National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDBRO Received: 2019-02-12 01:51 UTC

FXUS64 KBRO 120151 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
751 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...A cold front will push towards the RGV later tonight.
As this front moves through the region, the ceilings will drop
down to MVFR/IFR levels later tonight through early Tues morning.
Once the front moves through the region and the low level flow
shifts around from the north, expect the ceilings/vsbys to
improve back to VFR levels by sunrise Tues with VFR conditions
prevailing throughout the rest of the day.  


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): H5 trough currently 
across the Four Corners region will shift east through the next 36 
hours. This will induce a surface low in the northern Panhandle, 
which will sweep across southern OK tonight. An accompanying cold 
front will race across Texas, arriving in Deep South Texas between 
midnight and sunrise Tuesday. Ahead of the front, there will be 
enough llvl moisture bottled up to cause another round of fog to 
form, especially closer to the coast. The front is also expected to 
have enough forcing to tap the llvl moisture to spark some shower 
activity as it passes. With the midlevel trough remaining well to 
the north, and minimal cold air aloft, will opt to not include 
thunder with this passage. Breezy north winds will sweep in behind 
the front Tuesday morning, but airmass behind the front is not a 
cold one, so temps will still rise to around 70 during the 
afternoon. The main effect of the cold front will be noticed Tuesday 
night, with mostly clear skies and cooler air finally arriving, 
temps will fall back to the mid to upper 40s. 

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): 500mb ridge across the
western United States and 500mb trough across the eastern U.S.
Wednesday will continue to provide subsidence across south Texas.
Low to mid level moisture is progged to increase somewhat across 
portions of the state Thursday with a weak shortwave trough moving
across central Texas. Subsidence returns across the CWA Friday
even as surface low pressure across the southern plains moves
eastward bringing a cold front through the Rio Grande valley Fri
afternoon. Surface high pressure will build into south Texas Fri
night and begin to shift eastward Saturday as another surface low
develops and moves into the southern plains Sat night bringing a
stronger shot of high pressure into the area Sunday into Sun
night. Overrunning conditions are progged to develop Sunday into
Monday as warm and moist air aloft moves across the shallow cooler
air at the surface. 

MARINE (Tonight through Tuesday night): Southeasterly breezes and 
warmer waters have finally let marine fog layer mix out for the 
region for at least this afternoon. Tonight, winds will die off 
again, and with temperatures falling and thicker moisture ahead of an 
approaching front, fog formation will be a threat again for the 
laguna and Gulf waters right along the shore. This will change 
abruptly around dawn Tuesday when the next front arrives. Winds will 
shift from the north, drawing much drier air into the region. This 
will shut down the fog formation for Tuesday and Tuesday night. The 
front is expected to have some shower activity, but lightning is not 
currently expected. Winds behind the front will reach near 20 knots 
on Tuesday, so Small Craft advisories have been posted for the 
waters beyond 20nm starting midmorning and continuing through sunset 
Tuesday. The waters closer to shore will need to be monitored for 
gusty winds, but an advisory is not yet posted. 

Wednesday through Saturday...Light east to southeast winds will
prevail across the lower Texas coastal waters Wednesday with
surface high pressure across the northern Gulf coast. Winds will
veer to the southeast and increase Wed night as low pressure
develops on the lee side of the Rockies and the pressure gradient
increases across the lower Texas coast. SCEC conditions will
prevail across the offshore waters Wed night with moderate to 
strong southeast winds. Moderate south winds should prevail across
the lower Texas coast Thursday before veering to the southwest
Thurs night as low pressure moves across the southern plains. 
The surface low is expected to move eastward Friday bringing a
cold front through the coastal waters Fri afternoon. Winds will
shift to the north and increase Fri night in the wake of the
front. Small craft advisories will be needed for the coastal
waters Fri night. Strong north to northeast winds Fri night will
veer to the east and diminish Saturday as high pressure settles
across the coastal bend Sat afternoon.


GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ150-



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Short Term/Aviation...60
Long Term...62
Graphicast/Upper Air...65