National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP Received: 2018-10-12 05:49 UTC


087 
FXUS64 KCRP 120549 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1249 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See .AVIATION section for 06Z TAFs. 

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR conditions are expected at KLRD this morning, before going
VFR around noon (17Z). Could have some MVFR at KVCT (5SM BR) and
KCRP (CIGS), but think it will be short-lived so only included
TEMPOS at this time. Winds become SE during the day after being 
either east or light northeast in the morning. Only potential for 
convection will be in the KLRD, and did include a VCTS there 
toward 13/00Z.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 651 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...

Updated for 00Z aviation discussion.

AVIATION...

A bit more moisture around tonight will lead to the potential for
MVFR cigs, especially for LRD/ALI sites overnight. Some light fog
would be possible for VCT where shallow moisture exists with less
cloud cover and lighter winds. CRP is expected to remain VFR.
Mostly VFR conditions are expected on Friday.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 346 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/ 

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...

The surface high pressure ridge from east Texas into the northwest
Gulf of Mexico this evening will weaken as it shifts to the east
on Friday with east-northeasterly flow veering to southeast. Flat
upper ridge will remain over south Texas through Friday. Tropical 
Storm Sergio, southwest of Baja California, will move northeast 
into northern Mexico on Friday and weaken. Remnants of Sergio will
move across Far West Texas/southern New Mexico Friday night.

The deeper moisture axis will remain over the Brush Country 
tonight into Friday while drier air to the northeast works its way
into the Coastal Bend. Isentropic lift will continue in the 
305-310K layer over the western Brush Country through Friday. This
will maintain a slim chance for elevated convection tonight into 
Friday for Webb and La Salle Counties. Isentropic lift will shift 
to the north of the Brush Country Friday night but will keep 
slight chance PoPs in the far northwest part of the forecast area.
The moisture axis will shift back toward the Coastal Bend Friday 
night. Isolated showers will be possible over the coastal waters 
into the southern Coastal Bend overnight Friday night. 

MARINE (Tonight through Friday Night)...

Moderate east-northeast winds will keep SCEC conditions in place
this evening. Wind speeds will diminish late tonight with winds
veering to east and then become southeast on Friday. Waves will
range from 4 to 5 feet tonight and diminish to 3 to 4 feet Friday
into Friday night.

TIDES (Tonight through Friday Night)...

Tide levels are between 1.6 to 2 feet above expected levels along
the coast going toward high tide. Levels are above 2 feet at this
time at Bob Hall Pier and Port Aransas. Bay levels are between 1.5
and 2 feet above expected levels with most areas still hovering
around 2 feet MSL. P-ETSS forecasts continue show elevated tide
levels will persist into the next high tide cycle on Friday
evening. Extended the Coastal Flood Advisory until 12Z Saturday.
This will probably have to be extended even beyond that as tide
levels are expected to remain elevated into the weekend.

Swell periods remain high at the offshore buoys with periods of 9
to 10 seconds continuing at buoys 42019 and 42020 respectively.
This has remained higher than Wave Watch model was showing for
today. Will extend High Risk of Rip Currents through the night.
Swells and periods should diminish by Friday to lower rip current
risk to moderate for Friday into Friday night. 

LONG TERM (Saturday through Wednesday Night)...

Complex forecast through the extended periods. Remnants of Sergio in 
Pacific will track across northern parts of the state on Saturday 
inducing a moisture southerly low level flow across South Texas. 
Maintained 20 POPs across the area (per drier GFS) mainly due to WAA 
showers. Not much focus for precip on Sunday but still maintained 20 
POPs considering the moist atmosphere, weak WAA and subtle 
weaknesses in subtropical jet aloft. Models keep slowing down the 
next Cold front, now bringing it through our CWA during the day 
Monday. ECMWF is slightly faster. Expect Sct Showers and 
thunderstorms along the boundary and weak isentropic lift post front 
resulting in cool overcast and wet conditions. High temperatures 
Monday will likely occur in the morning with temperatures falling 
into the low 60s during the afternoon.  Cool and damp conditions 
will then persist Tuesday and Wednesday as an inverted trough forms 
along the coast. Small Craft Advisory Conditions will be likely 
for most of the week beginning Monday afternoon, as reinforcing 
high pressure surges into the area. This welcome cool spell with 
be about 15-20 degrees below normal for this time of year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  87  77  88  71  /  20  20  10  20  30 
Victoria          72  86  74  87  66  /  10  20  20  20  30 
Laredo            77  91  76  90  69  /  20  20  10  20  40 
Alice             75  89  75  90  71  /  20  20  10  20  30 
Rockport          77  85  79  86  71  /  10  20  10  20  30 
Cotulla           74  88  74  89  63  /  20  20  20  20  50 
Kingsville        76  89  77  90  72  /  20  20  10  20  30 
Navy Corpus       79  86  80  87  74  /  20  20  10  10  20 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday For the following 
     zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Coastal 
     Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal 
     Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Kleberg 
     Islands...Nueces Islands.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning For the 
     following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...
     Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION