National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP Received: 2019-02-12 04:45 UTC

FXUS64 KCRP 120445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1045 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated aviation forecast for 06z TAF cycle.



Prefrontal trough has pushed through the terminals, scouring out
the majority of the low clouds. Isolated to scattered precip
shield out ahead of the cold front is now edging down into the
Coastal Bend. Expect VFR prevailing with MVFR vsbys temporarily 
in light rain and fog until frontal passage, with VFR thereafter.
Winds will turn northwest to north and gusty right after fropa,
eventually turning northeast and diminishing late in the period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 937 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 


Current forecast generally on track. MSAS/GOES 16/WSR-88D returns
show prefrontal trough pushing through the western parts of the
Coastal Bend, with some visibility improvements noted behind the
trough. Ahead of the trough patchy dense fog has once again 
formed along and just offshore. Expect that fog development will 
be hindered by the prefrontal trough passage, but it may take the
actual frontal passage to get drier air into the region and end 
the threat entirely. Will continue to monitor for potential marine
fog headlines, but the may not be needed given limited duration. 
Isolated to scattered showers or light rain have been noted along 
and ahead of the cold front, and expect that activity to pass 
through the region through the early morning hours. Still expect 
frontal passage from northwest to southeast overnight, with the 
front clearing the coast by daybreak. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 530 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAF cycle.


Dynamic forecast this cycle. Copious low level moisture producing
MVFR vsbys all but far west terminals. A prefrontal trough is
currently rolling from west to east across the area, and expect
that will come through the area before midnight. Actual cold front
will trail behind 3-6 hours, and it's that front that will lead to
improved flying conditions. Winds will turn out of the north right
behind the front, with gusty winds through the morning and early
afternoon. Expect VFR cigs and vsbys by right around daybreak, 
with continuing improvement through the day as those northerly 
surface winds bring drier air into the region. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night)...

Concur with the ECMWF/NAM prediction of 700-300mb q-vector
convergence associated with the upper level disturbance predicted
to move across CWA/MSA tonight/Tuesday. The associated pre- 
frontal trough and cold front is expected to trigger 
isolated/scattered showers over the CWA/MSA tonight/early Tuesday
(The NAM deterministic predicts PWAT values well above normal in
advance of the surface trough/front.) NAM dterministic predicts
very limited CAPE in advance of this front. However, the upper 
system may lift the mid/upper level convectively unstable layer to
generate isolated thunderstorms. Nevertheless, will restrict 
thunder to the MSA. Much drier Tuesday with PWAT values falling to
around 0.25 inch over the CWA per the NAM deterministic. Colder 
Tuesday night, yet with minimum temperatures above freezing. 
Elevated Fire Weather conditions may occur Tuesday afternoon over 
the ERN CWA, yet wind will be the limiting factor.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday Night)...

Overall beneign weather is expected through the end of the work week 
with no significant chances for precipitation as jetstream remains 
north of the region. Expect a gradual warming trend Wed-Fri with a 
return of onshore winds.  Expect highs to climb from near 70 on 
Wednesday to the low to mid 80s by Friday as low level winds become 
more southwesterly. Expect very little in the way of cloud cover Wed-
Fri, however there could be some patchy sea fog developing Thursday 
Afternoon through Friday as 60 degree dwpts return.  Models diverge 
on solutions Friday and beyond with the GFS showing a stronger short 
wave and associated cold front moving through the southern plains 
than the ECMWF. For consistency sake, will trend closer to GFS with 
front pushing through our CWA Friday Afternoon. However confidence 
is low in the extended reaches of the forecast. The zonal flow over 
the CONUS is expected to settle farther south late in the weekend 
allowing arctic air to approach Sunday.  


Scattered convection expected late tonight through early Tuesday
owing to the upper disturbance/associated cold front. Issued a 
SCA for the offshore waters for the 15z Tuesday- 00z Wednesday 
period, in response to the front, based on deterministic output 
and to a lesser extent SREF probabilities. A weak to moderate 
onshore flow will return on Wednesday and Thursday. Patchy sea fog
is possible Thursday afternoon through early Friday. Another cold
front will likely move across the waters Friday and result in 
moderate to strong offshore flow. No precipitation is expected 
with this boundary.


Corpus Christi    57  69  43  68  56  /  40  10   0   0  10 
Victoria          54  66  37  66  53  /  40   0   0   0  10 
Laredo            55  70  43  71  55  /  20   0   0   0  10 
Alice             56  68  39  71  54  /  40  10   0   0  10 
Rockport          57  66  47  64  58  /  40  10  10   0  10 
Cotulla           47  69  38  69  51  /  20   0   0   0   0 
Kingsville        57  70  41  71  55  /  40  10   0   0  10 
Navy Corpus       59  68  50  66  59  /  40  10   0   0  10 


GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday For the 
     following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas 
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda 
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.