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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDBRO Received: 2019-02-12 16:55 UTC

FXUS64 KBRO 121655 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1055 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate
mostly high level clouds across the CWA late this morning.
Ceilings were near 7500ft at KBRO to near 9500ft at KPIL. Expect
VFR conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley the rest of
today into tonight as surface high pressure builds into deep south
Texas in the wake of the cold front that moved through the RGV
earlier this morning.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 528 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019/ 
..12z Aviation Update...

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Conditions are changing this morning from IFR/LIFR to
VFR behind the cold front. Outside of a northerly wind shift, an
increase in wind speed, as well as a few scattered showers, pilots
shouldn't have a problem with terminals this morning across Deep
South Texas. In fact, as we continue through the cycle, VFR 
conditions look to prevail and clouds will begin to gradually 
decrease through the late afternoon and into the overnight. Winds 
should be come light and variable around or just after sunset. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019/ 

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday):A rather potent shortwave is 
currently sliding eastward across the I29 and I35 corridors this 
morning. This wave is allowing for a cold frontal boundary to slide 
southward toward the region. Looking at the 88D here at home, a very 
dynamic set up has occurred overnight with several mesoscale 
boundaries developing. These boundary look rather benign so no real 
concern except maybe perhaps a rumble of thunder offshore. It looks 
like the cold front has pushed through with all locations now 
showing a more northwesterly wind, however, it appears the density 
front, if you will, is trailing (just now approaching the northern 
Ranchlands). Regardless, cooler and drier air is on the way and 
should arrive shortly. Today, think that the high temperatures 
occurred early this morning (at around midnight), however, depending 
on cloud cover, most of the area could still easily warm later this 
afternoon. Even in mid FEB the sun angle should be just enough to 
overpower the current CAA regime originated from the Pacific. 

Overnight, skies should be mostly clear with lighter winds as high 
pressure moves across the area. Temperatures will likely drop into 
the 40s for much of the area with at least some radiational cooling 
taking place. By Wednesday, high pressure will quickly slide 
eastward across the central Gulf states allowing for winds to veer 
back to the southeast. There seems to be some balance between wind 
speed with a more easterly/southeasterly direction that may help any 
developing sea fog to move inland fairly efficiently. Still a little 
uncertain given initial moisture quality that will be transversing 
over relatively cool waters, so kept mention of any patchy fog out 
of the forecast for now toward the end of the period.  

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): A nearly zonal flow
overhead will provide subsidence across deep south Texas through
the first half of the weekend. A couple of weak fronts may drift 
into the area Friday and Saturday but not expecting much of an 
impact. Low level moisture is expected to increase somewhat across
the CWA Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front approaches the
area. The strong surge of high pressure will push into the CWA 
Sunday and Sunday night as surface low pressure forms off the 
lower Texas coast. Overrunning conditions are progged to develop 
Sunday into Monday as warm and moist air aloft moves across the 
shallow cooler air at the surface. Temperatures will remain above
normal Wednesday night through Sunday as mainly warm southeast 
flow prevails at the surface. A cooler air mass, increasing rain 
chances and abundant cloud cover will support near to below normal
temperatures by early next week. 

MARINE (Today through Wednesday): A cold front is currently (at the 
time of writing this discussion) moving through the gulf waters of 
Deep South Texas. There is a bit of a slow response in winds this 
morning. Some shower activity has developed offshore ahead of the 
front where the max boundary layer moisture was able to pool. 
Gradually, rain and clouds will decrease over the next 12 hours or 
so. Winds behind the front will be initially moderate to strong with 
the highest winds remaining beyond 20 nautical miles. Seas will also 
increase with again the worse conditions residing offshore. The 
laguna looks to hang onto cautionary wording for now in the CWF, 
however, we'll need to watch this very closely in case winds nose 
upward just a bit. 

Gradual improvement is expected by late this afternoon as a high 
pressure is expected to quickly move into the region allowing for 
winds and seas to decrease. Southerly return flow sets up again 
toward the end of the short term marine period allowing for perhaps 
additional marine fog to develop. There is still some uncertainty 
with additional sea fog concerns so we left it out of the actual 
forecast for now until we become a bit more confident. 

Wednesday night through Saturday night...Light to moderate south 
to southeast winds will prevail across the lower Texas coastal 
waters Wednesday night with high pressure across the northern Gulf
coast. SCEC conditions are expected on offshore Gulf waters 
Wednesday night and Thursday with moderate winds and seas. A weak 
cold front may drift into the coastal waters on Friday bringing a 
brief period a light to moderate north winds. Light to moderate 
southeast winds return Saturday and Saturday night. 

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ150-155-


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