National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDBRO Received: 2019-02-12 20:52 UTC

FXUS64 KBRO 122052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
252 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): 500mb ridge across 
northern Mexico and the southwest United States will provide 
subsidence across the CWA tonight into Wednesday before the upper 
level ridge moves eastward across Texas Wednesday and continues to 
move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico Wed night. Surface high 
pressure will settle across the eastern half of the state tonight 
and with clearing skies and light winds across the Rio Grande valley 
late tonight...conditions will be ideal for radiational cooling but 
temperatures will remain well above freezing with lows in the 40s. 
Temperatures will rebound Wednesday as highs will reach the lower 
70s across deep south Texas with diurnal heating and an onshore flow 
returning late in the afternoon as the surface ridge moves eastward. 
The onshore flow will increase Wed night as surface low pressure 
develops on the lee side of the Rockies and surface high pressure 
moves eastward across the southeast United States. May see some 
patchy fog develop across the coastal sections of the CWA late Wed 
night into early Thursday morning with light southeast winds. 

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): Pattern remain zonal
through the rest of the week as disturbances remain well to the
north. Model have backed well off of the initial cold front 
trying to move through Texas on Friday, keeping it well north of 
the region. Southerly flow off the Gulf will continue to bring 
warm temperatures Thursday and into Friday. Weak south to
southwesterly flow buckling from the front to the north are
expected to bring temperatures well into the 80s, possibly
reaching 90 degrees out west. Southeasterly flow returns Saturday
as the front to the north dissipates. This will keep temps in the
80s, but not quite as high as Friday. Models are currently 
agreeing on the next front on Sunday arriving in the valley during
the day. The pattern shifts slightly early next week, where upper
level winds turn more from the southwest, which would induce the 
front to stall and shift to a coastal trough for Monday/Tuesday. 
Models are consistent in this pattern, so have kept modest rain 
chances Sunday through Tuesday next week.


Tonight through Wednesday night: Seas were near 4 feet with north
winds near 16 knots at buoy020 early this afternoon. Moderate 
north winds will prevail across the coastal waters tonight as 
surface high pressure settles across the eastern half of the 
state. Will word SCEC for the offshore waters this evening as 
winds/seas remain relatively high. The pressure gradient will 
continue to diminish across the lower Texas coast Wednesday and 
winds will diminish and veer to the east as the surface ridge 
moves eastward. Winds will veer to the southeast and increase Wed 
night as low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies and 
the pressure gradient increases across the lower Texas coast. SCEC
conditions will develop offshore the lower Texas coast Wed night 
as a result. 

Thursday through Sunday: Southeast flow continues through the 
period, keeping the weather pattern tranquil. Water temperatures 
may still be cool enough Thursday for marine fog to form along the
Laguna, but winds will increase on Friday to dissipate any that 
forms. The next front finally arrives on Sunday. The northeasterly
push is not expected to be overly strong, so winds will only 
reach 15 knots Sunday with passage.


BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  51  67  58  74 /   0   0   0  10 
BROWNSVILLE          48  73  58  76 /   0   0   0  10 
HARLINGEN            45  73  56  78 /   0   0   0  10 
MCALLEN              46  74  58  81 /   0   0   0  10 
RIO GRANDE CITY      45  74  57  81 /   0   0   0  10 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   55  65  61  70 /   0   0   0  10 


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ150-155-



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