National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP Received: 2018-11-09 18:06 UTC


999 
FXUS64 KCRP 091806
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1206 PM CST Fri Nov 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Note Aviation Discussion below corresponding to the 18z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread light rain and isolated/scattered showers, along with
generally IFR conditions, will diminish from NW to SE this 
afternoon. MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail this
evening, with a mixture of MVFR and VFR overnight through the
remainder of the TAF period. Breezy north wind over the Coastal
Bend/Victoria Crossroads this afternoon will transition to 
weak/moderate tonight through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 616 AM CST Fri Nov 9 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation below for 12Z TAF update.

AVIATION...

A strong cold front has moved over area terminals early this
morning bringing strong north winds with gusts at and around 30 
knots. Low ceilings will remain over area terminals through the
period. IFR/low MVFR ceilings will prevail much of the morning.
Ceilings will rise to MVFR at all terminals by this afternoon.
Numerous showers will continue in wake of the cold front at and
around all terminals through much of the day. Coverage of showers
will decrease across KLRD/KALI/KVCT during the early evening
hours. More patchy rain and scattered showers will be possible
overnight at and around KCRP and KVCT though. Confidence is lower
in rain occurring over KLRD and KALI overnight, so will leave out
a mention of it during this time. However, MVFR ceilings will
still remain over all area terminals. Winds will gradually relax
to a more moderate northerly flow during the evening and overnight
hours.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 446 AM CST Fri Nov 9 2018/ 

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

A strong cold front is currently moving through South Texas, and
will begin moving across the coastal waters shortly. Numerous to
widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue along
and behind the front today into tonight. Activity will increase
across eastern portions of the region this morning with
overrunning moisture along with a passing upper level shortwave. 
The H85 front lagging behind will slowly sag into the region this 
evening, lowering, though not eliminating rain chances across the 
northwest zones overnight. By Saturday a coastal trough will 
develop. Isentropic upglide will bring more overcast skies and 
patchy light rain during the day tomorrow, with the best 
concentration along and near the coastal waters and Coastal Bend.

Today, breezy to windy conditions will develop in wake of the cold
front, bringing a brisk north wind to the region. Temperatures 
will be a little more tricky, with highs likely occurring this 
morning. Persistent cold air advection will bring falling 
temperatures throughout most of the day, dipping into the low to 
mid 50s most locations by the middle of this afternoon. (Don't
forget your coat before you leave this morning!)

Overcast skies and north winds tonight and Saturday will help to
keep the cold conditions ongoing. Lows tonight will stay down in
the upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures on Saturday will only
rise a few degrees, with highs in the mid to upper 50s.

MARINE...

A strong cold front moving through the region this morning will
bring SCA conditions to the bays and Gale conditions to the Gulf
waters today through tonight. Very strong north winds with
frequent gusts near 40 knots will occur across the Gulf waters,
and a Gale Warning is in effect from 9 AM this morning through
Saturday morning. Small craft advisories will likely be needed 
the rest of Saturday into Saturday night before a brief gradient 
relaxation. Expect very strong offshore flow to develop in the 
wake of the stronger frontal passage late Monday, with gale 
conditions possible Monday night into Tuesday. 

LONG TERM (Saturday night through Thursday)...

Extended forecast begins with a rather gray picture as a coastal 
trof and high moisture levels produces lots of clouds and 
intermittent showers, with highest rain chances east and northeast. 
Models continue to advertise a stronger impulse pushing out onto the 
Plains on Monday, driving a stronger cold front through the Coastal 
Bend. This will once again produce deteriorating marine conditions, 
and depending on exact timing, may lead to steady or falling 
temperatures Monday afternoon.

The coldest weather of the season to date is expected behind this 
significant front. As skies clear Tuesday morning and again on 
Wednesday, morning lows will dip well into the 30s. Future forecasts 
will need to analyze chances for patchy frost in typically cooler 
areas of the Victoria Crossroads west to the brush country. A 
gradual warmup looks likely toward the end of the week despite 
continuing northeast surface flow as abnormally cool air mass 
gradually gets modified.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    51  57  51  65  58  /  50  40  30  30  20 
Victoria          47  56  47  61  54  /  30  20  30  30  30 
Laredo            49  55  48  62  56  /  40  20  20  10  20 
Alice             50  55  48  62  55  /  50  30  20  30  20 
Rockport          51  59  52  65  58  /  50  30  40  40  20 
Cotulla           49  54  46  60  55  /  30  10  10  10  20 
Kingsville        51  57  50  64  57  /  60  30  30  30  20 
Navy Corpus       55  60  56  67  61  /  70  40  40  40  20 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Saturday For the following zones: 
     Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...
     Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel 
     out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 
     to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship 
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday For the following 
     zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
     Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION