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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP Received: 2018-11-09 10:46 UTC
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482 FXUS64 KCRP 091046 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 446 AM CST Fri Nov 9 2018 .SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)... A strong cold front is currently moving through South Texas, and will begin moving across the coastal waters shortly. Numerous to widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue along and behind the front today into tonight. Activity will increase across eastern portions of the region this morning with overrunning moisture along with a passing upper level shortwave. The H85 front lagging behind will slowly sag into the region this evening, lowering, though not eliminating rain chances across the northwest zones overnight. By Saturday a coastal trough will develop. Isentropic upglide will bring more overcast skies and patchy light rain during the day tomorrow, with the best concentration along and near the coastal waters and Coastal Bend. Today, breezy to windy conditions will develop in wake of the cold front, bringing a brisk north wind to the region. Temperatures will be a little more tricky, with highs likely occurring this morning. Persistent cold air advection will bring falling temperatures throughout most of the day, dipping into the low to mid 50s most locations by the middle of this afternoon. (Don't forget your coat before you leave this morning!) Overcast skies and north winds tonight and Saturday will help to keep the cold conditions ongoing. Lows tonight will stay down in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures on Saturday will only rise a few degrees, with highs in the mid to upper 50s. && MARINE... A strong cold front moving through the region this morning will bring SCA conditions to the bays and Gale conditions to the Gulf waters today through tonight. Very strong north winds with frequent gusts near 40 knots will occur across the Gulf waters, and a Gale Warning is in effect from 9 AM this morning through Saturday morning. Small craft advisories will likely be needed the rest of Saturday into Saturday night before a brief gradient relaxation. Expect very strong offshore flow to develop in the wake of the stronger frontal passage late Monday, with gale conditions possible Monday night into Tuesday. && .LONG TERM (Saturday night through Thursday)... Extended forecast begins with a rather gray picture as a coastal trof and high moisture levels produces lots of clouds and intermittent showers, with highest rain chances east and northeast. Models continue to advertise a stronger impulse pushing out onto the Plains on Monday, driving a stronger cold front through the Coastal Bend. This will once again produce deteriorating marine conditions, and depending on exact timing, may lead to steady or falling temperatures Monday afternoon. The coldest weather of the season to date is expected behind this significant front. As skies clear Tuesday morning and again on Wednesday, morning lows will dip well into the 30s. Future forecasts will need to analyze chances for patchy frost in typically cooler areas of the Victoria Crossroads west to the brush country. A gradual warmup looks likely toward the end of the week despite continuing northeast surface flow as abnormally cool air mass gradually gets modified. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 63 51 57 51 65 / 80 50 40 30 30 Victoria 57 47 56 47 61 / 80 30 20 30 30 Laredo 60 49 55 48 62 / 70 40 20 20 10 Alice 61 50 55 48 62 / 80 50 30 20 30 Rockport 63 51 59 52 65 / 80 50 30 40 40 Cotulla 58 49 54 46 60 / 70 30 10 10 10 Kingsville 63 51 57 50 64 / 80 60 30 30 30 Navy Corpus 66 55 60 56 67 / 80 70 40 40 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM CST Saturday For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas... Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM. && $$ LB/84...SHORT TERM JV/71...LONG TERM