37. 

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...

Medium range models are in relatively good agreement in the 
synoptic scale when the period initiates but some model spread is 
noted with time. The primary differences between the models concerns 
the timing with a pair of cold fronts that will be crossing the area 
late in the period. Since we are talking several days out, will 
simply go with a blend of forecast solutions at this time.

Upper flow expected to remain nearly quasi-zonal through the period 
with quiet conditions expected overall. No significant changes have 
been made to the extended forecast as a mainly dry pattern is 
expected with the jet stream remaining north of the region.

High pressure will predominate early with cloud cover at a minimum 
both Thursday and Friday. However there could be some patchy sea fog 
developing Thursday Afternoon through Friday as 60 degree dew points 
make a come back with the return off onshore flow.

Models differences start to emerge Friday and beyond concerning a 
cold front that will be moving through South Texas. For consistency 
sake, will trend closer to GFS with front pushing through the our 
CWA Friday Afternoon. Another stronger boundary is expected to push 
through Saturday night and into Sunday with timing and intensity 
differences noted again. The second system will have a little more 
dynamics to work with compared to the first one and will hold onto 
to slight chance to low end chance pops. 

Temperatures will be mild through Friday, especially away from the 
coast before dropping a bit Saturday in the wake of the first front. 
Temperatures will rebound Sunday before turning markedly colder early 
next week.

.MARINE...

Small Craft Advisory conditions today for the offshore waters
20nm-60nm out due to northerly winds of 20-25 KTs. Across the 
nearshore waters and bays, Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines 
are in place for northerly winds of 15-20 KTs. Winds will
gradually diminish this evening as surface high pressure builds
into the region. Weak to moderate onshore flow will develop
Wednesday. 

Some patchy fog may develop Thursday afternoon through early 
Friday. Another cold front will move across the waters Friday 
afternoon and result in moderate to strong offshore flow. No 
precipitation is expected with this boundary. Weak easterly winds 
will develop on Saturday as high pressure moves east. Another 
mainly dry cold front will move through Saturday night and Sunday
with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible once again in its
wake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    67  42  67  55  77  /  20   0   0  10  10 
Victoria          63  37  65  52  74  /  10   0   0  10  10 
Laredo            69  41  70  54  79  /  10   0   0   0  10 
Alice             68  40  69  53  79  /  10   0   0  10  10 
Rockport          63  46  63  57  70  /  20   0   0  10  10 
Cotulla           68  37  68  50  78  /   0   0   0   0  10 
Kingsville        69  40  69  55  79  /  20   0   0  10  10 
Navy Corpus       63  51  65  59  72  /  20   0   0  10  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening For the 
     following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas 
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda 
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
JG/99...LONG TERM