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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDAMA Received: 2019-02-12 04:48 UTC


995 
FXUS64 KAMA 120448
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1048 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Mostly clear
skies are now set up over the TAF sites, with winds out of the
north in the 10 to 20 kt range. These winds will likely diminish
below 10 kts and become more westerly after 09z. Southwest winds
10 to 15 kts expected to pick up around 21z, and should come down
to 10 kts or less out of the south after 00z. 

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 420 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday

This afternoon will provide the only shot for the Panhandles to 
receive precipitation in the short term. Robust wave seen on 
satellite over northern New Mexico will translate eastward late this 
afternoon and evening. Southerly flow the last couple days has 
allowed at least some moisture to become present in the mid levels 
across the Panhandles. While this has been counteracted by dry 
southwesterly flow today, surface temperatures in the southern two-
thirds of the Texas Panhandle may yet reach their convective 
temperature this afternoon as the surface heats out and the mid 
levels cool slightly ahead of the wave. Probability is low, but have 
kept the slight chance mention going this afternoon. Given large 
surface temperature dew point spreads and cool temperatures aloft, 
cannot rule out a strong wind gust or stray hailstone with any 
storms that manage to develop, as virga has already generated a 61 
mile per hour gust at Dalhart this afternoon.

Tonight, cold front pushes through from the north. With clearing 
skies expected behind this, have undercut consensus guidance. 
Another round of lee troughiness sets up tomorrow afternoon, driving 
southwesterly winds as the surface. Have accordingly nudged above 
consensus highs for Tuesday, save for our northeast where winds do 
not look to pick up quite as much.

Ferguson

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday

Surface low pressure across eastern Colorado and eastern New 
Mexico will deepen Tuesday night through Wednesday resulting in a
tightening of the pressure gradient across the Panhandles. The
surface low and cold front is expected to push southward out of
the central Rockies and central Plains states by late Thursday.
Strong winds will precede the cold front and may warrant a Wind
highlight or headline Wednesday and/or Thursday. Blowing dust will
be possible in the areas of the strongest winds Thursday. Closed
upper low and trough will approach the Panhandles Thursday night
and may bring some light precipitation to the Oklahoma and far
northern portions of the Texas Panhandles Thursday night. Upper
ridge builds in over the forecast area Friday and Saturday ahead
of another upper trough forecast to approach the Panhandles by
Saturday night. Surface low and cold front will push south and
east across the forecast area Saturday night with frontal boundary
stretching north to south across eastern Colorado and eastern New
Mexico Sunday and Sunday night. Another upper trough to approach
the Panhandles Sunday night through Monday bringing chances for
additional precipitation late this weekend and early next week.

Schneider

FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
Wednesday and Thursday across much of the Panhandles.
Discrepancies in the models indicate that possibly only one day, 
Wednesday, or more likely both days will be favored for the 
increased fire weather concerns. Thursday likely to have the 
strongest downsloping west winds of 25 to 35 mph or 30 to 40 mph 
with forecast RFTIs of 4 expected. The forecast RFTIs Wednesday 
will be 5 to 6. The concern for Thursday will be the timing of the
cold front which could move through the Panhandles early during 
the day or by early evening. The minimum afternoon humidities 
Thursday will be in the 15 to 25 percent range. Otherwise, the 
lowest afternoon humidities of 5 to 15 percent will be Wednesday.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                23  58  30  66  45 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Beaver OK                  19  53  27  65  41 /  10   0   0   0   0 
Boise City OK              18  56  25  65  37 /  10   0   0   0   0 
Borger TX                  23  60  33  69  46 /  10   0   0   0   0 
Boys Ranch TX              22  60  29  68  44 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Canyon TX                  20  59  29  66  44 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Clarendon TX               24  58  32  68  46 /   5   0   0   0   0 
Dalhart TX                 17  57  24  64  38 /  10   0   0   0   0 
Guymon OK                  19  54  26  64  40 /  10   0   0   0   0 
Hereford TX                21  59  29  66  43 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Lipscomb TX                23  55  30  66  44 /  10   0   0   0   0 
Pampa TX                   22  58  32  68  46 /  10   0   0   0   0 
Shamrock TX                24  57  30  67  45 /  10   0   0   0   0 
Wellington TX              25  58  30  67  45 /  10   0   0   0   0 

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

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