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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDHGX Received: 2018-10-11 15:17 UTC
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397 FXUS64 KHGX 111517 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1017 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .DISCUSSION... Everything is looking good with the forecast, and only a couple insignificant changes were made on the morning update. We will see some clouds moving across the area from west to east. Look for lower humidities this afternoon with dew points in the mid 50s to lower 60s and the northeast winds in place. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/ AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]... Mid level clouds have developed over south Texas and moved into the area this morning. Mid level clouds look to hold on through the day but likely remain SCT. VAD wind profile from KHGX 88D shows N/NE winds around 30 knots at 1000-2000ft AGL. Suspect winds will begin to mix in the next couple of hours. TAFs will show 10-15 knots of wind with higher winds along the coast. There could be a few gusts. There may be some wind shear issues from now until 14-15Z but not enough to have mention in the TAFs. Winds should decouple in the evening becoming less than 5 knots overnight. Overpeck PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 357 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/... SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)... It has been a long time since a surface analysis over SE Texas has shown northerly winds and high pressure over the southern Plains. Temperatures over SE Texas this morning are in the 60s finally and not just the upper 60s but the low 60s with even a few 50s up towards Crockett. Upper level analysis has basically a broad trough from the northern Plains through the Great Basin with the jet stream coming from the southern Rockies through the Great Lakes. This is helping move now Tropical Storm Michael across the Carolinas and out into the Atlantic around the Bermuda high. For SE Texas this means quiet conditions with high temperatures in the 70s/80s. Return flow from the Gulf should set up tomorrow into Saturday. Overpeck LONG TERM (Friday through Thursday)... Winds start to become onshore again on Friday, allowing for some moisture to return and high temperatures to creep back up into the mid 80s across most of the area for Saturday and Sunday. Rain chances also increase Saturday night into early next week with another cold front passage. Expect showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along the cold front itself, which should push through late Sunday or Sunday night. Although this front is fairly strong and expected to knock temperatures down quite a bit, it is also very shallow, with SW flow remaining in place near and above 850mb for several days after the surface frontal passage. This will keep conditions quite cloudy with chances for rain lingering in the forecast through midweek. The combination of the cold air mass and overcast conditions will keep high temperatures pretty cool Monday and Tuesday with some of the far northern zones struggling to climb out of the 50s. Temperatures gradually start to rebound heading into the second half of the week. 11 MARINE... Swells from Michael have subsided quite a bit but there is still a mix of swell/wind wave across the Upper Texas Coast. Offshore winds should allow for lower tide levels today into Friday. The threat for rip currents should also be lower today with the lower seas and offshore winds. The current plan is to allow all coastal and marine hazards to expire this morning. High pressure moves east allowing for east and then southeast winds Friday into Saturday. Southeast winds increase to around 15 to 20 knots Saturday afternoon and night. Caution flags may be needed, but these winds will also build seas and likely increase the threat for rip currents. Tide levels may again push above normal with high tides Saturday evening. This may be another coastal flood event and we will need to monitor tide levels over the weekend. Synoptic models have slowed down the next front to be more on Monday instead of Sunday. Offshore winds should peak Monday night into Tuesday as a result. Overpeck && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 78 59 81 65 84 / 0 0 10 10 20 Houston (IAH) 81 61 81 65 85 / 0 10 10 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 79 71 80 74 83 / 0 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$