National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDAMA Received: 2019-01-12 18:07 UTC


964 
FXUS64 KAMA 121807
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1207 PM CST Sat Jan 12 2019

.AVIATION...
18Z Issuance...Mix of MVFR and VFR conditions right now, but they
look to turn MVFR to IFR overnight due to low cigs and/or fog
issues. Confidence is low on how dense fog could be and how patchy
or filled in it will get. Could see conditions lower to LIFR if it
really socks in. Expect things to start improving in the late 
morning. Winds will be northerly and breezy today, and will calm
overnight. 

Beat

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 AM CST Sat Jan 12 2019/ 

SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...

Upper level storm system will continue to move away from the 
Panhandles today.  Any snow over the far northeast should end by 
12Z, so will not insert any pops in today's forecast.  North winds 
will slowly diminish this afternoon from west to east.  Highs today 
will be some 10 degrees below normal given the cloud cover and cold 
air advection behind the departing storm system.

Lows tonight should drop off into the 20s, but would not be surprised 
to see some lower temperatures on the snowpack in the north. Winds 
should be less than 10 mph.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday night...
Blocking high continues over the western CONUS with cold northerly
flow still over the Panhandles. This will keep Sundays highs in 
the upper 30s to lower 40s across the Panhandles. Westerly flow
undercutting the high pressure will try to bring a subtle impulse
across the Panhandles. Right now it looks like things will fizzle
out before any moisture makes it here. There is a slight chance of
rain/snow mix Sunday afternoon for the far west. Don't expect much
to amount from this disturbance.  

Due to westerly flow highs on Monday will be a bit warmer, upper
40s to lower 50s. Next system expected to come onshore and 
undercut the blocking ridge on Tuesday. Westerly flow will begin
to shift more out of the southwest. This will begin to advect
warmer temperatures to the area. Models have struggled for the
past several days just how warm it will be on Tuesday. For now
going with upper 50s, maybe 60. But some models do suggest that
mid to upper 60s will be possible, especially across the
southwest. The warm air may not yet make it to the northeast
Panhandles, so upper 40s to lower 50s will be possible. Warmer
temperatures will be in store for Wednesday and Thursday as the
Panhandles remain under southwest flow. The system over the west 
coast continues to curls up over the Pacific Northwest, another
system will move across California on Thursday.  

Very cold air will be setting up to surge south all next week, and
it looks like it will surge south on Thursday night into Friday.
The system over California will merge with this system over the
Panhandles sometime Friday. But timing will be everything with
this system. Right now have the cold front moving through with the
moisture, so it starts off as rain then moves to snow. This is
very tricky as we might see more or less snow based on how fast
the front moves through. We will also keep an eye on this system,
as it has the potential to be cold enough to bring very cold
temperatures and wind chills next weekend, or it might exit
quickly with mild temperatures on Saturday. So still a lot of
uncertainty with the extended, but looks like next weekend will be
the big story in the coming forecast packages.  

Weber

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

16/3