National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP Received: 2019-01-12 11:35 UTC


515 
FXUS64 KCRP 121135
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
535 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 12Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

Fog has overspread the region this morning, with patchy dense fog
fluctuating at local airports. Fog will lift quickly after
sunrise as drier air enters from the north. Skies will gradually 
clear completely late this morning, with VFR conditions through 
the rest of the day. Winds will turn from the north, but will only
rise to around 10 knots this afternoon. Lighter winds and CLR 
skies will dominate the overnight hours at all locations.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 415 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019/ 

SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...

Encroaching colder air, dry air aloft, and moisture ground from
evening showers has produced fog across a large portion of
southern Texas this morning. Cold front making steady progress
into the Hill Country currently, so most of the area should see a
good amount of daytime heating this afternoon. Highs will still be
able to reach the low to mid 70s today before the front starts
sweeping through around sunset. Model blends continue to indicate
temps dropping into the low to mid 40s overnight, a good 10
degrees lower than this morning. CAA will be in full swing for
Sunday, with highs struggling to reach 60 degrees and modest
northerly breezes.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...

The GFS and ECMWF deterministic models predict an upper pattern 
characterized by a transition to quasi-zonal over the entire CONUS 
by Wednesday. Isentropic lift and high PWAT values (GFS 
deterministic) are predicted for the CWA Monday night/Tuesday and 
anticipate areas of rain/scattered showers. An upper disturbance is 
predicted to enter the west coast Thursday then move across the SRN 
Plains/TX by Friday. Most of the synoptic scale lift associated with 
this system is expected to remain north of the CWA. However, the a 
subtropical jet in advance of this system is expected to combine 
with available moisture and generate at least isolated showers over 
at least the ERN CWA Thursday/Friday. 

MARINE... 

Winds beginning to shift to northwesterly in the next few hours
with the initial wind shift line. The main push of northerly winds
will arrive after sunset tonight, with winds jumping to near 20
knots. Looking a little more likely that advisories will be
needed for the open Gulf waters, while marines on the bays will
need to exercise caution. Winds will lower back below advisory
levels by noon Sunday, with more caution advised through the 
remainder of the day for all marine areas. Isentropic lift 
expected to contribute to patchy/areas of light rain and 
isolated/scattered showers Tuesday/Wednesday. An upper jet streak 
may generate additional isolated showers/patchy light rain 
Thursday/Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  45  60  44  56  /  10   0   0  10  10 
Victoria          70  39  59  42  55  /  10   0   0  10  10 
Laredo            75  47  60  45  57  /   0   0   0  10  10 
Alice             76  44  60  43  57  /  10   0  10  10  10 
Rockport          70  45  58  44  55  /  10   0   0  10  10 
Cotulla           74  42  58  42  56  /   0   0   0   0  10 
Kingsville        77  45  61  44  57  /  10   0   0  10  10 
Navy Corpus       70  48  59  47  56  /  10   0   0  10  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning For the following 
     zones: Duval...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Webb.

GM...None.

&&

$$

XX/99...AVIATION