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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2017-10-18 23:45 UTC
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461 FXUS63 KIWX 182345 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 745 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 High pressure will remain across the region through Saturday and will maintain dry and mostly clear conditions. Low temperatures by daybreak Thursday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with afternoon highs reaching into the upper 60s to middle 70s, but a bit cooler near Lake Michigan on Thursday. The next chance of rain will arrive on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 No sensible weather concerns through the short term as behemoth ridge and associated dry/stable airmass remain entrenched over the eastern CONUS through Sat. High latitude trough/front will pass to our north overnight and this will maintain a decent gradient overnight and may support some high clouds in the morning. Main impact of this will be milder lows tonight. Some slight warm/moist air advection ahead of this front and persistent gradient should keep lows in the upper 40s/around 50F. Postfrontal CAA is minimal and confined to Michigan. Highs may be a little cooler near the lake with weak W/NW flow but still mid 60s there and low 70s in our south. Expect sunny skies by afternoon. && .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Ridge rebuilds aggressively late tomorrow into Friday as next Pacific trough crashes into the western CONUS. Dry and sunny conditions will persist on Friday with highs creeping into the mid 70s. A few more clouds possible by Sat but WAA/SW flow also increases with another day in the mid 70s. Forecast for Sunday and Monday still uncertain with Canadian and, to a lesser extent, the 12Z ECMWF indicating a much slower/more closed off solution. GFS and majority of its ensemble runs remain much more progressive, similar to the 00Z ECMWF. Maintained likely PoPs on Sunday with good CVA and theta-e advection ahead of the front. Not enough instability to introduce thunder mention but could see some modest (around 0.25 inches) rainfall. Forecast confidence decreases drastically for Monday and stayed close to concensus PoPs for now. Secondary trough digs into the Great Lakes but question is whether or not it will arrive quick enough to phase with lingering wave to our south. Regardless, do expect colder temps and persistent rain chances for the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening) Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Only flight concern is for modest low level wind shear, especially across northwest IN into southwest/south central MI as southwesterly low level/2000 ft jet ramps to about 40 knots overnight atop stable boundary layer. Otherwise domination by high pressure surface/aloft will provide VFR conditions, potentially through Saturday. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Murphy SHORT TERM...AGD LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...Murphy Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana