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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP Received: 2019-02-11 21:57 UTC


959 
FXUS64 KCRP 112157
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
357 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night)...

Concur with the ECMWF/NAM prediction of 700-300mb q-vector
convergence associated with the upper level disturbance predicted
to move across CWA/MSA tonight/Tuesday. The associated pre- 
frontal trough and cold front is expected to trigger 
isolated/scattered showers over the CWA/MSA tonight/early Tuesday
(The NAM deterministic predicts PWAT values well above normal in
advance of the surface trough/front.) NAM dterministic predicts
very limited CAPE in advance of this front. However, the upper 
system may lift the mid/upper level convectively unstable layer to
generate isolated thunderstorms. Nevertheless, will restrict 
thunder to the MSA. Much drier Tuesday with PWAT values falling to
around 0.25 inch over the CWA per the NAM deterministic. Colder 
Tuesday night, yet with minimum temperatures above freezing. 
Elevated Fire Weather conditions may occur Tuesday afternoon over 
the ERN CWA, yet wind will be the limiting factor.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday Night)...

Overall beneign weather is expected through the end of the work week 
with no significant chances for precipitation as jetstream remains 
north of the region. Expect a gradual warming trend Wed-Fri with a 
return of onshore winds.  Expect highs to climb from near 70 on 
Wednesday to the low to mid 80s by Friday as low level winds become 
more southwesterly. Expect very little in the way of cloud cover Wed-
Fri, however there could be some patchy sea fog developing Thursday 
Afternoon through Friday as 60 degree dwpts return.  Models diverge 
on solutions Friday and beyond with the GFS showing a stronger short 
wave and associated cold front moving through the southern plains 
than the ECMWF. For consistency sake, will trend closer to GFS with 
front pushing through our CWA Friday Afternoon. However confidence 
is low in the extended reaches of the forecast. The zonal flow over 
the CONUS is expected to settle farther south late in the weekend 
allowing arctic air to approach Sunday.  

&&

.MARINE

Scattered convection expected late tonight through early Tuesday
owing to the upper disturbance/associated cold front. Issued a 
SCA for the offshore waters for the 15z Tuesday- 00z Wednesday 
period, in response to the front, based on deterministic output 
and to a lesser extent SREF probabilities. A weak to moderate 
onshore flow will return on Wednesday and Thursday. Patchy sea fog
is possible Thursday afternoon through early Friday. Another cold
front will likely move across the waters Friday and result in 
moderate to strong offshore flow. No precipitation is expected 
with this boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    57  69  43  68  56  /  40  10   0   0  10 
Victoria          54  66  37  66  53  /  40   0   0   0  10 
Laredo            55  70  43  71  55  /  20   0   0   0  10 
Alice             56  68  39  71  54  /  40  10   0   0  10 
Rockport          57  66  47  64  58  /  40  10  10   0  10 
Cotulla           47  69  38  69  51  /  20   0   0   0   0 
Kingsville        57  70  41  71  55  /  40  10   0   0  10 
Navy Corpus       59  68  50  66  59  /  40  10   0   0  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday For the 
     following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas 
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda 
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM

959 
FXUS64 KCRP 112157
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
357 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night)...

Concur with the ECMWF/NAM prediction of 700-300mb q-vector
convergence associated with the upper level disturbance predicted
to move across CWA/MSA tonight/Tuesday. The associated pre- 
frontal trough and cold front is expected to trigger 
isolated/scattered showers over the CWA/MSA tonight/early Tuesday
(The NAM deterministic predicts PWAT values well above normal in
advance of the surface trough/front.) NAM dterministic predicts
very limited CAPE in advance of this front. However, the upper 
system may lift the mid/upper level convectively unstable layer to
generate isolated thunderstorms. Nevertheless, will restrict 
thunder to the MSA. Much drier Tuesday with PWAT values falling to
around 0.25 inch over the CWA per the NAM deterministic. Colder 
Tuesday night, yet with minimum temperatures above freezing. 
Elevated Fire Weather conditions may occur Tuesday afternoon over 
the ERN CWA, yet wind will be the limiting factor.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday Night)...

Overall beneign weather is expected through the end of the work week 
with no significant chances for precipitation as jetstream remains 
north of the region. Expect a gradual warming trend Wed-Fri with a 
return of onshore winds.  Expect highs to climb from near 70 on 
Wednesday to the low to mid 80s by Friday as low level winds become 
more southwesterly. Expect very little in the way of cloud cover Wed-
Fri, however there could be some patchy sea fog developing Thursday 
Afternoon through Friday as 60 degree dwpts return.  Models diverge 
on solutions Friday and beyond with the GFS showing a stronger short 
wave and associated cold front moving through the southern plains 
than the ECMWF. For consistency sake, will trend closer to GFS with 
front pushing through our CWA Friday Afternoon. However confidence 
is low in the extended reaches of the forecast. The zonal flow over 
the CONUS is expected to settle farther south late in the weekend 
allowing arctic air to approach Sunday.  

&&

.MARINE

Scattered convection expected late tonight through early Tuesday
owing to the upper disturbance/associated cold front. Issued a 
SCA for the offshore waters for the 15z Tuesday- 00z Wednesday 
period, in response to the front, based on deterministic output 
and to a lesser extent SREF probabilities. A weak to moderate 
onshore flow will return on Wednesday and Thursday. Patchy sea fog
is possible Thursday afternoon through early Friday. Another cold
front will likely move across the waters Friday and result in 
moderate to strong offshore flow. No precipitation is expected 
with this boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    57  69  43  68  56  /  40  10   0   0  10 
Victoria          54  66  37  66  53  /  40   0   0   0  10 
Laredo            55  70  43  71  55  /  20   0   0   0  10 
Alice             56  68  39  71  54  /  40  10   0   0  10 
Rockport          57  66  47  64  58  /  40  10  10   0  10 
Cotulla           47  69  38  69  51  /  20   0   0   0   0 
Kingsville        57  70  41  71  55  /  40  10   0   0  10 
Navy Corpus       59  68  50  66  59  /  40  10   0   0  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday For the 
     following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas 
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda 
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM