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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMQT Received: 2019-04-19 08:10 UTC
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832 FXUS63 KMQT 190810 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 410 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 332 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019 Quiet day across Upper Michigan with much more sunshine than we saw Thursday though it could take most of the morning to part with shield of mid-high clouds over the east half. The sun will allow interior west to warm up to near 60F, or almost 20 degrees over the cool readings observed Thursday. High pressure building in will keep gradient north- northeast winds over eastern half of forecast area. Given the gradient winds will be flowing in off chilly Lake Superior, expect readings along immediate Lake Superior shore east from Marquette to the east, including at Munising and Grand Marais, to not break lower 40s. Dry airmass building in and mostly sunny skies will result in strong/deep mixing so kept RHs falling into the 17-22 pct range. High pressure overhead tonight with light winds and dry airmass. Preferred lower end of guidance into the lower 20s over interior west and central and mid 20s to lower 30s elsewhere. Overall looks like pleasant tranquil weather with primary issue continued higher flows on some rivers. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 408 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019 During the long term, a lower amplitude, split flow pattern will be the rule across the CONUS/southern Canada. With a more zonally oriented northern stream flow that keeps cold air bottled up well into northern Canada and allows Pacific air to spread across the CONUS, temps across Upper MI each day this weekend thru next week will be around normal or above normal. The warmest day will be Saturday when high temps could reach into the 60s across much of the west half. Of course, there will be the usual chilly conditions along the Great Lakes, depending on the wind direction from day to day. Fortunately with regards to pcpn, the more dominant influence of the northern stream should mean a drier pattern that won't aggravate snowmelt runoff that will be continuing through the period. A couple of shortwaves passing across northern Ontario early next week may generate some showers, but likely nothing of significance. Two more northern stream shortwaves may affect the area next week, one midweek and the other late week. Neither of these waves should produce significant rainfall. Meanwhile, in the southern stream, a trough will drift across the CONUS during next week. While this trough should not impact the weather here, it will be a feature to monitor. If the trough or any energy ejecting from it tracks far enough north or links up with the northern stream, more significant rainfall could spread into Upper MI. Beginning Sat, expect a warm day, especially over western Upper MI under southerly winds. With sfc high pres ridge still over eastern Lake Superior/eastern Upper MI and northern Lake MI during the day Sat, it will be cooler along the Lakes though it may warm up quite a bit near Lake MI before winds shift onshore. Will be cool along Lake Superior from n central Upper MI into the Keweenaw as winds back under developing lake breeze wind component. Over the w, a continued dry air mass and late morning 870-850mb temps around 5C will support temps rising well into the 60s. Some of the traditional warm spots may touch 70F. Given the still very dry air aloft available to mix to sfc, will likely utilize local mixed dewpoint tool to realize lower sfc dewpoints. Interior min RH may fall to 14-20pct Sat aftn. As non-forested areas/grassy areas continue to open up with snow melting away, these areas will become more vulnerable to drying, and thus possible fire activity. Shortwave moving across northern Ontario Sat night/Sun will send associated cold front across the area. Front should reach into western Upper Mi late evening/overnight, be over central Upper MI at 12z Sun and then exit the e during the aftn. Some showers will be possible in the vicinity of the front. ECMWF continues to trend farther n with energy ejecting from the southern stream trough over the western CONUS in addition to having a more favorable upper jet configuration in the upper level confluence zone across northern Ontario early next week (better right entrance upper diffluence over the northern Great Lakes). As a result, it has been trending toward a wetter scenario Sun night into Mon than either the GFS or the NAM. There is some support for the ECMWF solution from the operational Canadian and its ensemble members. For now, given continued model uncertainty will maintain just higher chance pops for late Sun into Mon time frame. The next northern stream wave will pass through on Tue but by that time a sfc ridge will be overhead and model soundings depict a very dry airmass in place so not expecting pcpn. Another shortwave then moves across northern Ontario late week and brings another weak cold front across the area with a chance of showers in the Thu-Fri time frame. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 135 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019 VFR conditions will continue through the period at all sites. There will be some ground fog in and out of IWD overnight. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 332 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019 Quiet stretch of weather. Winds will remain below 20 knots into much of next week. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...Voss AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLA