National Weather Service Raw Text Product

875 
FXUS63 KBIS 042027
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
327 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

Warm conditions continue through the short term, with a few
thunderstorms possible tonight. 

Dry, warm, and breezy conditions will continue to be found across
the area through the evening. Low RH values combined with a breezy
south southeast wind will bring some near critical fire weather
conditions through the evening. A few sites may even see some
critical fire danger at times, although this should be isolated
and may not meet the time requirement of a Red Flag Warning. Thus
will hold off on any highlights for now. Natural Color RGB
satellite showing nicely wildfire smoke being pulled into the 
upper low across Montana. Look for this to enter into western 
North Dakota by this evening. Tonight, this mentioned low moves 
across the state. This could continue smoke across the west, while
bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the 
north and central. There is still some MUCAPE, modest mid level 
lapse rates, and decent shear. However, dewpoints are fairly low. 
Thus severe weather is not expected tonight, although cannot rule 
out a strong wind gusts through the night, and perhaps some small 
hail during initial thunderstorm development. Lows generally look 
to be in the 50s tonight. Dry conditions will bring only fair RH 
recoveries, especially to western portions.

Any showers or thunderstorms that develop should diminish by Labor
Day morning. The rest of Labor Day then looks to be warm and dry.
Near critical fire weather conditions could once again return,
mainly in the west where breezy west winds meet low RH. Breezy
southerly winds may linger in the east, although RH values should
remain fair. Central areas will see low RH, yet lighter winds.
Highs for Labor Day will be in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Of concern
will also be the potential for wildfire smoke. Many areas could at
least see some form of hazy conditions from smoke, while areas
across the west that get a westerly wind could see smoke lower to
the surface. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

Warm and dry conditions continue until a potential break down of 
the ridge later this week. 

Amplified ridge across the inner mountain west will continue to
maintain warm and dry conditions across the state Tuesday and
Wednesday. A weak dry front may come through sometime Tuesday
night into Wednesday, perhaps lowering temperatures a touch yet
still maintaining above normal conditions. RH values look to be
low each day, possibly bringing some near critical fire weather
conditions, although winds at this time look to remain on the
lighter side. 

Day 4 and 5 cluster analysis starting to come in line of a
(perhaps temporary) break down in the ridge as a large trough and
cold front comes through sometime Thursday into Friday. A head of
this front on likely Thursday will be warm and breezy conditions.
This could perhaps bring more near critical fire weather 
conditions. Once the front moves through sometime Thursday night 
into Friday, showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible.
The quick nature of this front will not allow for high amounts of
qpf. And a check at the CSU-MLP, the chances for severe weather 
look low at this time. Day 6 and 7 cluster analysis then start to 
differ. Many support the trough sticking around bringing cooler 
yet mainly dry conditions. There are still some hints the ridge 
returns quicker. Perhaps by the late weekend. This is currently 
reflected late in the forecast period with temperatures going from
the 70s Friday and Saturday back into the 80s Sunday. Even if the
trough lingers, a lack of moisture will provide for a mainly dry 
forecast through the upcoming weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022

Look for VFR conditions through the forecast period. Some breezy
southerly winds will be found today, diminishing later this
evening. As they diminish, some low level wind shear may be found
tonight, mainly from KBIS to KJMS. Only KBIS had high enough
confidence to place in TAF at this time. Later today, through
tonight, and possibly into Monday could see some smoke move in
from western wildfires. Best chances will come from KXWA to KDIK
and westward. Visibility should remain P6SM until winds become
westerly Monday morning. Have accounted for this in these
mentioned TAF sites. Lastly, a few showers and thunderstorms are
possible tonight across northern and central North Dakota. Only
KMOT had high enough confidence to place in VCTS at this point. 


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Anglin
LONG TERM...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin