National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2017-12-18 08:19 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KIWX Products for 18 Dec 2017 View All AFD Products for 18 Dec 2017 View As Image Download As Text
136 FXUS63 KIWX 180819 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 319 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 314 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 Cloudy skies and patchy drizzle can be expected today as highs reach well into the 40s. Drier air will filter into the region Tuesday through Thursday with temperatures remaining above normal. A cold front then brings a good chance for rain later Friday into Friday night, followed by colder and mainly dry conditions this weekend. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 314 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 A combination of low level moisture advection and weak/brief dcva tied to a low amplitude wave will bring chances for patchy drizzle/light rain today...especially near a lingering sfc front across northern zones. Drizzle/light chances diminish with time in the afternoon as subtle upper wave exits, though low lvl boundary in the vicinity and ample moisture could keep some activity going. Overcast/mild otherwise with enough flow to preclude much of a fog threat. && .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 314 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 Northern stream energy through the Northern Great Lakes/Ontario will force a cold front through the local area on Tuesday. Pacific airmass to follow won't result in much of a cool down behind this into Tuesday night/Wednesday. Also not expecting any pcpn with the frontal passage itself on Tuesday given overall dearth of moisture and far northward bypass of any mid/upper level forcing. Pattern then undergoes significant amplification late week into the holiday weekend as -EPO ridge into the Northeast Pacific and Alaska forces deep mean troughing into the Western/Central US. Tight thermal gradient and overspreading height falls/jet energy on the leading edge of this upper trough likely induces lee-side cyclogenesis Thursday...with eventual downstream ejection northeast into the Great lakes. Deep southwesterly flow in advance of this developing low pressure system should finally tap Gulf of Mexico moisture to generate a decent rain event by later Friday/Friday night along the system cold front. Any warm advection pcpn should remain mainly north of the area on Thursday with temps once again above normal late week. Colder/more seasonable air then overspreads in the wake of this system into the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1253 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 A mild and moist airmass will continue to spread north over the area and be accompanied by areas of drizzle and patchy fog. Lingering snow cover at SBN will help accentuate fog development. Given the moisture flux into the area, IFR conditions may not improve until this afternoon. The break in the lower clouds may be brief as moisture continues to spread northeast ahead of a weak front. For now, have kept VFR conditions at SBN later this afternoon into this evening, but not entirely confident that the lower clouds will scatter out. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel SHORT TERM...Steinwedel LONG TERM...Steinwedel AVIATION...Skipper Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana