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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMAF Received: 2019-03-21 08:45 UTC
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429 FXUS64 KMAF 210845 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 345 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019 .DISCUSSION... After clearing yesterday afternoon, low clouds have returned to much of the area as low level moisture is on the increase. Temperatures have fallen mostly into the 40's this morning and likely won't move much more before sunrise. Mid level flow will back to the SW today as an upper trough that moved onto the West Coast yesterday moves east. Moisture will back up against the higher terrain where a few showers and storms are possible this afternoon. Otherwise, the majority of the area will remain dry with temperatures climbing back into the 60's. The upper trough weakens and lifts north Friday, but not before bringing a good chance for rain to parts of the area. A dryline will develop over the higher terrain with relatively moist and cool conditions east of the boundary. A narrow instability axis still looks possible near and just east of the mountains Friday afternoon and shear profiles look most favorable over SE NM. Though isolated, this will be the best location for strong to maybe even severe thunderstorms as areas further east look to remain too stable. Models have trended down on QPF coverage as much of the upper level energy stays to our north. Even so, we should see at least scattered showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-10 Friday evening. Westerly flow will bring warmer and drier conditions for the weekend with temperatures above normal for a change. A cold front is still due to arrive Monday with temperatures falling slightly. Temperatures then warm late next week with continued dry conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 69 51 68 53 / 0 0 50 50 Carlsbad 62 51 76 40 / 30 40 30 10 Dryden 70 55 74 55 / 10 10 40 40 Fort Stockton 67 53 75 49 / 10 20 50 30 Guadalupe Pass 55 47 68 43 / 30 50 20 10 Hobbs 64 49 67 43 / 10 30 60 40 Marfa 67 46 73 39 / 20 30 30 20 Midland Intl Airport 68 51 67 51 / 0 10 60 50 Odessa 67 52 68 50 / 0 10 60 40 Wink 68 53 69 46 / 10 30 50 30 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 10/29