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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOUN Received: 2018-11-09 00:06 UTC
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317 FXUS64 KOUN 090006 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 606 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018 .DISCUSSION... && .AVIATION... IFR conditions in low clouds will persist much of the night over central and western Oklahoma with some MVFR ceilings in southwestern Oklahoma. Clouds will clear quickly from the north Friday morning giving moderately gusty north winds and VFR conditions the rest of Friday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018/ DISCUSSION... The primary forecast issues continue to be a widespread freeze expected Friday night into Saturday morning and the chance for winter precipitation Sunday night into Monday. For this evening, rain and drizzle will move to the east as the upper-level trough axis passes by. Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing across northern and west central Oklahoma tonight. Therefore, will maintain the current Freeze Warning that is in effect. Another cold day is expected on Friday with highs ranging from the low 40s F across the northeast Oklahoma to low 50Fs across western north Texas. These temperatures are around 15-20 deg F below average for this time of year. Friday night into Saturday morning, a widespread freeze is still expected with the coldest low temperatures of the season. Light winds, clear skies, and low dew points will provide an environment favorable for radiational cooling. A hard freeze (temperatures <=28 deg F) is currently forecast to occur across almost all of Oklahoma. Temperatures near the Oklahoma/Kansas border may drop into the upper teens. Expanded the Freeze Watch to include the rest of the western north Texas counties as forecast lows are at or below freezing in this area. Another cold, below- average day is expected for Saturday afternoon. For Sunday night into Monday, the ECMWF and GFS are in better agreement with orientation of a positively-tilted southern stream trough that will pass by the area. Ascent from this wave will result in the development of precipitation. Preceding the approach of this southern stream trough, a northern stream trough will result in a cold front passing through the area Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Cold air advection behind this front is expected to result in a rain to snow transition zone as the cold air deepens. Even though the the overall synoptic features are similar, there is still uncertainty where the greatest ascent and attendant precipitation will occur. Specifically, the GFS is more amplified with the northern stream trough. Consequently, the ascent and moisture associated with the southern stream trough is shifted farther south (along with the precipitation). The uncertainty on the trough evolution is represented by the large spread among ensemble data. For example, the 08/00Z ECMWF had a range of snow from 0" to 5.2" at Gage, Oklahoma (with an ensemble mean of 1.7"). The bottom line: Rain transitioning to snow is likely somewhere Sunday night into Monday; however, the location and exact amounts are too early to determine. Otherwise, Monday will be quite cold with steady and/or falling temperatures in the 30s F. Gusty northerly winds will result in wind chills in the teens and 20s F. The temperature forecast has much greater confidence than any snowfall amounts/locations. After another cold day Tuesday (with a widespread hard freeze in the morning), warmer weather is expected by Wednesday and Thursday of next week as mid-level heights rise and southerly winds return across the area. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 33 47 24 47 / 20 0 0 0 Hobart OK 33 51 26 48 / 20 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 38 53 29 49 / 20 0 0 0 Gage OK 29 46 25 51 / 20 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 30 42 21 45 / 50 0 0 0 Durant OK 41 50 29 48 / 30 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for OKZ004>024-035. Freeze Warning from 9 PM Friday to 10 AM CST Saturday for OKZ004>048-050>052. TX...Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for TXZ083>090. && $$ 23/09/09