National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOUN Received: 2019-02-12 05:43 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KOUN Products for 12 Feb 2019 View All AFD Products for 12 Feb 2019 View As Image Download As Text
449 FXUS64 KOUN 120543 AAB AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Norman OK 1143 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019 .AVIATION... 12/06Z TAFs. IFR/MVFR conditions will continue across central and northern Oklahoma terminals for first few hours of forecast before rapid clearing is expected with VFR then prevailing. Gusty northerly winds also forecast to decrease fairly quickly overnight, before picking back up with mixing a few hours after sunrise. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ DISCUSSION... 00Z TAF discussion. AVIATION... Continue to see some MVFR and even IFR conditions central into northern Oklahoma for a period this evening with mainly VFR elsewhere. There will also be a short period of thunder at a few sites (central & north) early in the forecast. A strong cold front will sweep through the area this evening with strong gusty north winds developing behind the front. At the same time, ceilings will rise and dissipate with VFR conditions across west by 06Z and then into central corridor by 12Z. Winds will diminish by late in the forecast period. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019/ DISCUSSION... Convection is increasing in the Texas panhandle and these showers/storms will spread into Oklahoma. Additional development will be possible near and ahead of the front as it moves through. Some hail will be possible with the strongest storms given relatively low freezing levels. This area of precipitation will move out overnight. Temperatures will warm mid-week with elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions possible out west Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Another cold front will move through Thursday night bringing colder weather for Friday and the weekend. The GFS complicates the late week scenario with the new operational run bringing a closer upper low across northern Oklahoma. But this is an outlier both among the medium-range models and the other GFS ensemble members, only one of which brings that scenario. So, will not by in on this scenario at this time. But did add some low POPs north given that and some hints at QPF development north even with the ECMWF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 33 54 34 63 / 70 0 0 0 Hobart OK 30 56 33 65 / 30 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 34 57 35 67 / 20 0 0 0 Gage OK 25 57 30 68 / 30 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 29 52 30 63 / 70 0 0 0 Durant OK 38 57 34 65 / 40 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 11/14/30