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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOAX Received: 2022-12-22 11:39 UTC
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786 FXUS63 KOAX 221139 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 539 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 537 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 Updated forecast to transition Winter Storm Warning to a Winter Weather Advisory. Visibilities have greatly improved at most areas. Don't doubt there will be patches of reduced visibilities in open areas, but certainly not worthy of a Winter Storm Warning headline. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 Key Messages: - Dangerously cold wind chills continue today with values as low as 35 to 45 below zero through Saturday. Frostbite can occur on any exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. - Snow will move out of southern counties this morning. - Despite low snowfall amounts, blowing and drifting remains possible due to strong northwest winds gusty to 35 to 45 mph. Visibilities will likely be reduced in open areas. .Today: Snow continues to fall across southeastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa early this morning where visibilities have dropped to a 1/4 mile for an hour or so at some locations in snow and blowing snow. Visibilities are variable across the region with some areas in northeast Nebraska, where the snow has ended, reporting around 3/4 mile while others are greater than 6 miles. Intentions are to keep headlines as is (Winter Wx Advisory in the north, Winter Storm Warning in the south, and Wind Chill Warning entire area) and after daylight, we can decide if conditions have improved enough to downgrade the warning. Think the advisory area will hold for the most part, but don't doubt there are some significantly reduced visibilities in open areas. The snow band across southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa will continue to move east/southeast out of the forecast area by 8 am. Continued gusty northwest winds up to 35 to 45 mph will create areas of blowing and drifting across the region today. Expect overall visibilities to improve, but open areas may still see some significant restrictions. In addition, with the extreme cold, wind chill values of -25 to -45 will continue. .Tonight into Friday: Gusty northwest winds will continue through this period with wind chill values remaining in the -25 to -40 range with highs on Friday in the single digits above and below zero. .Saturday through Sunday: Winds will diminish as a 1043 mb arctic ridge of high pressure moves overhead. Although we will see relief in wind chills as winds diminish, highs on Saturday will only remain in the single digits in our north to the mid teens in our south. Weak upper ridging does build in from the west bringing warming to the area from west to east into Sunday. Highs by Christmas Day should range in the upper teens in our western Iowa counties to the mid to upper 20s across eastern Nebraska. .Sunday night and Monday: Upper ridging is short-lived with another clipper system dropping southeast out of the Canadian prairies Sunday night. This could provide a brief chance of light precipitation to portions of the area late Sunday night into Monday morning. .Tuesday and Wednesday: Westerly flow aloft will bring in warmer air where highs across the area increase into the 30s on Tuesday and possibly 40s by Wednesday and beyond. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 While snow has cleared all three TAF sites, strong northwest winds will cause reduced visibilities in areas of blowing snow. Ceilings are generally MVFR across the forecast area, with patches of clearing to VFR. Clouds should continue to shift east, with heights improving by noon today. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Saturday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ011- 012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Saturday for IAZ043-055-056- 069-079-080-090-091. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ043- 055-056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ UPDATE...Kern DISCUSSION...Kern AVIATION...KG