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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOUN Received: 2018-10-12 09:20 UTC
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092 FXUS64 KOUN 120920 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 420 AM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018 .DISCUSSION... Strong isentropic ascent continues to result in numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms across most of the region. Additional development is expected throughout most of the day along and south of I-40 before the deep shortwave trough to our north swings into the upper midwest this afternoon. Temps will remain well below average today thanks to the rainfall and expansive cloud cover. Main concern for this forecast will be heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Sergio early Saturday morning into Saturday night, and then again late Sunday through Monday morning near the Red River as strong isentropic ascent develops ahead of a closed low over the SW CONUS. A Flood Watch may be needed for at least tomorrow but will pass this onto the day shift for further analysis of timing, etc. Another concern with the forecast early next week will be freezing temps on Mon and Tue morning, especially across NW OK. A ~1030 mb surface high will move into the Southern Plains during this time. The coldest temperatures are expected Tue morning with clear skies and light winds present under the surface ridge. Frost also appears possible as dewpoints fall a couple of degrees below freezing along and north of I-44. Some light snow will likely fall over northwestern OK Monday morning but do not anticipate much if any accumulation. Monday will be and feel very cold, with wind chills in the teens and 20s expected thanks to breezy north winds behind the cold front. Wind speeds may need to be adjusted upward if trends continue. At least low rain chances will linger through the entire week along and south of the Red River as several mid level shortwave troughs within SW flow ahead of the closed low impact the region. Overall, a wet and cold pattern is expected to continue for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 62 47 53 51 / 50 10 90 30 Hobart OK 66 49 55 51 / 40 30 90 20 Wichita Falls TX 68 54 59 55 / 80 50 90 30 Gage OK 63 43 56 44 / 20 10 50 40 Ponca City OK 58 42 56 47 / 80 0 60 30 Durant OK 64 54 62 59 / 90 20 80 70 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 25/03