National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP Received: 2019-02-11 16:32 UTC


048 
FXUS64 KCRP 111632 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1032 AM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Extended the NPW for dense fog over Kleberg county until 18z today.
Anticipate patchy dense fog the remainder of the original NPW 
region until 18z. May need to extend portions of the Marine Dense 
fog Advisory beyond 18z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 845 AM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

Based on recent observations, and select LAPS analysis soundings,
updated to extend the dense fog advisory to include the remainder
of Nueces county, and over Kleberg and Jim Wells counties.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 532 AM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

AVIATION...

IFR to LIFR conditions continue at all terminals this morning
except KLRD due to abundant low level moisture and little if any
wind. Patchy drizzle is also expected for the terminals near the 
coast. Some improvement in visibility is likely today but cigs are
expected to remain low through the period in advance of another 
weather system. Aforementioned system will approach the terminals 
late in the period but moisture pooling in advance of the boundary
will keep widespread IFR to possibly MVFR conditions in place 
except for MVFR to possibly VFR conditions at KLRD. Boundary is 
expected to clear the terminals by 12Z but moisture will be slow 
to dissipate until beyond the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 438 AM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

Dense fog across the bays and nearshore waters will affect the 
barrier islands and locations immediately near the bays as the fog
slowly spreads inland. Improvements to visibilities are expected 
mid morning today. Weak shortwaves embedded in the mid-level flow 
ahead of the approaching trough will continue to a slight chance 
for light rain streaming across South Texas from the west. At this
time, have not really seen much of the activity reaching the 
ground which is most likely be due to drier air from near H85-H55 
aiding in evaporation. Focus shifts a bit more at the surface 
where isentropic upglide should provide a bit more activity 
reaching the surface. Maintained slight chance pops across the 
eastern CWA for light rain and showers. Only expecting rainfall 
amounts of a trace to a few hundredths of an inch. As warm moist 
air continues to flow into South Texas, patchy to areas of fog 
will likely remain across the bays and more-so across the 
nearshore waters where water temperatures remain in the mid 50s. 

For tonight, focus shifts toward the approaching trough and 
associated cold front. Models develop a pre-frontal trough across 
Deep South Texas which will aid in shifting winds a bit more out 
of the north early this evening. However, the cold front is 
expected to reach and move through South Texas about an hour ahead
and behind midnight tonight. Moisture pooling ahead of the front 
should be sufficient for increased chances for showers. A few 
thunderstorms will also be possible along the boundary itself. 
With winds becoming light ahead of the boundary, fog is expected 
to increase in coverage across the coastal region with additional 
Dense Fog Advisories for the bays and nearshore waters likely 
tonight. Behind the fropa, visibilities are expected to rapidly 
improve. 

Rain chances will diminish through Tuesday morning as the front 
pushes farther offshore and the surface high pressure with drier 
air builds in from the northwest. 

As for temperatures, leaned toward the cooler side of guidance as
winds remain rather light and weak remnants of the coastal trough
remain to the east, keeping South Texas on the cooler side of the
trough. Highs for today may still reach into the lower 70s for 
positions of South Texas, but locations toward Cotulla and then 
along the coast may keep highs in the mid 60s. The cooler air 
behind the front is not expected to really push into South Texas 
until more toward daybreak and afterward. This would keep 
overnight lows again in the 50s for tonight, with highs for 
Tuesday being cooler in the 60s for most locations.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...

Overall benign weather is expected in the extended period with upper 
flow basically quasi zonal in nature for south Texas. All short term 
deterministic models are in decent enough agreement that a blend of 
forecast solutions will be used this morning with a lean towards the 
slightly more consistent ECMWF. 

System responsible for the unsettled conditions in the short term 
period will be well to the north and east of the area by the time 
the period initiates. High pressure is expected to be over east 
Texas with offshore flow allowing dry and virtually cloud free 
conditions to prevail Tuesday night. Onshore flow does return on 
Wednesday/Wednesday night for an increase in moisture but no rain is 
expected at this time.

The next upper system is expected to move across the central plains 
Thursday/Thursday night with the associated cold front across the 
CWA early Friday morning. Moisture return look meager at this point 
and the front seems dynamically challenged so will continue with a 
dry forecast. Elevated fire danger will be a concern Friday afternoon 
in the wake of the boundary. Return flow comes back in for the 
weekend for a return of cloud cover but no precipitation chances can 
be justified at this point.

Mild to warm temperatures are expected Wednesday through Friday 
before cooler air returns behind Fridays cold front. In fact, high 
temperatures could be as much as 10 degrees above normal before the 
Fropa. MAV/MEX temperatures look reasonable and are generally 
accepted. 

MARINE

Dense fog advisory for the bays and nearshore waters continue
through noon today. May see the advisory be extended or reissued
for tonight as conditions will remain favorable for dense fog.
Generally weak to occasionally moderate southerly flow today will
become moderate northerly flow tonight in wake of a cold front.
Winds will strengthen across the gulf waters Tuesday to strong
levels with Small Craft Advisories likely needed. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the
front.

A weak to moderate onshore flow will return on Wednesday and 
Thursday. Another cold front will move across the waters Friday and 
result in moderate to strong offshore flow. No precipitation is 
expected with this boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    70  56  68  43  68  /  20  50  10   0   0 
Victoria          70  53  65  39  67  /  20  50  10   0   0 
Laredo            71  55  70  44  71  /  10  30  10   0   0 
Alice             71  55  69  41  69  /  10  40  10   0   0 
Rockport          68  56  65  48  64  /  20  50  10  10   0 
Cotulla           66  49  68  41  69  /  10  20   0   0   0 
Kingsville        73  56  69  41  71  /  10  50  10   0   0 
Navy Corpus       68  57  67  51  66  /  20  50  10   0   0 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today For the following zones: 
     Coastal Kleberg...Inland Kleberg.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today For the following zones: 
     Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...Bays 
     and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...Coastal 
     waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal 
     waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 
     NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM