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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP Received: 2018-10-12 09:17 UTC

FXUS64 KCRP 120917

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
417 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

Moisture will begin to increase even more through the period, with 
most areas starting to see at least a slight chance for convection 
by Saturday afternoon. for today, theta-e axis remains closer to the 
Rio Grande, then begins to shift more to the east tonight and 
Saturday. Driest air this morning will be over the NE areas and NE 
gulfmex, so do not expect to see too much in showers this morning. 
However, may see some showers toward Saturday morning over the 
southern areas before sunrise before activity spreads north and 
inland during the day on Saturday. Temperatures should warm a couple 
of degrees today and again on Saturday, and am generally going with 
a consensus forecast for highs. Am expecting generally warm and 
humid overnight tonight. Going more with the warmer side of 
guidance for low temperatures.  



Based on Rip Current Worksheet, rip current concerns should be 
moderate, so will allow the High Rip Current Risk to expire (or 
cancel early). On the other hand, water levels are still running 
over 2 feet in some locations, and do not see conditions improving 
today or by Saturday as persistent easterly flow continues. Thus, 
have decided to extend the Coastal Flood Advisory out until 18Z 
Sunday, and hopefully by then at least some areas may see 
improvement. Prefer to extend it more rather than have people expect 
improvements by Saturday morning/weekend only to have flooding 
issues continuing. Will re-evaluate situation on later shifts to see 
if things can be curtailed earlier or need to be extended perhaps in 
some locations until the big front comes down on Monday. 



Seas running 4 to 5 feet with weak to moderate onshore flow will 
keep the water levels up near the coast. However, winds or waves are 
not expected to be in the SCA or SCEC areas, but will be sufficient 
to keep the waters levels up near the coast. No significant 
convection today, with low chances on Saturday. 

Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop in wake of 
the Monday cold front, and will likely persist through the end of 
the work week.


.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...

Surface high pressure will continue to slide east with moisture 
being drawn into the CWA with the persistent onshore flow early in 
the long term. It is with the remnants of Sergio in the Pacific 
that is lifted to the northeast across the northern parts of the 
state that help increase the moisture transport over the region 
this weekend. No readily available forcing other than weak 
isentropic lift early Sunday morning then the sea breeze in the 
afternoon to suggest higher than 20 POPs for Saturday night and 
Sunday. Focus shifts to the cold front coming out of Canada and 
moving through South Texas on Monday. Overall timing is coming 
better into agreement but still vary by about 6 to 12 hours. 
Generally the front is expected to be near the northern CWA Monday
morning then push offshore Monday afternoon. Rain chances will 
increase as the front pushes through, working with PWATs of 2.0 to
2.3 inches. Lapse rates in the mid-levels will become 
conditionally unstable with strong to marginally severe storms 
possible along the front. Despite the front expected to push 
offshore in the afternoon, moderate isentropic upglide in wake of 
the front will continue 30-50% through Tuesday. A coastal trough 
then develops for the latter half of the work week keeping rain 
chances for South Texas, especially for the Coastal Plains and 
across the Gulf waters. Much cooler temperatures are expected in 
wake of the cold front with highs struggling to break out of the 
50s on Tuesday, with a gradual temperature climb thereafter. 
Overnight lows are expected to cool into the 50s, with low 60s 
along the immediate coast.


Corpus Christi    87  76  89  77  89  /  10  20  30  10  20 
Victoria          86  72  87  74  88  /   0  10  30  20  20 
Laredo            89  76  92  76  91  /  10  20  10  10  20 
Alice             89  74  91  75  90  /  10  20  30  10  20 
Rockport          86  76  87  79  86  /   0  20  30  10  20 
Cotulla           87  74  90  74  89  /  20  20  40  20  20 
Kingsville        89  75  90  76  90  /  10  20  30  10  20 
Navy Corpus       89  80  88  81  87  /  10  20  30  10  10 


TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Sunday For the following 
     zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Coastal 
     Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal 
     Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Kleberg 
     Islands...Nueces Islands.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning For the 
     following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...
     Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.