National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDAMA Received: 2018-10-12 11:20 UTC


662 
FXUS64 KAMA 121120
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
620 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

.AVIATION...
IFR cigs are at all TAF sites to start the 12Z TAF period. TEMPO 
group in place for KDHT/KGUY for IFR cigs along with BR/patchy FG
at times. Once we go past around 14-15Z Friday, patchy fog should
begin to diminish with some cigs still remaining possibly at MVFR
levels. Southerly winds currently will shift to northerly behind 
a cold front later Friday morning with sustained winds of around 
15 kts behind the front. Winds should then veer back to the east 
and southeast after 00Z of 5-10 kts with low cigs below VFR 
beginning to shift north reaching KAMA with perhaps returning to 
MVFR conditions by the end of the TAF period. In addition to the 
low cigs for KAMA, steady rainfall should move into the region 
after 00Z Saturday which will contribute to limited visibilities 
at times. Cigs will begin to lower for KDHT/KGUY with VFR/MVFR 
conditions towards the end of the TAF period. Any precipitation 
should hold off until after the TAF period for KDHT/KGUY.

Meccariello

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 359 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Upper level short wave trough will sweep southeast from Colorado 
into the central plains today.  This wave will help to bring a cold 
front south across the Panhandles today.  Also, the lift and the 
little moisture it has with it may be enough to squeeze out a few 
showers across the eastern CWA. The cloud cover is expected to 
decrease behind this departing wave this afternoon from west to 
east.  The added sunshine will actually help our temperatures warm 
above yesterday's readings as there is not much CAA behind this 
front.

Low level moisture will then start to increase again on Saturday as 
the remnants from Tropical Storm Sergio head this way.  Rain showers 
will increase in coverage as we go through the day on Saturday into 
Saturday night.  Plenty of moisture will be brought into the 
Panhandles and there will be lift from the remnant low to help 
produce the showers.  A rouge thunderstorm can not be ruled out, but 
instability is very weak.

A strong Canadian cold front will arrive in the Panhandles Sunday 
morning.  Another positively tilted short wave will dive southward 
through the Central Rockies during the day Sunday and will start to 
close off over northern Arizona by mid day Monday.  As this upper 
level short wave dives south it will help to spread cold air aloft 
over the Panhandles Sunday through Monday. Stronger upper level 
dynamics will also overspread the Panhandles which will help in the 
formation of precipitation.  As the cold air near the surface 
deepens on Sunday, rain is expected to change over to snow from 
northwest to southeast.  All areas should change over to snow by 
Monday morning. At this point it looks like the area that will see 
the best dendritic growth zone saturation will be across our far 
northwest and further to the north into Southeast Colorado and 
Southwest Kansas.  So for now have placed an area of 3 to 4 inch 
snowfall with locally higher amounts mainly across the far northwest 
Texas Panhandle and the western and central Oklahoma Panhandle. The 
rest of the region on the Caprock may see 1 to 2 inches with areas 
off the Caprock likely seeing less than one inch.

The snow will likely decrease by mid day Monday, in fact we may not 
see much precipitation at all after noon on Monday.

The cutoff upper level low over Arizona will stay there until about 
Wednesday and then it will open up and lift out to the northeast and 
it will get caught up in the northwest flow aloft and it will shear 
out over the central plains by late in this forecast.  Will leave 
the forecast dry for now, but there is an outside chance that we 
could see some showers in our eastern CWA by about Wednesday 
night or Thursday in association with this system. 

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/15