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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT Received: 2019-01-12 04:28 UTC
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229 FXUS64 KSJT 120428 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1028 PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/ Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity has moved out of the area with drier air moving in behind it. There are still areas of MVFR and local IFR ceilings at southern and eastern locations at this time. Expect these low clouds to persist through a few more hours late tonight before the dry air can move through the entire region. Low clouds should clear the area by sunrise or shortly after with only some upper level clouds expected tomorrow. Winds will become northwesterly tonight, picking up and becoming gusty tomorrow. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 741 PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019/ UPDATE... Made a quick update to the forecast to increase PoPs across the area north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line, for the band of showers and thunderstorms which has moved east into the Big Country and northern Concho Valley. This band of convection is just ahead of a cold front. Farther to the east and south, the band of showers from earlier today has exited all but far eastern Mason and San Saba Counties. Reduced PoPs across the southern part of our area behind this band of showers. Keeping a slight chance across the Northwest Hill Country, where an isolated shower remains possible prior to Midnight. 19 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 540 PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Showers have moved east of most TAF sites early this evening. There are still some MVFR and isolated IFR ceilings that are expected to linger into the evening hours, especially for the southern sites. Additionally, scattered thunderstorms may affect the KABI terminal for a few hours this evening. Behind the rain, winds will shift to the northwest, bringing drier air into the area, and clearing out the low clouds after Midnight tonight. Expect mainly clear skies and gusty northwest winds tomorrow across the area. 20 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CST Fri Jan 11 2019/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Saturday) Early this afternoon, a sharp upper level trough axis was moving east over Colorado/New Mexico and a surface low was moving into the Texas Panhandle, with southerly winds bringing increasing amounts of moisture up into West Central Texas ahead of a cold front to our west. The lift from the trough and increased moisture (precipitable water up to 1 inch) has been resulting in an area of rain/rain showers across the western Edwards Plateau, Concho Valley and Big Country through the early afternoon hours, bringing around 0.10-0.25 inches of rain with local amounts of 0.50 inches. A few lightning strikes have occurred as well. As the trough and cold front continues to move east, rain will spread eastward through the rest of the forecast area this afternoon into the early evening, with isolated thunderstorms possible as mid level lapse rates reach 7 deg C/km. Behind the cold front tonight, conditions will dry and skies will clear, except in the Big Country where a vorticity maximum swings through south of the upper closed low, and so hi-res models show some showers and thunderstorms moving into that region. Overnight lows look to be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. By sunrise Saturday morning, all precipitation in our area should have ended, with a dry, sunny day expected as higher surface pressure moves in. Expect highs Saturday in the 50s. LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Much colder temperatures are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning, behind a cold front that is forecast to move across West Central Texas Saturday morning. Increasing clouds are expected Sunday morning, with overnight lows generally in the low 30s. Below normal temperatures are forecast on Sunday, with highs generally in the 40s. Another cold morning is expected on Monday, with temperatures stating off in the upper 20s to lower 30s. A slow warm up is anticipated next week, with highs on Monday and Tuesday generally in the 50s and highs for the middle to latter part of the work week back into the 60s. Expect generally dry conditions to continue through Wednesday. On Thursday, the GFS is indicating a weak short wave trough tracking across the forecast area, resulting in isolated to scattered showers. The ECMWF continues to be much drier, so for now have kept PoPS below 15 percent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 39 51 31 45 / 50 0 0 0 San Angelo 42 56 30 48 / 20 0 0 0 Junction 46 60 30 50 / 20 0 0 0 Brownwood 42 53 30 44 / 40 0 0 0 Sweetwater 40 51 31 44 / 50 0 0 0 Ozona 42 57 30 49 / 10 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$