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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT Received: 2019-02-12 04:03 UTC
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562 FXUS64 KSJT 120403 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1003 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/ VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the next 24 hours. West winds of 8 to 14 knots will decrease and become northwest early Tuesday morning, then become light from the north by mid morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 513 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ VFR conditions have returned to all sites early this evening, and are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours. Otherwise, a cold front will move through the area this evening, resulting in gusty west winds of 10 to 18 knots, becoming northwest early Tuesday morning, then light from the north by mid morning. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Tomorrow) As of mid afternoon, extensive cloud cover was persisting across the forecast area. This has resulted in cooler temperatures this afternoon and lighter winds due to limited mixing. A few spotty light rains showers are still occurring across the area but this precipitation is expected to end by late afternoon. Upper trough will move across the area this evening, with an associated Pacific front moving through as well. The onset of stronger southwest winds have been delayed and will likely begin affecting western sections in the next couple of hours but are not expected to be quite as strong as previously thought. Should still see sustained winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph north and west of a San Angelo, Abilene to Haskell line through mid evening. Skies will clear from west to east this evening as drier air filters into the region. Winds will shift to a northwesterly direction overnight and diminish to around 10 mph by daybreak. Sunny and cool weather will prevail on Tuesday as surface high pressure dominates. Winds will be light, with afternoon highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. $$ 24 LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Next Monday) A dry, but otherwise eventful pattern will set up for much of west Texas for the upcoming week through the weekend. Wednesday and Thursday, strong southwest flow will bring warmer than normal temperatures to the area. During this time, fire weather concerns may pick up with the increased drying due to warm temperatures and strong winds. By Friday, models are indicating that another shortwave trough will push out of the Rockies and bring another cool airmass to the region. The strength of this feature is still highly variable as the GFS brings the colder air in much aggressively than the European. For now, chose to lean toward the colder GFS, given the past month's pattern. Regardless, it appears we'll be in for a quick recovery no later than Saturday Night with a brief warmup on Sunday. By Monday, both the GFS and the European are indicating yet another cold Canadian airmass settling in over much of the state. This time, models are also indicating an increase in moisture, which could lead to some winter weather concerns. However, models have been very finicky with features like this on Day 8 this winter, and temperatures are highly variable with this feature. As a result, we chose to go with just chance POPs for now, until models show a more consistent solution. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 36 58 37 67 / 5 0 0 0 San Angelo 35 61 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 38 63 32 67 / 5 0 0 0 Brownwood 36 60 33 67 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 34 58 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 35 60 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Daniels
562 FXUS64 KSJT 120403 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1003 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/ VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the next 24 hours. West winds of 8 to 14 knots will decrease and become northwest early Tuesday morning, then become light from the north by mid morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 513 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ VFR conditions have returned to all sites early this evening, and are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours. Otherwise, a cold front will move through the area this evening, resulting in gusty west winds of 10 to 18 knots, becoming northwest early Tuesday morning, then light from the north by mid morning. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Tomorrow) As of mid afternoon, extensive cloud cover was persisting across the forecast area. This has resulted in cooler temperatures this afternoon and lighter winds due to limited mixing. A few spotty light rains showers are still occurring across the area but this precipitation is expected to end by late afternoon. Upper trough will move across the area this evening, with an associated Pacific front moving through as well. The onset of stronger southwest winds have been delayed and will likely begin affecting western sections in the next couple of hours but are not expected to be quite as strong as previously thought. Should still see sustained winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph north and west of a San Angelo, Abilene to Haskell line through mid evening. Skies will clear from west to east this evening as drier air filters into the region. Winds will shift to a northwesterly direction overnight and diminish to around 10 mph by daybreak. Sunny and cool weather will prevail on Tuesday as surface high pressure dominates. Winds will be light, with afternoon highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. $$ 24 LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Next Monday) A dry, but otherwise eventful pattern will set up for much of west Texas for the upcoming week through the weekend. Wednesday and Thursday, strong southwest flow will bring warmer than normal temperatures to the area. During this time, fire weather concerns may pick up with the increased drying due to warm temperatures and strong winds. By Friday, models are indicating that another shortwave trough will push out of the Rockies and bring another cool airmass to the region. The strength of this feature is still highly variable as the GFS brings the colder air in much aggressively than the European. For now, chose to lean toward the colder GFS, given the past month's pattern. Regardless, it appears we'll be in for a quick recovery no later than Saturday Night with a brief warmup on Sunday. By Monday, both the GFS and the European are indicating yet another cold Canadian airmass settling in over much of the state. This time, models are also indicating an increase in moisture, which could lead to some winter weather concerns. However, models have been very finicky with features like this on Day 8 this winter, and temperatures are highly variable with this feature. As a result, we chose to go with just chance POPs for now, until models show a more consistent solution. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 36 58 37 67 / 5 0 0 0 San Angelo 35 61 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 38 63 32 67 / 5 0 0 0 Brownwood 36 60 33 67 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 34 58 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 35 60 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Daniels