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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDGRR Received: 2020-05-22 05:47 UTC
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949 FXUS63 KGRR 220547 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 147 AM EDT Fri May 22 2020 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu May 21 2020 - Mostly Cloudy With a Few Showers Friday - Increasingly Warm and Humid Holiday Weekend - Stalled Front To Bring Showers/Storms Next Week && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu May 21 2020 - Mostly Cloudy With a Few Showers Friday - Fair wx will continue tonight but clouds will gradually increase from the south late tonight as suggested by ir/vis sat trends and high res model guidance simulated ir sat progs. The upper low currently over the TN Valley region will continue to drift to the nne and bring fairly extensive cloud cover Friday along with a few showers. The relatively best chance for showers will be over our se fcst area in closer proximity to the upper low center. - Increasingly Warm and Humid Holiday Weekend - Fair wx is forecast for much of Saturday with weak sfc/upper ridging in place. A warm front in conjunction with an upper level disturbance will bring potential for a few showers and storms Saturday night into early Sunday. A much warmer and more humid airmass will be in place by Sunday and Memorial Day with high temperatures reaching the lower 80s and dew points rising to the lower 70s by Monday. At this time a medium range guidance consensus suggests fair wx is likely for most of Sunday and Sunday night. The chances for showers and storms will increase just a bit for Monday as the increasingly warm and humid airmass with a sfc and upper trough to our west. Having said all this it should be noted that we expect fair/dry wx for the vast majority of the holiday weekend. - Stalled Front To Bring Showers/Storms Tue/Wed - A stalled out frontal boundary will likely focus development of showers and storms Tuesday through midweek. Dry wx will return late in the week as that boundary moves out of our region. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 141 AM EDT Fri May 22 2020 Low level moisture will be abundant today leading to impacts for the TAF sites. IFR and possibly lower conditions look likely for the southern TAF sites of KAZO...KBTL and KJXN. How far north those conditions go is less certain. Outside of any IFR today will feature abundant MVFR cloud cover. There could even be some shower activity...especially around KJXN. An onshore wind around KMKG could result in a bump in the ceilings there. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu May 21 2020 Easterly winds will continue late this week into the weekend and result in minimal wave heights. However, higher water levels may persist due to recent heavy rains as well as prolonged easterly winds supporting flow from Lake Huron into Lake Michigan through the Straits. A few thunderstorms could pose a hazard to mariners Saturday night through Memorial Day. Areas of dense fog are also likely to develop Sunday through the rest of the holiday weekend as a much more humid airmass overruns relatively cold lake waters. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu May 21 2020 Many of our rivers have now crested, or will be very soon, and begun a slow fall after the heavy rains from earlier in the week. The exception is on the Grand River, where the crest is currently located near Ada. Minor flooding is expected in Ada and Grand Rapids, with crests expected in the next 12 hours. Flood-prone locations in Comstock Park are currently experiencing major flooding, with roads, basements, and homes flooded. Meanwhile, as the crest continues down the river, a crest is expected tomorrow in Robinson Township, with moderate flooding of streets and some homes expected. Overall, this crest is expected to be the most significant on much of the Grand River since the flooding experienced in February of 2018. Here are some of the noteworthy crests experienced so far on the Grand River: Ionia: 7th highest crest on record (1.20 feet less than 2018) Lowell: 8th highest crest on record (1.02 feet less than 2018) Ada: 4th highest crest on record so far (0.99 feet less than 2018) Comstock Park (forecast): 7th highest crest (0.65 ft less than 2018) Grand Rapids (forecast): 5th highest crest (1.17 ft less than 2018) Robinson Twp (forecast): 6th highest crest (0.48 ft less than 2018) The threat for rain returns to our area on Saturday night, with the chance for rain and storms continuing into next week. At this point we are not anticipating enough rain to affect the falling trend that will be in place by late this weekend on all of our rivers. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Laurens DISCUSSION...Laurens AVIATION...MJS HYDROLOGY...AMD MARINE...Laurens