National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDAMA Received: 2019-02-12 10:45 UTC


784 
FXUS64 KAMA 121045
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
445 AM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Main concern is for critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday,
with elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions on
Thursday.  See fire weather section below.  No precipitation is
expected through Saturday.

Northwest flow aloft begins transitioning toward zonal today, as
yesterday's shortwave trof continues moving farther east of the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.  Abundant sunshine and light to
moderate winds are expected today with highs about 5 degrees above
normal.

Gradients tighten at all levels Wednesday, with stronger southwest
winds resuming.  Increased high-level clouds will put a bit of a
damper on the warmup, but high temperatures are still expected to
reach the mid-60s to lower-70s, 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

On Thursday, a backdoor cold front moves into northeast parts of
the forecast area.  Models disagree with the strength and extent 
of front's intrusion into the area.  At this point, southern and 
southwestern parts of the Combined Panhandles have the greatest 
potential to remain in the warm air. 

Front's position remains uncertain on Friday and Saturday as well.
Northeast sections should remain coolest, with daily highs held
below 50 degrees, while lower- to mid-60s may be reached in the
southwest.

Prospects for precipitation improve beginning Saturday night as a
western CONUS trof begins deepening and moving toward the
Panhandles.  Slight chance pops Saturday night and Sunday are
confined to northwest corner of forecast area only.  Sunday night
and Monday offer our best potential for more widespread snow. 
Sunday and especially Monday expected to be much cooler.

Cockrell

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected today, as
20 foot winds are expected to remain below 15 MPH.  

Critical fire weather conditions may develop on Wednesday across 
all but the easternmost counties of the Texas Panhandle, and 
across the western two-thirds of the Oklahoma Panhandle as dry 
southwest winds increase while relative humidities fall into the 8
to 15 percent range.  A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect on 
Wednesday and Wednesday evening. 

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible on 
Thursday across the southwest half of the Texas Panhandle. 

Elevated fire weather conditions may develop on Saturday across 
the southwest Texas Panhandle.

Cockrell

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites with clear skies and 
generally light winds.  Winds will start off out of the west less 
than 10kts and then shift more southerly 10 to 15 kts after 19z. 
Generally these wind speeds and direction will hold through the rest 
of the TAF period.  Clear skies will likely prevail until few high 
clouds move in from the west after 06z Wednesday.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                58  31  69  45  68 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Beaver OK                  55  27  69  39  66 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Boise City OK              57  26  68  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Borger TX                  60  35  71  48  67 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Boys Ranch TX              60  29  70  44  67 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Canyon TX                  59  29  69  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Clarendon TX               58  32  69  46  72 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dalhart TX                 58  24  69  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Guymon OK                  56  26  69  40  67 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Hereford TX                59  29  66  43  69 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Lipscomb TX                56  30  68  43  66 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Pampa TX                   57  32  71  45  65 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Shamrock TX                58  31  67  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Wellington TX              59  31  67  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday 
     evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...
     Hutchinson...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo Duro 
     Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday 
     evening for the following zones: Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

89/03